​​​​​​​Armenia and Azerbaijan: Erdogan shifts tension with Russia from ME to Caucasus

Since last September 27, the battles between the Armenian and Azeri forces have not stopped, and according to many observers ’estimates, it is likely that the battle will develop into a more violent form soon, especially after Azerbaijan’s declaration by its President Ilham Aliyev: “The battle has not stopped until the liberation of the territory. "

Baku derives its intransigence from the absolute Turkish support for it, whether with high-tech weapons alongside Israel, or through the thousands of mercenaries that Turkey forcibly deported from Syria to the boiling borders.

In this context, the Palestinian writer and political analyst Muhammad Abu Mahdi believes: “The policy of the President of the Turkish regime, Erdogan, is based on an expansionist ideology like any tyrant who has passed in power throughout history. He is trying to appear as a leader and a maker of history, even though this era has ended for Turkey with the fall of the Ottoman Caliphate, which expanded through wars and massacres, including those that affected nearly a million and a half Armenian citizens, with what is known as the "Armenian massacres", and nearly twenty European countries classified them as genocide. "

Abu Mahdi said in an interview with Hawar News Agency: "Erdogan's support for Azerbaijan has a historical background and an attempt by him to undermine the Armenian state, which is still demanding Ankara to recognize its responsibility for the Armenian massacres, and this issue has great merit."

He points out that: "Azerbaijan is a region rich in energy resources, and Turkey has a deficit in energy sources, and Erdogan is trying to benefit from these sources in exchange for his support for Azerbaijan and fueling the conflict."

Abu Mahadi estimates: “Ankara seeks to transfer the tension between it and Moscow in the Syrian file, from the Middle East to the Caucasus region, that is, the borders of Russia, as an attempt to amend the Sochi agreement that it concluded with Russia, which curbed Erdogan’s ambitions in northern Syria and its status at its lower borders, as Ankara was maneuvering in narrow margins, similar to the M4 International Highway, which Moscow wants to expedite its opening to start the trade exchange process, in addition to withdrawing Turkish military forces from its south, and confining it to a 35-kilometer-deep belt.

“In addition to the above,” Abu Mahadi says that Erdogan is trying to export his internal crises on the economic and political levels by escalating it on other fronts.

And he continues: "Erdogan is working to exploit conflicts to find a foothold, distract the domestic public opinion from failing to prevent the economic deterioration and the repeated collapse in the exchange rates of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, in addition to the deficit in the public budget, and politically from successive crises. And splits within the ruling Justice and Development Party, and the growing power and role of the Turkish opposition, which could not be squeezed into the corner of the new legislation, nor was it intimidated by arrests, brutal campaigns and security prosecutions, in addition to the domination of social media and subjecting it to regime control.

(A)

ANHA