Expert in Turkish affairs: Erdogan's war against kurds is key factor in deterioration of Turkish economy

Reportaj Summay

 Expert in Turkish affairs: Erdogan's war against kurds is key factor in deterioration of Turkish economy
15 December 2021   03:35

 The expert in Turkish affairs, Dr. Muhammad Noureddin, explained that the wars waged by Turkey and the Erdogan regime against the Kurds, Syria, Iraq, the Caucasus, Libya, and the eastern Mediterranean are one of the most important factors for draining the Turkish national sources.

 The Turkish economy is witnessing a gradual deterioration, as a result of the policies pursued by Erdogan’s regime, and the value of the Turkish lira has reached its lowest level against the US dollar. The expert on Turkish affairs, Dr. Muhammad Noureddin confirms that the deterioration of the Turkish economy weakens Erdogan’s regime politically and economically, and said: “Especially that Erdogan and his party built their feasibility on a strong economy and a zero-problem policy."

 In an interview with our agency, Muhammad Nureddin explained that pressures, corruption, zero relations with countries, and foreign wars will as a matter of course affect Erdogan's standing in public opinion.  Opinion polls confirm that the popularity of Erdogan's party has declined by a very large percentage compared to the rest of the parties.

 Noureddine stressed that Erdogan could not offer anything to the Kurds, firstly because he is convinced of this and his Turkish nationalism prevents it, and secondly, he will lose the votes of his partner in the Nationalist Movement Party.

 The following is the text of the interview:

 Despite the agreements recently concluded by Turkey with the UAE and Qatar, the Turkish lira continues to deteriorate.  What are the real reasons for this?

 It was expected that the visit of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, to Turkey, would contribute to the brakes on the decline in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the dollar, and the collapse in the Turkish economy in general, but of course this visit may give some hope and confidence in the Erdogan regime;  But the $10 billion that was reported are investments and not direct cash injections into the Turkish treasury, and therefore any results on these investments require months and even years, and because this is how Erdogan visited Qatar in the hope that it would also help him in dealing with the deteriorating situation of the Turkish economy.

 Qatar is Turkey's first ally and savior in crises;  Qatar will not allow Turkey to fall like this, but there are limits to the process of pumping Qatari cash and money into the Turkish economy, yet we have seen a collapse in the Turkish lira.

 The first is the corruption that is eating away at the system, especially the family close circles to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and there is talk that 128 billion dollars have disappeared, all as a result of brokerage operations and corruption that affected the regime, and the second reason that negatively affected the Turkish economy and global economies. It is the Corona pandemic, and the third reason is the external pressure, especially the American one on Erdogan for various reasons, but all of them aim to weaken Erdogan first and then try to bring him down in the upcoming presidential elections in June 2013.

 Erdogan always links the collapse of the economy to conspiracies.  But what about his hostility to the Kurdish people and spending billions of dollars in the war against the Kurds inside Turkey and in Syria and Iraq?

 The wars that Turkey and the regime of Recep Tayyip Erdogan are waging against the Kurds, Syria, Iraq, the Caucasus, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean and in many parts of the world are one of the most important factors of draining the Turkish national sources of national income, and of course this depletion cannot be stopped in light of  The continuation of the Turkish war against the Kurds at home and abroad and against other countries, and this is normal in this context;  There are tens of thousands of Turkish soldiers under arms inside Turkey against the Kurds, and abroad in northern Iraq (Kurdistan region), northern and eastern Syria, northern Cyprus, Libya and in various places, and thus this is one of the difficulties that negatively affect the Turkish economy, nor  It is related from this angle to the conspiracies that Erdogan is talking about.

 Everyone was saying that Erdogan's regime would fall if one dollar reached the equivalent of 10 Turkish liras, but we see that the dollar has exceeded 14 liras, and Erdogan's regime is still the same.  How does this affect Erdogan and his party?

 Talking about the fall of the Recep Tayyip Erdogan regime if the exchange rate of one dollar reaches the equivalent of 10 liras is exaggerated.  The Turkish economy, even if the exchange rate reaches 15 or 16 Turkish liras, in the end it is a large economy and the volume of foreign trade is large, exceeding 450 billion dollars, and the national product is not less than 700 to 750 billion dollars. It can absorb the pressures on the Turkish economy, but this matter  Of course, it negatively affects Erdogan, weakening him in politics and in the economy, especially since Erdogan and his party built their feasibility on the strength of the economy and a zero-problem policy.  But in light of pressures and corruption, zero relations with countries, and in light of foreign wars, this will inevitably affect Erdogan's standing in public opinion, and opinion polls confirm that Erdogan's party's popularity has declined by a very large percentage compared to other parties.

 In light of the deteriorating economic situation, is it possible for Turkey to go to early elections, and how will the economy affect its results?

 In light of opinion polls indicating the decline in the strength of the Justice and Development Party from 40% to 30% and the decline in the strength of its ally the Nationalist Movement Party from 13% to 8 or 9%, Erdogan is reluctant to go to early presidential elections, because in these negative circumstances the Turkish voter will inevitably not  Recep Tayyip Erdogan is elected president, and there are polls that say 64% do not want Recep Tayyip Erdogan as president, regardless of those who want him to replace him.

 Thus, the economy is an important factor in influencing the results of the elections. Therefore, Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses and opposes going to such elections, which inevitably means his downfall.

 · If Turkey agreed with the Kurds, which means stopping wars, how will this affect the Turkish economy?

 It cannot be built on assumptions.  Turkey's agreement with the Kurds and stopping the war.  Erdogan’s plan, as it is now understood, seeks to weaken the HDP and try to ban or dismantle it or encourage separatist rebellion movements at home, and put pressure on the Kurdish voter not to go to the elections or to vote part of it for the Justice and Development Party, so the hypothesis of Turkey’s agreement with the Kurds  It is illogical and implausible in such circumstances, and the possibility that Erdogan will offer something to the Kurds and meet part of their demands is an unrealistic possibility.

 Erdogan has refused to give the Kurds any demand since he came to power in 2002 until now, and he cannot offer them anything at this stage, not even on the eve of the presidential elections.  The Justice and Development Party is acting on the basis that it is not only an Islamic party but a nationalist party, and its partner is a nationalist party as well.

 Erdogan cannot offer the Kurds anything, firstly because he is convinced of this and his Turkish nationalism prevents that, and secondly, he will lose the votes of his partner in the Nationalist Movement Party.