Russia and Iran, coordination and competence shadowed by Syria

Lately, talks on the Russian –Iranian rivalry in the Syrian Crisis is being growing that is being denied by officials in the Syrian Government, as they eager to find a balance between their two supporters. 

The Syrian Crisis and the Iranian and Russian Interferences

With the onset of the Syrian Crisis, Russian – Iranian rivalry in the Syrian arena increased, especially after the collapse of the regime of the Libyan president Mu'amar Gadhafi, where western countries used to support Arab Uprisings while Russia took the side of regimes. 

After great progress made by factions of the Syrian Free Army in 2013, and controlling many cities in Syria, Iran interfered in Syria via bringing in men and arms, but that did not suffice to deter armed factions from advancing further, even to the heart of the Syrian capital, Damascus. 

Such rapid developments brought in Russian military interference in the Syrian Crisis at the end of September 2015, that was followed by a visit to Russia, by the commander of the al-Qudus Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards at the time, Qasem Soleimani, where he persuaded Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu, that interference in Syrian has become decisive, for the Syrian Government was receiving painful inflictions from the armed factions all over the country.

The First Step

The first step in setting up Russian –Iranian relations on the Syrian soil was commenced in 2016, when the two sides agreed to set up a joint military and security center in Syria, to provide military and security consultations to the Syrian Government and groups loyal to Iran and Russia.

That was followed by the second step, where in January a bargain was signed with the cost of 21 billion U.S. $, covers satellite equipment, planes, memos on consolidating relations on the military training, and holding military manoeuvres jointly, and supporting the national security in the two countries, and combating the so-called terror, that conduced in February 2016 handing over by Russia to Iran of S300 missiles.  

Russian – Iranian relationship in Syria was based on the the enemy of my enemy is my friend, for in that period the relationship between the two countries in Syria underwent a breakthrough, for since 2011, Iran had the procure and counsel in the Syrian Crisis, in recruitment, training and deployment of forces, and delivering of sums to the Syrian Government that were arriving from different parts, while Russia become the decider in the political arena for the Syrian Government.  

The part's strategy

Russia

Russian policy to interfere in Syria was as a kind of the face keeping strategy towards the keeping up by the United States of America of Russia to regain it's role in the international arena, and to show that it is still present in the international community interactions, and to send a message to the willing countries to hold alliances outside the western hemisphere, implying that Russia is dependable.

Since interference in the Syrian Crisis, Russia had certain incentives, for Syria enables it to reach the warm waters, it has made clear in it's ancient stances that it accepts the partnership system and to settle issues in Syria, and it may be appeased to depose Bashar Assad by bargains that achieve it’s interests, and in that course it gave allowance to Israel to launch strikes and raids inside Syria without objection. 

Regarding shape of the government and the regime in Syria, Russia never shows any support to anybody, fir it backs Bashar Assad to remain in power in the transitional period, while it affirms that state associations should be kept, and that all foreign forces be withdrawn from Syria, and to keep it's influence after Bashar Assad's departure. 

Iran

From her part, Iran from the start of the Syrian Crisis looked at events as it's interests implies, and it adopted the Shi'ization policy in the areas it occupied, and spared no efforts from the onset to keep Bashar Assad in power, and deterring groups of the Muslim Brotherhood to gain power. 

Iran was eager to Syria from a vital strategy that pushed the protection line to the borders of it's enemies, for the last defence line is the Iranian borders, then Iraq, followed by Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, via depending on small political groups gave allegiance to Iran. 

Iran used to spread anarchy in Syria, and opposing any Kurdish trend that raises the level of demands in Syria, and continuation of the political regime in the body of Bashar Assad, or any figure from any section but Sunni, and giving support to the permanence of the state associations, and adjourning the evacuation of foreign forces and mercenaries from Syria, that guarantees a leading position in that country.

Uniting and disuniting factors

Russia and Iran have in common certain points, in Syria, that are: combating any faction work and activate in Syria that adopts  any Islamist trends, even if not classified as terrorist, that is factions that are backed by Turkey primarily the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham( the al-Nusra Front formerly).

