Political analyst: Hezbollah needs a military achievement to restore its prestige

Has Iran abandoned Hezbollah? 

Iran has not yet responded to the killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, despite its repeated positions affirming that "the response is inevitable."

As for its stance on the Support Front and Hezbollah's operations, it is formally supportive of the party, but in reality, it believes that the time is not right for a large-scale attack on Israel, perhaps because it is currently focused on how to achieve its interests and assert its presence in the region.

A special diplomatic source spoke to ANHA's agency about Hezbollah's request to Iran to attack Israel following the recent strikes on Lebanon, in an attempt to restore its prestige. However, the latter has no desire to join the fight, according to the same source. This was evident in the recent stance of Iranian President Masoud Bezhakian, who stated that Hezbollah alone cannot stand against a well-armed state that has access to weapon systems far superior to anything else and is supported by Western, European, and American countries.

The source added that it seems Iran has abandoned Hezbollah in its recent positions, and is now looking for ways to achieve its interests in the region, particularly regarding the nuclear issue.

In another context, sources are questioning how America, through its President Joe Biden, can consider that a diplomatic solution between Israel and Hezbollah is still possible after the serious escalation, while at the same time it supports Israel morally and logistically and sends weapons and missiles to it, under the pretext that Israel has the right to defend itself until it achieves its objectives.

Israel's target bank is expanding, and the fear of a "ground invasion" remains.

Through its recent escalation, Israel demonstrates that its only priority is to eliminate Hezbollah and regain control over the northern residents, as if the Gaza front has shifted to Lebanon. Despite all the international efforts to halt the escalation and pursue a diplomatic solution represented by the implementation of UN Resolution 1,701, Israel continues its war without limits or constraints. Hezbollah, despite the attacks targeting its members, leaders, and facilities, continues to link the two fronts on the principle that "the support front will not cease until the war on Gaza stops."

The journalist and political analyst Tony Boulos spoke to ANHA's agency, stating that Israel, through its intense airstrikes, targeted the front defensive and offensive lines of Hezbollah, as well as infrastructure and missile storage facilities, even going so far as to target homes that are said to contain weapon caches that were hit.

Boulos that the war was no longer limited, but rather widespread, to the extent that Israel referred to it by names such as "Northern Arrows" and "The Third Lebanon War."

He added that all the elements of war have been utilized, leaving the possibility of a ground invasion of the southern borders. Hezbollah has shut down all avenues for dialogue and international mediation by insisting on linking the two fronts, despite the serious Israeli escalation.

He said: "Hezbollah made a strategic mistake because it provided the pretext that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to launch this wide-ranging attack on Lebanon."

Hezbollah needs a military achievement.

Israel considers itself capable, through its airstrikes, of targeting all of Hezbollah's capabilities and weakening its power, to the extent that the Israeli army claims it has "set Hezbollah back 20 years." Boulos that Hezbollah's capabilities on the ground require understanding its upcoming military operations against Israel.

He added, "Despite the party targeting several Israeli sites, it needs a military achievement at this moment to restore its previous prestige and narrative."

Boulos that there was an imbalance of power, especially with Israel demonstrating its immense technological capabilities and intelligence superiority, which are key factors in achieving military progress in this battle.

In the coming days, according to Boulos: "It is expected either to expand Israeli military operations to include a ground invasion, or for international intervention to de-escalate the situation." 

Boulos pointed out that Lebanon, despite the serious developments on the ground, is witnessing a diplomatic movement represented by the visit of the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian in an attempt to revive the French initiative concerning the implementation of Resolution 1,701 through three phases:

The first phase involves de-escalation from both sides of the border, that is, from Israel and Hezbollah, followed by the entry of the Lebanese army into southern Lebanon. Then, France will request an international conference to support the Lebanese army logistically and morally, making it the entity that implements Resolution 1,701 and takes control of the situation along the southern border.

T/ Satt.

ANHA