New escalation in Kashmir: Are India, Pakistan on brink of war?

In the midst of a deeply rooted historical dispute dating back more than seventy years, the Kashmir region is currently witnessing a fresh military escalation between India and Pakistan, raising alarms over the potential for imminent conflict between the two nuclear-armed powers in South Asia. The ongoing exchanges of fire and cross-border skirmishes have reignited international concern, especially as the global community remains largely silent, amid growing fears of a slide toward a full-scale war that could destabilize the entire region.

How Has the Crisis Reignited?

India has announced missile strikes targeting locations within Pakistan, including areas under Islamabad’s control in Kashmir, claiming they were directed at "terrorist infrastructure" following an attack that claimed the lives of 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir. New Delhi accuses Pakistan-backed militant groups of orchestrating the assault — allegations that Islamabad categorically denies

Roots of the Conflict: An Unresolved Dispute Since 1947

The conflict between India and Pakistan began almost immediately after both nations gained independence from British colonial rule on August 14 and 15, 1947, respectively. As part of the British withdrawal, the subcontinent was partitioned into two states along religious lines: Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. Over 560 princely states were expected to accede to either dominion based on geographic and demographic considerations. However, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with its Muslim-majority population, presented a unique case as its ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh — a Hindu — opted for delay and refrained from joining either side.

In October 1947, violence and unrest erupted within Kashmir, and tribal militias from Pakistan invaded the territory. This prompted the Maharaja to seek military assistance from India, which was granted on the condition that he sign the Instrument of Accession, formally aligning Kashmir with India. This act triggered the first Indo-Pakistani War (1947–1948), which ended through UN mediation, resulting in a division of the region: the larger portion remained under Indian administration, while Pakistan assumed control of about one-third of the territory (Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan).

Renewed Conflict and Subsequent Wars

The initial ceasefire did not resolve the underlying dispute but rather laid the groundwork for further hostilities. In 1965, the second war broke out after Pakistan supported infiltrations by armed militants into Kashmir, prompting India to respond with full-scale military engagement.

Continued Escalation: A Fragile Ceasefire Undone

In 1971, India and Pakistan entered their third war — though not directly over Kashmir. This time, the conflict was sparked by India’s support for the secession of East Pakistan, which subsequently emerged as the independent state of Bangladesh. While Kashmir was not the immediate cause of the war, the episode further strained relations between the two countries.

From the late 1980s onward, Indian-administered Kashmir witnessed a significant upsurge in separatist movements, both political and armed, with factions calling either for independence or accession to Pakistan. This marked a major shift in the nature of the conflict — from conventional warfare between states to an internal insurgency.

India has consistently accused Pakistan of backing these militant groups, particularly outfits such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, both of which Islamabad denies supporting.

In 1998, both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear weapons tests, officially becoming nuclear powers. This dramatically elevated the stakes of the Kashmir conflict, rendering any future military escalation fraught with catastrophic risk, including the potential use of weapons of mass destruction.

In 1999, the Kargil War erupted after Pakistani troops and militants infiltrated strategic positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control. The conflict concluded following intense U.S. and international pressure on Pakistan to withdraw.

In November 2008, the Indian city of Mumbai was rocked by a series of deadly terrorist attacks that killed 166 people. India accused the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba of orchestrating the assaults, leading to a freezing of diplomatic ties between the two nations.

In February 2019, a suicide bombing targeted an Indian paramilitary convoy in Pulwama, killing 40 soldiers. India responded with airstrikes on Balakot, deep within Pakistani territory — the first such strike since 1971. This was followed by direct aerial confrontations in which both sides reportedly downed each other's aircraft.

Mounting Tensions After a Four-Year Truce

In 2021, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire along the Line of Control, effectively de-escalating the situation for nearly four years. However, tensions have once again flared following a recent cross-border attack that India attributes to militant infiltrators.

In response, India launched a new series of airstrikes — its first since the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode.

Heavy Casualties and Regional Fears of Escalation

According to official reports, 31 people have been killed and 57 injured in Pakistan and the part of Kashmir under its control. Meanwhile, the Indian military has reported 12 civilian deaths and 57 injuries resulting from overnight shelling by Pakistani forces on the Indian side of the LoC. 

These clashes — now occurring with near-daily frequency — have come to be referred to in the media as the "May Massacre," underscoring the grim regularity of cross-border bombardments across the disputed frontier.

Air Traffic Paralysis and Heightened Security Measures

In a stark indicator of the gravity of the situation, Indian authorities have ordered the closure of 21 airports across the northern and northwestern regions of the country until Saturday. According to a senior official in Amritsar Police, Serevinial, who spoke to the Indian news agency ANI, “All airports are closed; entry and exit are restricted to military personnel and authorized officials only,” adding that “all scheduled flights have been impacted.”

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ANHA