​​​​​​​Lebanon faces two crises: Beirut explosion and economic collapse

The high cost of rebuilding Beirut port

In this regard, the journalist in economic affairs, Mahasin Mursal, said to our agency: “Initial estimates of the port disaster stood at half a billion dollars, before the Governor of Beirut raised it to a number ranging between 3 and 5 billion dollars, then it jumped once to 15 billion, reaching the limits of 30 Billion. "

The Lebanese economic affairs journalist added, "I adopt the theory that losses are estimated at 10 billion dollars, especially since the Central Bank said that there are 80 percent destroyed areas, and between 50 and 70 housing units are completely destroyed."

From crisis to crisis

Mursal continues her interview with by saying: “One of the priorities in the event of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund is to reassess the damage in order to be an accurate figure to estimate the financial losses in the Beirut port. We are not moving from one crisis to a solution, but rather from one crisis to another. A financial gap of about 241 thousand billion pounds, according to Lazar's plan, but today, after the disaster, this number will definitely exceed 350 thousand billion. "

Mursal affirms that "the reconstruction of Beirut port is a sensitive issue due to its nature, strategic location, and the extent of parties influence over it. Therefore there is a tendency to privatize the port, but we are still under the shock. With the days on, it will get clearer, some companies will bid to enter the BOT system." )). Reconstructing the port and investing it, with the Lebanese state obtaining a percentage of the revenues, and then after a period of time the state will recover the management of the port.

With regard to the aid, the Lebanese journalist specialized in economic affairs confirms that the donor countries were clear that this aid is relief and will not be delivered to the government because of lack of confidence in it and NGOs and civil society associations. "

Lebanese pound to decline

The international reports have warned that the Lebanese GDP will shrink by about 20 to 25 percent this year, far exceeding a recent expect by the International Monetary Fund for a 12 percent decline due to the worsening economic and political crisis, after the Beirut port explosion.

Analysts warned of the difficulty of Lebanon's success in securing financing, at a time when officials estimate the extent of damage at billions of dollars. In their reading, analysts emphasized that the explosion highlights the government's negligence, and puts more pressure on the government to speed up reforms in order to obtain the necessary assistance to rebuild the economy. Despite the widespread sympathy with Lebanon this week, it has been noticed that no aid commitments have been provided so far, except for emergency humanitarian support.

Economists expected a further erosion of the purchasing power of the Lebanese currency, which has lost about 80 percent of its value since October, amid astronomical inflation exceeding 56 percent, thus fueling social tensions.

"We think that the explosion may delay the reform process, as the government tries to shirk responsibility which will erode the political capital necessary to make difficult reforms, but they are badly needed," said Patrick Curran, chief economist at Tilmer Research in Britain.

The Lebanese are on the verge of Hunger

The British "Financial Times" newspaper warned of the repercussions of the explosion of the port through which 80 percent of imports reach the Lebanese food, at a time when Beirut is under the weight of an unprecedented economic, monetary and financial crisis, in addition to the outbreak of the "Corona virus."

The newspaper quoted the volunteer chef in Gemmayzeh, "Yasmina", as warning that things are going for the worse, as she commented by saying: "People will suffer, people are hungry. The 36-year-old girl also warned of acts of violence in light of the popular anger cast on the ruling class."

In this context, the newspaper touched on the rise in food prices with the collapse of the lira and the madness of the dollar, warning that the situation will worsen, given that experts expect that the repair work of the port, where the wheat sundries are located will take months. The newspaper quoted the United Nations World Food Program as warning that "The severe damage inflicted on the port of Beirut may limit the arrival of food supplies into the country and raise the prices of foodstuffs beyond the purchasing power of a large number of Lebanese."

In view of the damage caused to the Beirut port, all eyes are directed to the port of Tripoli, which is 80 kilometers away from the capital, as the Lebanese authorities hope to use it to fill the import gap. In its report, the British newspaper stated that the capacity of the Port of Tripoli to unload ships and containers is half that of the Port of Beirut, not to mention that it has been suffering from neglect since years.

While some assert that the potential of the port of Tripoli is great, especially in terms of the depth of its basin which enables it to receive huge vessels that no other port in the eastern Mediterranean can handle, and the open marine spaces in front of the port, which allows the reception of large numbers of ships and their easy rotation, in addition to equipping it with two huge cranes, allowing to unload goods quickly.

The general manager of the National Flour Mills Company, Anas al-Shaar, complained about the absence of a building for storing grain in the port of Tripoli, and revealed that his company had proposed in 2013 the construction of "state-of-the-art" slums in cooperation with a Swiss company; however, the government did not allocate land to implement the project.

Half of the Lebanese are steeped in poverty!

The Agency of France-Presse published a report in which it dealt with the chronology of what it described as the "economic collapse" that Lebanon is witnessing, noting that Lebanon is witnessing the worst economic crisis since decades, characterized by an unprecedented decline in the value of its currency that plunged half of the Lebanese people into poverty.

The economic collapse, which has led to massive dismissals of employees, is causing a significant price hike in the country, which has witnessed an unprecedented popular uprising for several weeks since the fall of 2019 against a political class that is seen as corrupt and incapable of putting an end to the acute economic crisis.

Shy popular protests

The dire economic situation in the country, the weakness of the governments and the country's institutions, and their inability to find a way out for the Lebanese people have been a major cause of widespread protests since last October throughout the country. The protests in the country continued for months in succession, before the spread of the Corona epidemic which forced them to stop, to return to the exit in the past two months after the Lebanese currency fell and the banking crisis in the country deepened.

The protests that took place in more than 70 cities and towns around the country were and are still denouncing the government corruption in the first place, and the austerity measures and the lack of infrastructure, especially the potable water and electricity which are cut off on a daily basis in the country.

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