Causes, consequences of the confrontation escalation in the Middle East

The Middle East region is witnessing a situation of anticipation and tension following the high level of escalation between Israel and Iran, where Tehran and the Lebanese Hezbollah continue to promise to respond to the killing of the head of the Hamas political office, Ismail Haniyeh, and a prominent Hezbollah leader.

The researcher in international relations, Dr. Tariq Wehbe, spoke to ANHA's agency about this by saying: "The tension began after October 7, 2023, and the doctrine of the unity of the squares worked to implement it, but on its own, Hezbollah opened the front of the rules of engagement with Palestinian factions and even an Iraqi coming to train in the fighting in Lebanon, and then the opening of the Syrian front, specifically the Golan, was completed, after which the Houthi forces decided to enter the military theatre, all of which by taking out an Iranian who was unprecedented under the slogan of war by mediation." 

"Israel has adapted to this situation, but its primary concern has been to suppress resistance in Gaza, which it has not yet been able to do."

Iranian insistence on the response and eye on the southern suburbs of Beirut 

We have noted that "Israel is working on all fronts, most importantly the killing and assassination missions of the individuals it considers responsible for all that it is witnessing now or tomorrow. These actions are the ones that raise the escalation, and we have seen this when it bombed the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. The Iranian response was the 100 rockets and drones fired from Iran and elsewhere, but they have proved to be capable of opening a far-reaching front that could be supportive if all the forces that are called the forces of resistance and spark that have raised the roof of the confrontation are to assassinate the former head of the Government of Palestine and head of the Hamas political office, martyr Ismail Haniyah. Here, I would prefer to say that Iran has been humiliated, where the most important guest representative of Hamas was killed in the building of the Revolutionary Guard."

He added that "the decision to respond was collective in that all factions came together to acknowledge that the response was coming, and that the loss of Haji Mohsen (Fouad Shukar) was considered by Hezbollah ' s Secretary-General, Mr. Hassan Nasrallah, to have crossed the Red Line. Arouri was assassinated in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, preparing for a similar incident in July 2006. " 

He promised that "this escalation will bring us to a real and realistic confrontation, as was the case in July in terms of military seriousness, but there is an element of time, according to military and economic political data, as Israel will bear 33 days, such as 2006, only if American interests and the United States' involvement in this conflict are struck as an essential party, especially since the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthi have held America responsible for the lack of a solution based on international law and, in particular, the two-State solution."

A week of intense war. 

"As a result, we will witness a week of the intense and difficult war, and humanitarian the result will be dead, wounded and displaced again, after the week we will enter international mediation, and here we will see who will be able to stop the war of response, the answer and the state's near and distant positions." 

He pointed out that "the new Middle East has no place for extremism, so it may be the stage of its liquidation in all States, including Israel. This is even more difficult because the Israeli Government is the most extreme in the history of that State. The path of normalization and peace sought by America and Israel is between manipulation and waste for as long as there is no real solution to the Palestinian State."

Conflict continues. 

With regard to the effects of the war, Wehbe pointed out that "this confrontation will not be the last, but it will exhaust the belligerents in the East at all levels. All the countries that will be involved in the conflict will retreat implicitly, Israel, but only the United States of America can stop the bloodbath, but it is now busy with the upcoming presidential elections. The Zionist lobby is working very hard to defend the Zionist State and its presence despite the nose of the world and no mechanisms for calm unless the confrontation changes and goes abroad to assassinate personalities close to Israel or Israeli non-residents in Israel. There is also fear in the West that individual wolf movements will return that will make Western societies afraid of the future." 

He concluded by saying: "International balances remain the same as America has always led the Israel Defense Front, and unfortunately in the other part there is no policy in return other than the drums of war."

T/ Satt.

ANHA