Factors that help ISIS's survival; return of extremism further

Terrorism specialists likened the circumstances and factors that led to the emergence of ISIS/ Daesh to the current circumstances and warned that existing international conditions would be a fertile environment for the return of extremist groups, and that ISIS's continued survival was in the absence of a clear strategy to eliminate it.

Factors that help ISIS's survival; return of extremism further
24 March 2024   04:03

It has been 5 years since the SDF announced the geographical defeat of ISIS mercenaries in their last enclave in al-Baghouz town, but all evidence confirms the continuation of their crimes and their movement. Although its presence is not the same as in the past, its cells have access to difficult-to-reach areas.

Perhaps the most significant factor that led to the return of ISIS mercenaries to be active in North and East Syria region is Turkey's ongoing attacks on the territory and its targeting of leaders who have played a prominent role in the geographical elimination of ISIS, such as Martyr Jian Tolhidan.

ISIS mercenaries have launched violent attacks in several regions of Syria, Iraq and many countries around the world, most recently on a concert near Moscow claimed by ISIS mercenaries Khorasan, on March 22, which has left more than 160 dead and wounded so far.

Regarding the violent and bloody operations committed by ISIS mercenaries since early this year and the manner in which it exploited the Syrian crisis and the international conflict to expand its influence, the terrorist specialist Hassan Abu Haniyeh explained that: "ISIS/Daesh has had its own power and historical experience since its inception in 2003, in many circumstances and has maintained a well-established structure that enables it to expand and spread its influence in countries including Syria."

Abu Haniyeh argued that: "ISIS is adept at using conflicts and exploiting conflicts, and in fact the root causes of the group's proliferation remain in Syria, as long as there are no signs of any final solution."

On the factors contributing to ISIS's survival, despite the geographical eradication of its presence, Abu Haniyeh noted: "The elimination of ISIS geographically and spatially dominated has not made it possible to eliminate it once and for all; International and American reports indicate that the organization has adapted to the new situation and returned to function as a decentralized organization, that is, it has no spatial control, but it has structural organization and uses guerrilla tactics and attrition. "

Abu Haniyeh stated that the goal of the formation of the International Coalition led by the United States of America was to remove ISIS mercenaries from its areas of control, as classic spatial wars of control, and said: "There were no counter-insurgency tactics to pursue the group, there was even targeting the leaders, nor was there a clear strategy to eliminate the organization once and for all."

Abu Haniyeh noted that: "The objective of the coalition was to eliminate its spatial control. Since March 2019, after being removed from its last spatial control in al-Baghouz, the organization" ISIS" has returned to work as an organization, thus operating decentrally in Syria, maintaining a proven pattern of operations, sometimes intensifying and sometimes decreasing, and maintaining its presence."

Abu Haniya attributes "the reason why the organization has always existed, to the lack of a clear strategy to pursue it, as an organization rather than as spatial control"

Abu Haniyeh noted: "International attention to the file of terrorism has declined, to the emergence of geopolitical conflicts among nations."

Addressing the Syrian conflict and regional conflicts, Abu Haniyeh said: "The organization exploits these subjects, there is no political solution and there are regional conflicts, and there are more problems, all of which make the organization preserve its structure and is able to recruit, disseminate its narrative and maintain its pattern of existence, and grow with international disputes and unrest in the Middle East region."

"ISIS awaits appropriate opportunities, maintains good operational financial reserves and the region's total instability makes it able to re-generate and return again."

It's not over until we talk about him coming back.

In the view of extremist movements and international terrorism researcher Munir Adib, the current environment is similar to the environment that led to the emergence of ISIS, he said: "The environment is fertile for the return of the organization. We always say that the organization is not over until we talk about its return, and it still exists and is able to carry out armed and qualitative operations in many areas, not just on the Iraqi border or even Syria."

He said: "The wars and conflicts that have struck the world undoubtedly affect counter-terrorism efforts. Thus, wars lead to the reinforcement of ISIS's presence and the re-emergence of its activity. ISIS remains and will continue to be a threat to international peace and security. It will remain in the Middle East as long as wars and conflicts are spread"

As for the limitations in ending the danger of ISIS mercenaries, Adib noted: "There may be a local and regional role, there may be a regional role, but what I fear most, which may be the reason for the existence of ISIS and extremist organizations, that the international community has not played its role in countering ISIS".

He continued: "Even more serious is that there are some States that directly or indirectly support or confront the organization. This gives strength to the organization or allows the organization to exist, transit, movement and activity, and therefore this is one form of support, and here we are not talking about shortcomings, but about a real crisis.

with the participation of the international community, which led to the existence of the ISIS Organization and to its modification, the Organization has grown exponentially and is affecting the security of the world."

On the mechanism to be followed to end the threat and presence of ISIS mercenaries, Adib called on the international community to develop a strategy and, before it was developed, there must be a dialogue on its provisions, so that it would be agreed between all States of the world and all those facing this "extremist group".

"This dialogue may take time, but confrontation must be appropriate and consistent with the nature of the form of States facing such ISIS orgs., There should be awareness of the seriousness of ISIS, political objectives and interests should be set aside and resolutions adopted by the Security Council; If a State supports whatever kind of support ISIS and other extremist groups, all such organizations are a threat to the security and integrity of this world ".

Adib stressed: "The need for a clear definition of terrorism by the international community, that all extremist organizations pose a threat, in the sense that if al-Qa 'idah, ISIS, the Islamic Armed Group, other organizations, the Jabhet al-Nusra and other organizations see them and place them on the terrorist list, and there are those who see them not as terrorists but as Islamic opposition forces."

Mounir Adib stressed: "If a general and comprehensive definition is developed that is mutually agreed upon, it may eventually lead to general agreement and lead to the elimination of these organizations, if this strategy is developed and embraced by international institutions such as the United Nations and the Security Council and sponsored by the major Powers, then I think we will completely eliminate these organizations; Because we are going to cut off the supply artery that is coming from States that may be beneficiaries, I mean States in the international community or major States that may be beneficiaries of this presence.

T/ Satt.