UN: ISIS, Al-Qaeda remain a threat in Middle East, North Africa

The report issued by the Security Council talked about the situation of ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, stressing that the cease-fire among the warring groups in Libya helped the efforts made to combat terrorism in the country, noting that the success of the efforts aimed at combating terrorism depends on national reconciliation.

The report, which dealt with ISIS mercenaries, al-Qaeda and other "terrorist" entities associated with them, indicated that the leader of ISIS in Libya, Abu Abdullah al-Libi, known as Abu Moaz al-Tikriti or Abdel Qader al-Najdi, was killed during a raid launched by the "Libyan army" in Sabha on September 15^th.

Although the center of ISIS mercenaries in Libya is still in the south, it is reported that cells affiliated to the mercenaries are located in the coastal areas, and there are still small numbers of ISIS mercenaries remaining in Janzour and Maslata.

Some reports also stated that some groups that previously belonged to "Ansar al-Sharia - Derna" group affiliated with Al-Qaeda fled to Ubari and Sabratha.

In turn, the member states of the Security Council expressed their concern about the transfer of mercenaries from northwestern Syria to Libya, and indicated that some of these mercenaries do not belong organizationally to the so-called "Hayet Tahrir al-Sham", but rather belong to the so-called "Free Syrian Army" groups.

It is reported that "Al-Sultan Morad Brigade", in particular, is the source of most of the Syrian mercenaries in Libya, as well as most of those who have joined the fight in the current conflict in the South Caucasus region, and indicated that this group espouses an extremist ideology and has included former mercenaries of ISIS in its ranks to strengthen them.

As for ISIS mercenaries in Egypt, the Security Council report stated that "Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis" group, which declared its allegiance to ISIS in 2014, is still able to withstand in northeastern Sinai despite the intensity of Egyptian military pressure.

The reports indicated that the group primarily uses improvised explosive devices, while Egypt continues to confirm that "Ansar Beit al-Maqdis" remains a local phenomenon that has no operational, organizational or financial relationship with ISIS mercenaries or other groups affiliated with it.

The Arabian Peninsula and "terrorist" organizations

Regarding the status of terrorist groups in the Arabian Peninsula, the Security Council report confirmed that Al-Qaeda suffered setbacks in late 2020, as its leader Khaled Batarfi, also known as "Abu Al-Miqdad Al-Kendi", was arrested during an operation carried out in Al-Ghaydah city in the Yemeni governorate of Al-Mahra last October. The same operation also led to the killing of the second man in the organization's leadership, Saad Atef Al-Awlaki.

According to some reports, the leader of Al-Qaeda organization in Abyan, Al-Khder Al-Walidi, was killed last November, the organization was defeated in Al-Bayda, and the remnants of its mercenaries dispersed from that province towards Shabwa, Ma'rib and Abyan.

In addition to the losses among the leaders, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffers from weakening its ranks due to defections and desertions led by Batarfi's former assistants, Abu Omar Al-Nahdi.

This is the first time that Batarfi's arrest has been officially confirmed, while the United Nations has not provided further details about the process or Batarfi's current location.

The United Nations report stated that "In addition to its losses at the level of leaders, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffers from erosion in its ranks due to defections, especially after the major strikes and defeats it suffered in Al-Bayda governorate in Yemen."

The report pointed out that the global Al-Qaeda network "is facing a new and urgent challenge regarding its leadership and strategic direction, after an exceptional period of exhaustion of its senior leaders" in Afghanistan, Mali, Somalia, Yemen and the Syrian province of Idlib.

Despite these strikes and the relative calm following the arrest of Batarfi, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula managed to launch a major attack in Lawdar in Abyan governorate last December, which resulted in the killing of a number of members of the Security Belt Forces, and the attack confirms the continuation of threat posed by the organization and its offensive ambitions against targets in the infrastructure.

As for ISIS mercenaries, they suffered great losses in July and August last year, including the death of their leader Abu Al-Walid Al-Adani, and a number of its leaders, and in the wake of these losses, ISIS mercenaries - Yemen issued a statement announcing the start of monitoring their ranks and reconfiguration.

ISIS and al-Qaeda's situation in Syria and Iraq

While on the other side, ISIS mercenaries in Iraq and Syria remained able to wage insurgency operations in the border areas between the two countries despite the challenges they face, including the loss of a number of their leaders in 2020.

In its analytical report on ISIS mercenaries, Al-Qaeda and other "terrorist" entities associated with them, the Security Council referred to ISIS ability to hide in secret locations, and to obtain support from local communities.

The report estimated the number of ISIS mercenaries in the two countries at about ten thousand people, most of them in Iraq; however, their ability to launch attacks is less, due to the pressure of Iraqi forces.

The report said that ISIS ability to launch attacks in conflict areas is greater than in safe areas, indicating that there is a tendency within ISIS in conflict areas towards decentralization, and greater delegation of tactical decision-making processes to each cell of independent cells in the field.

The report referred to Hemrin mountain range in the Iraqi provinces of Diyala, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din, as safe border havens for mercenaries, comparable to them in Syria in Deir ez-Zor region and Idlib controlled by the so-called Hayet Tahrir al-Sham loyal to Al-Qaeda.

The report indicated that ISIS mercenaries take advantage of Deir ez-Zor desert to launch attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the forces of the Damascus government.

As for "Hayet Tahrir al-Sham", according to the report, it is still the dominant group in northwestern Syria, with a force of ten thousand mercenaries.

The international report affirmed that Hayet Tahrir al-Sham possesses large resources from monopolizing fuel transactions in the region through a front company called "Watad for Petroleum," bearing in mind that the group's revenues from fuel and energy trade alone generate about $ 1 million per month, according to the UN Security Council report.

According to the report, Hayet Tahrir al-Sham was able to contain the "Guardians of Religion" group, the other branch of Al-Qaeda in the region due to its weakness and loss of most of its leaders in 2020, and the report also indicated the presence of other entities in Idlib consisting of foreign mercenaries who are still subject to the organization.

In addition, the report of the United Nations Security Council confirmed that the Corona epidemic that tied the hands of governments, especially in conflict areas, also had an impact on the ability of ISIS mercenaries to move and launch high-impact attacks, likely to limit their threat during this period to making threats.

However, the report cautioned about translating these threats into wider attacks during 2021, unless counter-terrorism operations continue to exert constant pressure on these groups.

D.H