Analyst: regulating arms, strengthening institutions support Iraq’s path toward stability

ANHA agency interviewed with Iraqi political analyst Abu Mithaq Al-Masari about Iraq’s political and security situation, the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces and armed factions, the possibility of unifying security decision-making, the repercussions of the Iranian-American conflict on Iraq, and the possible scenarios for the coming phase.

Political situation showing progress

Al-Masari described the political and security situation in Iraq as “good” and witnessing “a degree of progress,” pointing to a number of issues that he considers indicators of this trajectory.

He said that among the most prominent of these issues is “ending the presence of foreign forces on Iraqi territory,” considering this “very important,” alongside other tracks related to the political and democratic process.

He also pointed to the issue of completing the ministerial cabinet, explaining that there are “nine ministries” that have not yet been completed, and that efforts are underway within the Coordination Framework and the State Administration Coalition to complete them. He considered these developments, in his view, a reflection of a positive political trajectory in the country.

Will to place weapons under state control

Regarding whether there is a genuine will to place weapons under the control of the state, Al-Masari said that answering this issue must take into account the various Iraqi political forces and components, including the Coordination Framework, Kurdish and Sunni partners, and the armed factions concerned with the issue of weapons.

He said, “If we want to answer in general, yes, there is a genuine will,” citing the formation of a four-member committee within the Coordination Framework that includes Hadi al-Amiri, Nouri al-Maliki, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani and others. He considered the formation of the committee an indication of “the seriousness and importance of the issue.”

He added that this reflects the existence of “a genuine direction and will” to address the issue of weapons.

Popular Mobilization Forces are a government institution

Regarding the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces and armed factions, Al-Masari rejected placing the two sides in the same category, considering the Popular Mobilization Forces to be “a government institution regulated by law and recognized by all state authorities.”

He said that the fate of the Popular Mobilization Forces is “the same as that of the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Electricity,” as it is a government institution operating within the state’s framework and pursuant to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

He stressed that “the fate of the Popular Mobilization Forces is not the same as the fate of the factions, and that it has a special status” as an official institution, adding that there is a desire for “its sustainability and continuity.”

Future of armed factions linked to arms regulation

Regarding the other armed factions, Al-Masari explained that a formula could be found for their continuation, but noted that there is a desire to regulate and manage their weapons.

He said that determining the future of these factions will come after completing the process of regulating and managing weapons, after which politicians can make a decision regarding the future of their existence “as names and entities, or as numbers of fighters, or camps, geographical presence and presence on the ground.”

Armed forces within state frameworks

Regarding the possibility of integrating all armed forces into state institutions, he said: “All armed forces are already integrated into the state’s frameworks.” Accordingly, he believes that part of the issue is not related to a new integration process as much as it is related to regulating the status of armed forces and the mechanisms governing their activities within state institutions.

Iranian-American conflict has repercussions for Iraq

Regarding the impact of the Iranian-American conflict on Iraqi decision-making, Al-Masari said that the conflict in the region “affects all countries of the region without exception,” noting that Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are feeling its repercussions alongside the other countries of the region.

He considered that the conflict “has moved beyond its geographical framework,” transforming from a local and regional conflict into “a conflict between international axes,” which, he said, has made the world recognize the seriousness of the situation and pushed it toward seeking diplomatic solutions.

He pointed to the agreement reached between Washington and Tehran through the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar, considering it “a very important agreement” that can be revisited and strengthened as a gateway to a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Al-Masari believes that the coming days may witness “a retreat of the American project,” which had aimed to end the Iranian regime, considering that the ceiling of American demands has fallen and that the focus has shifted more toward the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

He said that the United States “will not open the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will not become suitable for navigation as it was unless the satisfaction and approval of the Iranian side are secured.”

Iraq heading toward stability

Regarding whether Iraq is heading toward a period of stability or a new phase of tension, Al-Masari said he believes the country is heading toward “clear stability.”

He said that Iraq is seeking to “avoid the axes and tensions” prevailing in the region, stressing that Baghdad’s interests do not lie in siding with one axis at the expense of another.

He added that Iraq maintains “a certain degree of neutrality” and stands between the axes at a balanced distance, considering that this approach will ultimately lead to “stability, security and prosperity.”

Two years ahead to deepen the democratic experience

In his assessment of Iraq’s trajectory over the next two years, Al-Masari said he expects the country to move toward “deepening the political experience and the democratic experience,” amid the continued peaceful transfer of power and the holding of elections.

He noted that the Coordination Framework, as “the largest partner in the political process,” is seeking to introduce amendments to the electoral law and introduce a unified card instead of the electoral card, in addition to making amendments to the Independent High Electoral Commission.

On the economic level, he said that Iraq is taking accelerated steps to diversify its sources of income, pointing to projects to construct new pipelines aimed at reducing problems associated with the Strait of Hormuz and diversifying oil export routes.

Al-Masari linked these developments to an improvement in general conditions, saying that “public life and social prosperity are witnessing development.” He also pointed to a decline in the poverty rate and the state’s attention to healthcare, energy, electricity and housing issues.

He highlighted a project to distribute one million plots of land to beneficiaries, considering that these measures “will contribute to pushing” Iraq toward greater stability and development.

According to Al-Masari, Iraq is heading toward a phase of strengthening stability, consolidating state institutions, deepening the democratic experience and diversifying the economy, while continuing to address the issue of weapons and maintain a balanced Iraqi decision-making position amid regional and international conflicts.

ANHA