Idlib ... the expected scenario after Daraa and Quneitra

AKRAM BARAKAT/ NEWS DESK

In the recent years, there have been major developments in the Syrian arena, especially in the southern regions of Syria (Daraa and Quneitra), in addition to the southern area of ​​Aleppo countryside in the two Shiite towns of Fuaa and Kafaria, which were besieged by mercenaries of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhit al-Nusra).

The importance of the battle of the South

The battle of the South of Syria is of great strategic importance to several international parties in the Syrian conflict, which has been going on for seven years, because Daraa where battles have taken place is the southern gate to the capital Damascus, and its closeness to Jordan concerned it of influx of thousands of displaced persons fleeing the war in that region, Israel, and its presence in the Jordanian-Israeli Triangle.

As both Russia and the United States have shown great importance. This is especially evident after the Helsinki Summit, which brought together the Presidents of the USA and Russia. Both sides agreed, according to Putin, "The two armies are working successfully in Syria, looking forward to strengthening cooperation between them." Observers believe that Russia and the US agreed that the border areas with Jordan and Israel would return to the regime's authority to ensure matters related to the parties in the agreement: first, the follow-up of the regime’s implementation of the 1974 agreement on the rules of disengagement with Israel, on the one hand, with Amman on the other hand. Thirdly, the emptying of that area of ​​armed groups and mercenaries, as in Gouta.

Russia has been a key supporter of the Syrian regime since the beginning of the revolutionary movement in Syria and later turned into an armed conflict. For its part, the United States announced since the beginning of the operations that it would not intervene; this means calling the factions in Daraa and then Quneitra to surrender in fact, indicating to a beforehand US –Israeli agreements about the ongoing operations. After Russia's pledge to weaken the influence of Iranians in the region and work to get them out of Syria.

On June 19, the Syrian army, with Russian support, launched an attack on Daraa governorate, from which the "Syrian revolution" was launched on March 15, 2011. The regime and its allies used various types of weapons, resulting in extensive destruction of infrastructure and public facilities and private citizens' property. The regime and Russia gained control of more than two-thirds of the province within 15 days.

The Syrian regime's army has succeeded in regaining the ancient city of Daraa (central Daraa al-Balad) and the important commercial crossing of Naseeb with Jordan, and more than 90% of Daraa governorate. It is rapidly advancing to control Quneitra and was able to enter its first village on 20 July following a similar agreement between the armed forces’ factions and the army of the Syrian regime under the auspices of Russia, as happened in Daraa, which provides for the removal of factions that refuse to start the return of the deployment of the regime forces in the province on the border with the occupied Golan to the area Idlib, thus the so-called Syrian opposition losing its last stronghold in southwestern Syria, all border areas with the neighbor countries, except for the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib border with Turkey and Tanf. In parallel, Russia and Israel continue to communicate on Syria, with the second stressing that they will continue to act against the Iranian military presence there, in exchange for Moscow's attempt to prevent an Iranian-Israeli clash.

According to some observers, negotiations are underway to restore the southeastern part of the border to the top of the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border triangle, while the regime controls the central region (Homs and Palmyra) as well as the coast and major cities in the central (western) strategic region.

Idlib and the expected scenarios

In the same context, an agreement was reached between the regime under the auspices of Russia and Turkey to remove 7,000 families from the two Shiite towns of Kufriya and al-Fuaa to the southern regions of Aleppo and to hand over the two towns to the mercenaries of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, by this agreement, the two towns were emptied from indigenous population.

In view of the Syrian scene in recent times, after the attack of the Syrian regime with Russian support and international silence on the province of Daraa and Qeneitra, and the agreements concluded between the regime and the armed factions in the two provinces under the auspices of Russia to take them to Idlib, which has become the focus of the gathering of extremist factions and mercenaries that receive their support from Turkey, In addition to emptying the towns of Kufriya and Al-Fuaa, and making Idlib a pure stronghold of mercenaries under Turkish control, under the supervision of the mercenaries of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and controlled by Turkey, after agreement with Russia. We can list several possible perspectives in the future.

The most prominent of these destinations is that the fate of Idlib may be similar to the fate of al-Ghouta and Daraa, that is, the regime control and displacement, and some see that this destination is slightly excluded as a result of the Russian-Turkish understandings to prevent the abortions of Astana negotiations; others believe that the purpose of this is the establishment of a Sunni area under Turkish auspices in each of Jarablus, Idlib and Azaz, i.e. in the heart of Aleppo, which Turkey is demanding now. In particular the city of Idlib, where the mercenaries of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are present. This is an obstacle to any possible settlement of the region, which is a terrorist organization according to the international classification. Therefore, Turkey is trying in various ways to end the presence of mercenaries of the Commission in Idlib, by solving them or merging their elements with other factions not listed in the terrorist lists.

The leaders’ assassinations that have swept Idlib for months ‘ in various factions including mercenaries of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may be proof of this.

Some believe that the expulsion of the people of the towns of Kufriya and al-Fuaa is the beginning of a Syrian-Russian military campaign against the Idlib areas and turning that area into a bloodbath. Especially if Turkey seeks to move to Aleppo, which seems to be underway behind the scenes though trying to manifest the opposite.

The areas of Jarablus, Idlib, Bab, Afrin and Azaz are expected to witness major developments in the coming days. Either the entire mercenary groups will be liquidated there, or they will be a threat exploited by Turkey threatening the security and stability of the region.

J.O

ANHA