The Middle East chessboard President Biden is inheriting

The new Biden Administration is inheriting a Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean region that has been torn asunder. Ravaged by proxy wars, inter-imperialist ambitions, sectarian religious rivalry, ethnic revanchism, and geopolitical positioning; many nations are in a precarious state of uncertainty. That volatility has caused the formation of new undeclared alliance blocs with ‘strange bedfellows’, as former rival states align together for survival on a larger chessboard, where the proverbial king and queen pieces extend from the White House to the Kremlin, and from Paris’s Elysee Palace to Ankara’s Presidential Complex.

Predictably, one question on everyone’s lips in the region is what a Joe Biden Presidency will mean for them? With many wondering how US strategy will vary from President Trump? Whereas Trump was as an unpredictable deviation from usual American foreign policy—guided by everything from his own financial interests in Istanbul, to delusions of grandeur which cast him as the only man who could bring “peace to the Middle East” and secure Israel’s future by assassinating Iranian Generals—President Biden in many ways represents a return to ‘normalcy’ with regards to traditional US hegemony. However, the geopolitical reality of the region that President Trump inherited is not the same one he is leaving his successor.

The most obvious difference is the degree to which Tayyip Erdogan’s regime in Turkey has been allowed to set the region ablaze as part of his neo-Ottoman expansionism, which has caused these alliance blocs to form. For example, in just the last two years, Erdogan’s belligerence has led him to threaten nearly every ethno-nationality within bombing distance, whether they be Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks, Cypriots, Egyptians, Libyans, Saudis, Emiratis, and even the French.

Of course, such words were matched by the Turkish military, who spent their time bombing mountain areas in Iraqi Kurdistan, shelling Christian villages near Tell Tamer, transporting Turkmen mercenaries to Azerbaijan to attack Artsakh, sending naval ships out to threaten Greece, propping up their GNA puppet state in Tripoli, and systematically stealing the olive oil industry in occupied Afrin.

Erdogan’s Turkey also spent the last half of Trump’s Presidency unsuccessfully sending an assassin to Austria to murder the Kurdish woman politician Berivan Aslan, meddling for influence in Lebanon, denouncing Bahrain, colonizing Somalia, smuggling arms to Boko Haram in Nigeria, shielding Al-Qaeda 2.0 in Idlib, hosting Hamas leaders while claiming ownership of Jerusalem, and ethnically cleansing 300,000 Kurds in Rojava (northern Syria). And now, with Turkish soldiers stretching from the Balkans to Qatar, and with Erdogan’s regime willing to interfere from Mali to Kashmir, many nations in the Middle East have realized they may be next.

The three blocs vying for power

As a result, three primary coalition blocs of nations have formed, and a group of five nations I call the “wild cards”. Although the blocs have no official name, for clarity of discussion I would describe them as the Franco Alliance, Neo-Ottoman Axis, and Tehran Faction.

The FRANCO ALLIANCE is led primarily by France, Egypt, Greece, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia; but also contains a range of mutually interested non-declared allies, including Rojava’s Administration and their Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), the Republic of Cyprus, Armenia, Jordan, Bahrain, and India.

The NEO-OTTOMAN AXIS is led by Turkey with funding from Qatar, but also includes Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord in Libya (GNA), the Afghan Taliban, Kuwait, Somalia, Bangladesh, and a wide array of armed militant organizations. These range from Wahhabist takfiri groups such as ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS); Sunni Islamist groups such as the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (TFSA), Ahrar al-Sharqiya, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Hamas; and ethnic-based militias such as the Turkmen Sultan Murad and Hamza Brigades, the Uyghur Turkistan Islamic Party, the Chechen Ajnad al-Kavkaz, and the Uzbek Imam Bukhari Battalion. In addition, Turkey utilizes the neo-fascist Turkish Grey Wolves as an intimidation mob throughout Western Europe, especially Germany.

The TEHRAN FACTION is led by Iran and their Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), but also includes the Syrian Arab Army of Bashar al-Assad, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi movement, the Iraqi Shia militias under the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the Afghan pro-Assad Shia militia Liwa Fatemiyoun, and the Pakistani pro-Assad Shia militia Liwa Zainabiyoun.

As for the “wild cards”, they would consist of the United States, the United Kingdom, the German-led European Union (EU), Israel, and Russia. What complicates the issue is that these wild cards often sell arms to nations within at least two of the different blocs (sometimes all three) and move between the various blocs when beneficial to them, and to weaken the one they see as the largest threat.

For instance, while the US would seemingly have more in common culturally with the Franco Alliance, they also look to the Neo-Ottoman Axis as both a proxy force against the Tehran Faction and NATO bulwark against the Tehran Faction’s main wild card of Russia. Similarly, the UK largely aligns with the Franco Alliance politically, but are careful not to alienate the Neo-Ottoman Axis and harm themselves financially (see the UK’s December 2020 free trade agreement with Turkey and recent weapons sales receipts).

Likewise, rather than being with fellow EU member France and the Franco Alliance, the German-led EU is essential to the Neo-Ottoman Axis, as Germany is the chief economic sponsor of the Turkish state, and as a result they often overlook human right’s violations from Turkey. They are joined by fellow EU members Spain, Italy, Hungary, and Malta, who recently blocked sanctions against Turkey, with Spain doing so because they hold so much Turkish state debt in their banks (81 billion USD), that they fear any accountability on Ankara would sink them financially. When you add in that Erdogan is also holding back millions of refugees as de-facto ‘hostages’ in order to extort ‘ransom’ from the EU, it is easier to see why they are more beholden to Turkey’s demands.

