High-level visit of Russian delegation to Damascus ... background and expectations

Media outlets reported that a Russian military, political and economic delegation will visit Damascus in the coming days, including prominent personalities such as the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who has not visited Damascus since 2012.

A Russian diplomat described the visit in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper as "pivotal". The newspaper stated that it aims to hold a comprehensive discussion on the files related to the situation in Syria with Bashar Al-Assad.

This visit was preceded by many political changes, as the so-called Constitutional Committee, which Russia put its political weight on for its success, failed, due to the intransigence of the Damascus government, Turkish interventions and the exclusion of representatives of significant forces on the ground, most notably the Syrian Democratic Council.

Russia has also not been able to solve the Idlib knot, which Turkey continues to procrastinate in implementing its understandings with Russia.

The visit also comes following Washington's messages sent to Moscow that it does not oppose its presence in Syria, but that it must solve the problem of the Assad government and the Iranian presence.

Washington's envoy to Syria James Jeffrey said earlier, "The Russian-Syrian relationship is not at its best because of President Bashar al-Assad, and the Russians have assured the Americans that they are not happy with Assad's presence, but they have no alternative to him," noting that "the current American administration takes this into account, and is helping them, in partnership with the international community, to prepare a political transition. "

Jeffrey clarified that America's position on the Syrian crisis is to end this crisis with political solutions in accordance with United Nations and Security Council Resolution 2254, which requires drawing up a new constitution for the country, removing all Iranian forces and affiliated militias and fighting ISIS, in addition to continuing the pressure on the Assad regime economically and diplomatically. .

These circumstances prompted Russia, according to observers, to try to trigger Syria's political stagnation, after it cost a lot as a result of its direct intervention in the Syrian war, which did not lead to political results.

In this context, the Syrian Democratic Council-Popular Will Party memorandum of understanding on the Syrian crisis in the Russian capital, Moscow, which was described as the beginning of a new phase.

Pushing the Syrian regime to participate effectively in the constitutional committee

To try to extrapolate the objectives and expected results of this visit, Hawar News Agency spoke with the expert at the Russian Council for International Relations Kirill Semenov, who said: “I think that the contacts of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the Syrian leadership are due to the need to push the Syrian regime to participate more effectively in the Constitutional Committee; that is, it is necessary to agree on schedule of the new meeting of the drafting group. "

He added, "This issue has already been discussed with Geir Pedersen. Of course, there will be an exchange of views on other issues. As for the situation around Idlib and the east of the Euphrates, decisions are taken on them jointly with the Russian Defense Ministry and after ongoing consultations with Ankara."

According to the Russian expert, "The Russian Foreign Ministry may bring something new to Moscow's approaches to Idlib and the east of the Euphrates to Damascus."

'Special and exceptional value'

In turn, the Secretary of the Popular Will Party and a member of the Syrian Constitutional Committee for the Moscow platform, Muhannad Deliqan, had another evaluation of this visit, saying: “We believe that the visit carries a special and exceptional value in relation to its level, especially since, as is known, this is Mr. Lavrov's second visit to Damascus since the beginning of the crisis in Syria, nearly nine years after his previous visit. "

He added, "In general, our assessment is that the conditions for the actual start of the full implementation of Resolution 2254 have become more than ripe, and the term" full "implementation of the resolution is an expression that Lavrov himself used for the first time a few weeks ago for the first time as well. Therefore, we believe that important results could follow this visit. "

On the relation of this visit to a visit by the delegation of the Syrian regime to Moscow and the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the Popular Will Party, Deliqan said: "I do not have information if there is any direct connection between the memorandum and the visit, but I do not think so, because the memorandum was signed only a few days ago, and visits of this kind are organized for weeks earlier.

Nevertheless, the memorandum, as an important step in implementing 2254, and completing the representation of all forces in a way that guarantees the unity of Syria and its sovereignty, perhaps it will be one of the topics of discussion. "

'Important timing'

Syrian analyst and journalist Malek Al-Hafez, in turn, said: "I think that the visit comes as a continuation of the visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin in January, as a second part of presenting Moscow's cards for the next period after the development of the situation in the Syrian file."