Russia endeavored to reduce the probability of appearance by any Islamist powers in the Caucasus, that may endanger it's territorial integrity, as to the form of the political system and continuation of the Bashar Assad's government that is a priority to Iran, that never concerns Russia.    

Iran believes that exit by the militants from Syria is a blow to it, for the majority in Syria is Sunni, particularly events in Iraq trend to find a balance in the foreign policy of Iraq, and to obstacle any probable unofficial flow of the resources to back the Iranian activities, that may serve the Iranian project in future.  

In relation to the cooperation extent, it relates to the coordinating roles supervised by Russia, and the eagerness to control Syria, that implies contradiction of the Russian and Iranian aims, that is anarchy, from hence the two countries aims contradict.

It is well known that the Russian – Iranian dispute arouses from the Israeli approach, for Russia, according to Iranian officials, has never been to the side of the Iranians with relation to Israel, as statement by Hisein Jaberi Ansari, former deputy Iranian Foreign Minister in March confirmed that, where Ansari confirmed that there are difference in viewpoints between Iran and Russia in relation to Israel, indicating at the same tile there are common interests with Russia in Syria. 

From it's part, Russia has never denied that it opposes the Iranian agendas regarding Israel from the Syrian soil, that led Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, to state that Iran is not an ally to Russia, and that his country never underestimates the importance of measures taken that may guarantee a strong security for Israel, that is one of Russia's priorities.  

Daraa

In spite of the recession of the struggle intensity in the Daraa Governorate, and settling the security in southern Syria after control by Syrian Government Forces on the region in July 2918, but a hidden struggle in that region appeared in that region in September, between Russians and Iranians and the Hezbollah affiliated groups and the Syrian Government, due to extending their influence spheres.    

A big role was played by Russia in that period to deter attack by Syrian Government Forces on Daraa, after all negotiations between the government and citizens failed, after which Moscow made proposition to the people in Daraa to join the Pro- Russian armed groups 

While Russia was trying to de-escalate tension in the region, Iran was urging the Syrian Government to launch a military operation in Daraa for the southern area poses strategic importance to her, where Iran endeavors to find a stepping point close to the Israeli border that gives it a pressing card in case undergoes an attack by Israel, the same point that is opposed by Moscow. 

This struggle has never undergone any massive military encounter, rather it was excluded to technical differences and sharing the influence spheres, that led to the deaths of many leading and active figures in the Syrian Government in the area, and to the extension of the Iranian influence, that was apparent in setting up military bases in the area, to set off a new circle of the Russian and Iranian interests on the deployment map in southern Syria.  

Deir al-Zor

The city of Deir al-Zor and that of al-Bukamal two primary fields for Iranian activities since 2017, after ISIS mercenaries were expelled, and Tehran's interest in the region fountains from it's eagerness to connect all networks and activities that extend from Iraq to the city of al-Bukamal on the Iraqi –Syrian border and westward to Lebanon, and to give assistance in sponsoring it's operations in Syria and to form the ''Shi'ite Crescent'' in the region, setting off from Deir al-Zor on the Iraqi – Syrian border.  

Russia from it's part, hurried up after ISIS was collapsed hastily to control some parts in the Deir al-Zor Governorate, of which many villages undergo activities by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Pro-Iranian Groups, and it's primary priority was to safeguard strategic sites such as the Military Airport that completes it's presence in airports. 

The Russian – Iranian dispute in Deir al-Zor and the al-Bukamal was commenced on May 25^th, 2020, after Russian ambassador to Syria, Aleksandr Yefimov, was appointed by Russian president Vladimir Putin as a special representative for Syria, to strengthen the relations between the two countries.

The step taken by Russia was proven later that aims at Iran, where via appointment of the special representative for Syria, Aleksandr Yefimov, to put pressure on Bashar Assad and bridle the role played by Iran in the Syrian political arena, by supervising the daily activities of Assad and informing the Kremlin on all his steps.  

Iran was harmed by Russia's taking possession of the Syrian economic assets, especially in the Syrian coastal area, that has been linked to the Iranian project in the region, in addition to increasing bids by Russia to strengthen it's control of  North Eastern Syria, the area through which Iran endeavours to advance to the Mediterranean.    