For their part, the wild card Israel largely follows the US line, but feels existentially threatened by the Tehran Faction, so they are willing to work with both the Franco Alliance and Neo-Ottoman Axis to weaken it whenever possible. This results in awkward realpolitik where Israel will find itself on the same side as virulently anti-Semitic ‘jihadis’ in Syria, in the pursuit of weakening Assad and thus the Tehran Faction. This further helps explain why Israel sold ‘suicide’ drones to Azerbaijan that were used in their assault on Artsakh (to preserve that strategic relationship in case it is needed in a future war with Iran). As a reflexive spillover effect, formerly hostile Arab states in the Franco Alliance began to recognize Israel in 2020, as direct pushback against Turkey’s growing regional expansionism.

Conversely, although Russia is the primary sponsor of the Tehran Faction, they are not overtly hostile to the Franco Alliance. Russia will also pursue nations within the Neo-Ottoman Axis like Turkey and Azerbaijan, while simultaneously bombing Turkish-backed Islamist forces to solidify Assad in Syria. Equally, Russia will call blocs together (such as Turkey and Iran) for meetings like the ‘Astana Process’, where the future of Syria is discussed without the input of any actual Syrians. Yet, it is Putin’s flexibility and masterful maneuvering between all three blocs at different times that often makes Russia the real ‘kingmaker’ in the region, a role that Trump relinquished to Moscow throughout his term as President.

How President Biden could respond

So, any prediction of what President Biden will mean for the Middle East must begin with this first question, of whether he will or can re-assert the US position as the primary power broker in the region? If he does, then the results will largely be dependent on where he stands regarding these three blocs of nations, with Turkey as the pivotal fulcrum that affects everything.

For instance, will President Biden stop Turkey from carrying out their current expansionist policies, which include building military bases throughout Iraqi Kurdistan to attack the PKK, expanding their 47-year occupation of northern Cyprus into Varosha, threatening the island of Kastellorizo, violating Greek and Cypriot waters with seismic exploration ships, and committing mass war crimes against Kurds in occupied Afrin? The answer to all of these is likely, no.

Moreover, will President Biden hold Turkey accountable for helping Azerbaijan use killer drones upon Artsakh’s villages and demand a new fairer peace agreement with Armenia? Or will President Biden close the US Incirlik Air Base in Turkey and relocate those facilities to Crete or Cyprus? The answer is probably not, though he will face some pressure to do so. The most likely reason why he will not, is because Turkey’s cynical strategic value as ‘potential cannon fodder’ in a NATO war against Russia, has traditionally given them a free pass for unlimited authoritarianism at home, and a lot of leeway for illegal military actions abroad.

As for how Biden will likely rein in Erdogan—who he has called an “autocrat”—those issues consist of disallowing future Turkish invasions of Rojava (since he denounced Trump for abandoning the Kurds in 2019), allowing US court cases to continue against Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank and Reza Zarrab (which Trump was trying to prevent as a favor to Erdogan), placing additional sanctions on Ankara for their purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense systems, and keeping Turkey’s Air Force expelled from the F-35 program as a result of those S-400s.

Presciently, Biden’s ‘leash’ on Erdogan could be tested very soon, as Turkey wants to conduct their ‘annual’ attack on the Kurds to distract from their collapsing Turkish lira currency. This could involve Turkey invading both Shengal in Iraqi Kurdistan and Rojava around the Kurdish city of Derik. In the former, Erdogan’s goal would be to finish the genocide against the Yazidis that his ISIS proxy failed to complete in 2014 (when the PKK saved the Yazidis on Mt. Sinjar). While in the latter, Erdogan’s goal would be to ethnically cleanse another Kurdish city and push back US forces, so he can seize the nearby oil wells they are guarding.

Fortunately for the Kurds, Biden’s choices of Antony Blinken as Secretary of State (who recently dismissed Turkey as a “so-called strategic partner” who was “not acting as an ally should”) and Brett McGurk as the US National Security Council’s coordinator for the Middle East (who has rightfully accused Turkey of aiding in the growth of ISIS and harboring ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi), points to a new US assertiveness towards Erdogan that was absent over the last four years.

Additionally, a Biden administration will likely lean more towards France’s interests (and thus the Franco Alliance) than President Trump; while also not overemphasizing weakening Iran’s Tehran Faction at any cost, as Trump’s inner circle did. The implications would be that the US could join France in stopping Turkey from destabilizing Egypt via the Muslim Brotherhood (perhaps by listing them as a Foreign Terrorist Organization), support France’s actions to eliminate Boko Haram in Africa (who Turkey could use as a proxy force), and morally stand with French President Emmanuel Macron against Erdogan’s attempts to weaponize the issue of Charlie Hebdo cartoons.

Other ways the US under Biden could support the Franco Alliance would be upholding international maritime law by rejecting Turkey’s absurd “Blue Homeland” doctrine, forcing Turkey to stop shipping Syrian mercenaries with cargo ships of weapons to Libya, and supporting the European Court of Human Rights ruling that the Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas should be released from Turkish prison.

Unfortunately, regardless of what happens, it is almost guaranteed that the swirl of conflict will continue and likely even increase throughout the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. Which is the real tragedy, as the birthplace of civilization with millennia of rich cultural history and contributions to humanity deserves so much better than being a chessboard for geopolitical war games, a profitable testing site for the world’s arms dealers, and a playground for maniacal tyrants who order more wars while safe in their mansions.