He explained that "the visit has its importance due to its timing before the US presidential elections, and after the pending tensions between Moscow and Ankara outside the Syrian file."

Al-Hafiz believes that "there is no change in the Russian plans regarding the coming period, but the visit is an indication of Russia's continued diplomatic support for Assad, whether through the Constitutional Committee, whose foreign minister, met a short time ago with the international envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, and Moscow's efforts to rehabilitate the regime in the new form of".

"Many files"

Regarding the files that can be discussed during this visit, Al-Hafez said: “The files are numerous due to the Russian influence in the entire Syrian file, and the rest of the parties are satisfied with this power, but it seems that the issue of the eastern Euphrates specifically and the understandings and interactions, it may be the basis for the upcoming discussions, in addition to the file of jihadist groups in Idlib. What could the Russians have reached with the Turks on this issue in parallel with the situation assessment of recent US interventions in targeting terrorist groups in Idlib and how Moscow interprets them along with. Of course, the constitutional committee file and how it should proceed during the coming period, and will this remain? "The path is used to rotate between it and the military track, and it comes after each military escalation in the north, or is a different scenario that the Geneva corridors may witness, even if temporarily, in the coming days."

He added, "It is not possible to overlook the developments of discussions about the US Caesar Act sanctions as well, and whether or not Moscow has reached some rapprochement with Washington. This matter may determine Moscow's foreign policies towards Washington; thus, Damascus must abide by what Moscow will take."

On the memorandum of understanding between the Syrian Democratic Council and the Popular Will Party, Al-Hafez said: “I think that Moscow has planned well for the memorandum of understanding between SDC and the Popular Will Party. It wants to win over SDC, in an effort to show Ankara its positive approach and that it wants to bring about a rapprochement with which the Turks must be satisfied with. Thus, Moscow may have also paved the appropriate ground for the most important rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara, in its view.

He explained that "As long as there is positive from the SDC in the east of the Euphrates and a common Russian-Turkish understanding in Idlib about ending terrorist groups as well as resolving the international road file, there will no longer be any major obstacles to completing the consensus in which it will be a partner block like Ankara and Damascus as well, but that remains a Russian plan without the possibility of predicting the extent of its ability to complete it in light of the intertwining of foreign files and the complexity of the Iranian and Israeli role within the corridors of interests and influence on Syrian soil.

the expected results

The Syrian analyst and journalist Malik Al-Hafez tried to extrapolate the expected results of this visit, saying: “Any significant event from this visit, may in any way mean an announced rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus; this is what Moscow has been relying on in the past period, but the question remains is this supposed rapprochement. All the details of its final form have been drawn up, or will the last frills be completed by drawing an approved scenario for power-sharing during the current stage in northern Syria, and how to agree on that and export it?

He added, "I do not think that the files in the east of the Euphrates and the Constitutional Committee may have any current turning points, but the issue of Caesar’s law sanctions remains the decisive one as well, because the economic situation and the pressures that are being exerted on Damascus and its allies mean in any way that any positive interaction by Damascus with Washington's allies. It may facilitate the task of easing the impact of the sanctions, so Moscow may see the solution again through the Astana trio, as the Turkish guarantor is an ally of Washington in NATO, and the Iranian guarantor is the obstructive factor in the Syrian file, so any rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara limits Tehran further, and it is one of the main tasks for the Russians. "

Malik Al-Hafez said at the end of his speech: “There may not be direct results announced, but the visit will certainly result in a curtailment of Iranian influence as much as Moscow can, whether by offering more assurances to Damascus about its relations with the surrounding, or by informing it of the undeclared developments of Moscow’s moves during the period following the Corona crisis, as well as the support that Moscow will provide to Damascus in order to confront the effects of Caesar's sanctions during the current period and what may result from the developments in dealing with the Syrian file between Moscow and Washington.

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