Russia has never stood up to the Iranian power completely in Deir al-Zor, may to adjourn the inner disputes with Damascus and Tehran, and even though, there are precursors of a probable encounter between the two sides. 

In April, Russian Forces conducted a patrol in al-Mayadine, probably to send a message to the Po –Iranian Groups implying that it endeavours to control the oil resources to the south of the city, such as al-Werd Fields, to that, Moscow tries to reign Iran's influence in al-Bukamal, where proxy fighters such as al-Fatimiyoun Brigade and Hezbollah Battalions are stationed in big numbers.   

Russia was accused by Iran of bombarding it's military headquarter bases in al-Bukamal, meanwhile, Russian and Iranian sites underwent some strikes that never been adopted, that arose a state of uncertainty between the two sides.  

Moscow suspicions came to light in 2017, where high ranking generals of the Syrian Government backed by Russia, such as Isam Zahraddine and Suhail Hasan, the ''tiger'', were targeted. 

Tensions were aggravated the constant campaign by Israel of striking Iranian and the Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria, up to date, Iran enjoys relative freedom in Deir al-Zor, hose aspirations have never faded away, but the various strikes against it' proxies and forces pushed it to change it's positions sometimes, and weigh heavy military losses.  

To that, Russian has the ability to deter such attacks by Israel, if desirous, but it gives a blind eye to that, whatever Russian intentions, negligence by it on this front increased tensions with Tehran.    

Russia tries, particularly after the killing of Qasem Soleimani, leader of the a-Qudus Force, and deputy to the IRAQI Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis early in January, to take the chance and assume leadership and appear as the procure and counsel that was confirmed by visit of Russian president Vladimir Putin to Damascus.  

Competing Issues

In this relation, political analyst and expert in international relations in the Mu'tah University, Dr. Iyad al-Majali says:'' the limit and balance of the Syrian understandings seem via the course of this relations that affect many issues to rivalry primarily, rivalry that was based on particles reflect the interests of two countries by geopolitical agendas of the Russian project from one side and the Iranian from another''.    

Al-Majali made clear to ANHA that the escalation and intensity of Russian – Iranian rivalry in the last years were reflecting the geopolitical developments in events of the joint military operations to combat terrorism from one side, and the forces of the opposition from another.  

Political analyst and expert in international relations indicates that in spite of the Russian – Iranian alliance that was in the arena of coordination and collaboration, reservation in in achieving the aims was never absent, for each one has it's private aspirations, and it seems that developments on the regional made Iranian and Russian aspirations extend in Syria, with the pivotal difference of the approach to employ field reality and the political balances according to each of them. 

Iranian extensionist policy  

Al-Majali added that :'' Iran in such relation adopted the policy of expansion in Syria, in addition to supporting the political realities in the context of an real estate ideology by investing politically the nature of developments to include other regional parts, according to it's strategic mechanisms that contributed to limit the Russian and Turkish movements in Syria to a great deal''. 

Al-Majali noted that the Russian – Iranian relations depend on coordinating their policies in all challenges in the Syrian geography in search of achieving political and economic interests, surmount to partnership and understanding in relation to the Kurdish Cause in particular, and working together for the sake of disallowing creation of a Kurdish State in North Eastern Syria, to set up from this as a foundation stone for strengthening such a relation to reduce the influence of the Syrian Opposition and the role played by the U.S. in the Syrian Crisis.     

Al-Majali stressed that the form of relations between Russia and Iran give more justifications to achieve their aspirations broadly, and these precursors appear openly via the manoeuvres by the two sides and show the necessity of the period in the Middle East in such a time.

Iranian bids restricted by Russia

Al-Majali mentioned that Moscow revived many issues in Syria to reign Iran and Turkey, as Syria is subject in all issues to constant Russian – Turkish – Iranian understandings and coordination.

Al-Majali says that such relations pose duality and coordination from one side, and encounter and >>>>>>>تقاطع  from another, according to the reality on ground and the political developments of all parts, that give a political cover to protect the gains made by all parts of influence and extension on the Syrian soil, not excluding the economic issues and gains made by parts of the Syrian oil and gas, in addition to the political pressure on the active powers in the region.

L.A.

ANHA