The intensity of the conflict in the Middle East has escalated to a stage now referred to as fighting on the edge of the abyss, following a new trajectory in this struggle, particularly between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah. This shift comes after the detonation of communication and wireless devices and the assassination of leaders within the party, in addition to the heavy bombardment of its supporting environment.
Although Iran considers Hezbollah to be its crown jewel, the statements from Iranian officials have fallen short of expectations, seemingly reflecting an attempt to avoid being drawn into this war. This was evident in their lack of response to the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, as well as their efforts to engage in dialogue with the United States regarding the Iranian nuclear file. This was articulated by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who confirmed that his country is ready to hold talks about its nuclear program in New York.
In this regard, Dr. Iyad al-Majali, a researcher in international relations and Iranian affairs at Muta University in Jordan, describes that these "indicators and the scale of escalation and the ongoing conflict in the region between Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel on two separate fronts demonstrate a situation of accelerating events that truly represent what is called a proxy war, which both Tehran and Washington use as powers and other parties and arms for confrontation and fighting, instead of direct intervention, in order to avoid being drawn into a comprehensive war between them, so that the conflict does not escalate into a major regional war with high political costs."
Al-Majali pointed out that "both parties (Tehran and Washington) are using this conflict and proxy war along with deterrence equations that are framed in accordance with the regional orientations of both the United States and Iran in the region."
The researcher in international relations and Iranian affairs believes that "Iran does not wish to intervene directly in the confrontation with Israel in Lebanon, nor does it want to get deeply involved in a regional war with uncertain outcomes. At the same time, it does not want its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria to carry out operations that would cause it additional embarrassment."
"He attributes this to the fact that they use a brinkmanship strategy in addressing the scene and the developments of the conflict in search of political gains to pressure the United States and civil society, aiming to politically exploit this conflict and demand privileges for their share in achieving interests in the region, lifting economic sanctions against them, and returning to the nuclear agreement."
He pointed out that Hezbollah, on the other hand, "understands the existing regional context and operates within this framework by escalating and raising the level to a situation of limited-impact missile strikes, while enduring the harsh Israeli response to them."
He pointed out that the nature of the ongoing escalation and conflict will remain within the framework of controlled skirmishes managed by Washington and Tehran, through proxies, without reaching a state of full engagement leading to a comprehensive regional war.
He concluded by saying: "If this conflict drags on and Israel intensifies its actions in Lebanon and Gaza against civilians, then the second American-Israeli target after Gaza will be Lebanon and Hezbollah; because it has become a strategic target for Israel, which needs to rid itself of this nightmare, thereby clipping Tehran's claws and removing the Palestinian issue from Iran's files and strategy in the region."
T/ Satt.
ANHA
