New balances in rules of engagement; possibility of repeated war between Israel- Iran

The Iran-Israel war, known as the "Twelve-Day War," erupted at dawn on June 13, 2025, when Israel, as part of what it called "Operation Rising Lion," launched intensive airstrikes on dozens of Iranian targets, including key nuclear sites, military facilities, and residential neighborhoods housing military leaders and nuclear scientists.

On the evening of the same day, Iran responded by launching "Operation True Promise 3," using ballistic missiles and drones that targeted military, intelligence, and residential sites inside Israel.

This sudden escalation has raised questions about the actual reasons that drove Israel and the United States to wage this war, its consequences for both sides and the region, the factors that led to its cessation, and the extent to which the cessation of hostilities will continue.

Hani Suleiman, a researcher on Iranian affairs, believes that several reasons lie behind the outbreak of war between Tel Aviv and Tehran. The first is to diminish, if not completely destroy, Iran's nuclear capabilities by targeting nuclear facilities to achieve comprehensive or partial damage, prolonging Iran's access to a nuclear bomb

The second reason is to limit the capabilities associated with its ballistic missile and drone programs.

Suleiman believes that the third reason is to strike at Iran's conventional military capabilities by targeting military airports, missile depots, and sensitive defense facilities with the aim of weakening the Iranian regime.

The final goal is to diminish the regime itself by striking influential leadership figures close to the Supreme Leader, almost "breaking bones," as an alternative to overthrowing the regime, with the aim of confusing it and tightening the noose around its inner circle.

Regarding the effects of the war, Suleiman notes that it significantly weakened the Iranian regime and destroyed a significant portion of its military capabilities, but it also exhausted Israel.

He adds: "While the Israeli strikes in Iran had a heavy cost, we should not underestimate the impact of Iranian strikes on Israel, as they established new rules of engagement that had not existed before. This may indicate that we may face opportunities to repeat this issue in the future, with greater repercussions."

As for the reasons for stopping the war, Suleiman believes that the decisive factor was the convergence of the parties' will to be satisfied with what was achieved, as each side declared that it had achieved its objectives.

He adds that continuing the confrontations would have raised the cost to an unbearable level for both sides.

He says, "The Iranian side will not be able to continue a comprehensive, open confrontation with the American side. The United States intervened to strike the nuclear facilities and achieved its goal." Israel cannot keep its citizens under missile attacks and in shelters for much longer."

He continues, "There was an equation that all parties might emerge victorious, according to their narratives, and might achieve some degree of face-saving for all parties, especially the Iranian side."

The analysis, and that provided by Iranian affairs researcher Hani Suleiman, indicates that the future may witness continued instability, with new rules of engagement emerging as a result of this conflict. Both Israel and Iran have exploited the war to achieve their goals, and they are likely to seek to repeat the confrontation in the future under more effective terms, especially with Iran's diminishing capacity for comprehensive confrontation and the limited cost of war for all parties appearing.

The current balance of power may also make the region more vulnerable to higher levels of escalation, as challenges persist in achieving lasting stability.

T/S

ANHA