Political analyst: opportunities, risks intersect for Kurds amid escalating war on Iran

The Middle East is witnessing rapid developments following the exchange of attacks between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

Amid assessments suggesting the potential collapse of the Iranian regime, speculation is increasing about the possibility of Kurdish movements in East Kurdistan against the regime, and the opportunities this may create for the Kurds and other components in Iran to free themselves from oppression and achieve national gains.

Reports have also spoken of contacts made by U.S. President Donald Trump with Kurdish leaders, during which he encouraged them to take action, at a time when no actual ground movement has taken place so far.

In a phone statement to ANHA agency, Kurdish political analyst Masoud Abdulkhaliq said that “the current situation in the Middle East aligns with what Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized regarding the pursuit of changing the face of the region, not its borders meaning the reshaping of the balance of power within it. This requires the Kurds to understand the dimensions of this strategy.”

He added that these directions represent “general principles for the coming shape of the Middle East, and that the current war on Iran ultimately does not serve the Kurds, but it can be utilized.”

Abdulkhaliq explained that Iran did not grant the Kurds their rights, but together with Islamic movements it indirectly contributed to the rise of Kurdish movements by creating a fracture in the Middle East.

He continued: “Before the Iranian Revolution there was a kind of regional consensus against the Kurds. But after the Iranian Revolution and the rise of Islamic movements, this consensus was broken, which benefited the Kurds. Today, however, there are fears that this consensus could return again, especially if the Iranian regime and its allies in Iraq fall, because the alternative forces could be nationalist, Baathist, or radical as happened in Syria.”

He pointed out that opportunities may exist if Kurdish leaderships handle the phase wisely, saying: “If Kurdish leaders act wisely, these circumstances could turn into an opportunity. However, Kurdish participation in this war at the current stage is not in their interest. During the Iran–Iraq war we saw how the Kurds aligned themselves and paid a heavy price, represented by the Anfal campaigns and chemical bombardment. Therefore, waiting is necessary KRGbut not passive waiting; rather preparation for the future.”

Regarding Turkey’s role and its impact on any potential developments, Abdulkhaliq said: “Turkey’s presence as a regional power means it will not easily grant the Kurds an opportunity. I expect the scenarios that occurred in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to be repeated in Iranian Kurdistan as well, and Turkey is monitoring the situation closely. If the Iranian regime collapses and Kurdish parties begin to move, Turkey may push toward Kurdish internal conflict in order to justify its intervention. Therefore, I am not very optimistic.”

He continued: “I also expect that a possible alternative regime in Iran might coordinate with Turkey and its regional axis, such as Syria and Saudi Arabia, to form an alliance against the Kurds, which increases concerns about the future.”

Regarding U.S. contacts with Kurdish leaders, Abdulkhaliq considered this “not a good thing,” explaining that “such statements may portray the Kurds as mercenaries receiving instructions from the United States.”

He noted that “the Kurdistan Region KRG did not need this minor assistance from the Pentagon, and now it appears that Trump is using this issue to influence Kurdish leaders and encourage them to act, as if the Kurds could become a scapegoat. Therefore, the Kurds should not listen to such misguided directions.”

He believed Kurdish leaders should demand clear guarantees before any move, saying: “Kurdish leaders must demand a clear and guaranteed roadmap in exchange for their participation in any move against the Iranian regime. They should also push for correcting U.S. policy in Syrian Kurdistan first, and the response to Trump should be: correct what you did in Rojava, and then we can talk about any agreement.”

Abdulkhaliq emphasized that “opportunities and risks exist simultaneously, and the Kurds need wise leadership capable of avoiding disasters and taking advantage of opportunities.”

He pointed out that the best option might be “negotiation with the Iranian government, similar to what happened in Syria during the period of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, whereby Kurdish areas would be administered peacefully by Kurdish forces while Iranian forces withdraw to other areas.”

He also considered that overthrowing the Iranian regime would not be easy even if the United States and Israel intervene on the ground, expecting that “a scenario similar to the Vietnam experience could be repeated.”

In another context, Abdulkhaliq stressed that neutrality does not serve the Kurds at this stage, saying: “Neutrality does not benefit the Kurds; we cannot be mere spectators. We must be active players. At the same time, we must take into account that Iran is in a defensive position.”

He added that “if there is an international decision to overthrow the Iranian regime, Kurdish leaders must prepare for it, but without haste so that the Kurdish people do not suffer major harm.”

At the conclusion of his remarks, Abdulkhaliq called for strengthening Kurdish unity, especially in the KRG, saying: “The Kurds are still divided and clinging to small issues at a time when major changes are taking place in the Middle East and the world.”

He continued: “We need unity and wisdom, and the formation of a political operations room that brings together Kurdish intellectuals and leaders to make strategic decisions. The Kurdistan National Congress should also play a role in this historic phase to determine the future of the Kurds and their role in the Middle East.”

He concluded by stressing that the current phase is “extremely sensitive and delicate,” which requires joint leadership and coordination among all parts of Kurdistan, along with careful study of regional and international developments before taking any decisive steps.

ANHA