​​​​​​​ Panorama of the week: Biden administration is fine with normalization with Assad, broad boycott of Iraqi elections

 Last week's Arab newspapers reported on the Biden administration's position on Arab normalization with the Damascus government, in addition to the Brotherhood's loss in Tunisia and the widespread boycott of the Iraqi elections as well.

 'Washington will not print with Damascus, and it will not prevent the "normalizaers"'

 The beginning of the Syrian issue, and in this regard;  Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper said: "The statement of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken two days ago is the clearest position of an American official regarding the Syrian file, as it clearly revealed the position of President Joe Biden's administration, whether in what Blinken said or did not say, and perhaps it is the most important. 

 What did he say?  He made clear in the press conference with his Emirati counterparts, Abdullah bin Zayed and Israeli Meir Lapid, according to the text distributed by the US State Department, that Washington’s priorities are: “First, expanding the circle of humanitarian access, and we have already achieved some success, renewing the pivotal corridor in the northwest  Syrian Arab Republic.  Second, the continuation of the campaign with the coalition against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria.

 Third, our continued commitment to demand accountability from the Assad regime and uphold basic international standards, such as the promotion of human rights and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction through targeted sanctions.  Fourth, preserving the cease-fire agreements” in Syria.

 He added that the attached task is "to move forward towards the  broader political solution of the Syrian conflict in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution No. 2254."

 Politically expected, the American position on Arab normalization with Damascus, which he said: “What we did not do and do not intend to do, is to express any support for efforts to normalize relations or rehabilitate Assad, or to lift one punishment on Syria or change our position against reconstruction in Syria,  Until irreversible progress is made towards a political solution, which we believe is necessary and vital.”  These are principles that Washington agrees on with Brussels, London, Paris and Berlin, known as the "three No's", meaning: "No reconstruction, no normalization, and no lifting of sanctions before progress is achieved in the political process."

 The words of the American minister came while the UAE foreign minister was at his side, and after the visit of Jordan's King Abdullah II to Washington and his meeting with Biden.  Undoubtedly, Amman and Abu Dhabi are the most enthusiastic about rapprochement with Damascus.  Therefore, what is new in Blinken's position is that the US position is not intended to be followed by allies in the region.

 That is, Washington, unlike what was the case during the administration of President Donald Trump, will announce its position and principles, but it will not lead a diplomatic and political campaign to convince its allies, nor will it punish those who break it, nor will it work to coordinate positions between them bilaterally or within international institutions, regarding the Syrian file.  As happened in the political normalization steps or the return of Damascus to the World Health Organization and Interpol.

 Hezbollah blows up the situation in Lebanon and shifts the focus to the "forces" instead of blowing up the port

 On the escalation in Lebanon, Al-Arab newspaper said: "The escalation practiced by Hezbollah in Lebanon on Thursday led to a major explosion of the situation politically and militarily. This explosion, in which about seven people were killed and dozens wounded, put the fate of the country on the "stop of the imp" and led to a threat to peace.  Al-Ahly, after the party provoked armed confrontations with residents of Christian neighborhoods in the Lebanese capital, and Lebanese political sources expressed their fear of a dangerous development of events in Lebanon if they were not quickly put to an end.

 The party, in partnership with the Shiite Amal movement, organized a demonstration in front of the Palace of Justice in Beirut.  The Palace of Justice, which houses the Ministry of Justice and the courts, is not far from the Christian neighborhood of Ain al-Rummaneh.  The demonstration was organized to protest against the investigation conducted by Judge Tariq Bitar in the case of the bombing of the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020. Hezbollah fears that the judge will give references to his role in storing the ammonium nitrate that exploded in the port.

 However, the demonstration in which the participants launched the slogan “Shi’a, Shiites” soon deviated from its course and entered Christian neighborhoods under heavy shooting, including R.  with me.  Jie, anti-armor, is in the air.

 Eyewitnesses, who could be contacted, stated that the deviation of the joint demonstration of the party and the Amal movement from its original course, made it difficult to determine who shot the Shiite youths participating in it, especially since there is evidence of the presence of snipers who were stationed on the rooftops of the buildings in the Christian neighborhood that erupted  Including the civil war on the thirteenth of April 1975. Opinions differed regarding who these snipers were.  Some said that they belong to the “Lebanese Forces”, while others believed that they were residents of the neighborhood, and a third group went on to say that they were infiltrated elements sent to Ain al-Rummaneh to create a Christian-Shiite sedition.

 Hezbollah circles quickly accused members of the Lebanese forces of shooting at the demonstrators, who resorted to provoking the residents of the Christian neighborhood.

 Lebanese political sources said that the party will seek to invoke its deaths to focus on the Lebanese forces led by Samir Geagea, and to divert attention from the investigation into the Beirut port bombing and the fate of Judge Al-Bitar responsible for this investigation.

 Lebanese politicians considered the situation in Lebanon extremely dangerous, and that the fate of Najib Mikati's government was in jeopardy, especially that Hezbollah would exert pressure in the direction of dismissing Judge Bitar on the one hand, and investigating the killing of Shiite demonstrators on the other.

 These politicians believed that the party would spare no effort to divert the investigation into the bombing of the port, in which more than two hundred people were killed, and in turn focus on the role of members of the Lebanese forces in the killing of demonstrators whom it called the oppressed.

 Tunisia: The Boden government writes the end of the “Brotherhood”

 Regarding the Tunisian issue, Al-Bayan newspaper touched on the formation of the Tunisian government, and said: “The announcement of the formation of the government in Tunisia was welcomed inside and outside the country, while the Tunisians see this as a valuable opportunity to overcome the failure of the Brotherhood’s rule, and cut the way for their attempts to penetrate into the joints of the state and change the societal model.  The swearing-in of Najla Boden's government before President Kais Saied has hammered a nail in the coffin of the Brotherhood, not only in Tunisia, but throughout the region, according to observers.

 Observers point out that the new ministerial team is completely devoid of the hallmarks of the Brotherhood's Ennahda movement, but rather returns to the positions of the sovereign decision a number of personalities that Ennahda expelled from the government of Hisham al-Mashishi.

 Tunisian circles believe that the Bouden government, which will implement the policies of President Said, according to the temporary organization of powers stipulated in the presidential order issued on September 22, will be one of its main tasks to cleanse the joints of the state from attempts to empower the Brotherhood and networks of corruption, which was expressed by President Saeed by confirming that  All files will be opened without exception.

 Al-Sadr's victory and a severe defeat for Iran's allies in Iraq

 Regarding the Iraqi elections, Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper also said: "It appears that the "Sadr bloc" affiliated with the movement's leader Muqtada al-Sadr, achieved a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections, while the "Al-Fatah" alliance, which includes most of the crowd forces allied to Iran, suffered a severe defeat, according to the preliminary results.  For some provinces announced by the Electoral Commission, yesterday.

 According to the results, the Sadrist bloc is advancing in most of the central and southern governorates of the country with a Shiite majority, which turns the power equation upside down, and could pave the way for them to kidnap the prime minister position as the “largest bloc” in parliament, especially with the decline in the fortunes of their rivals in an alliance.  Al-Fateh, whose first results indicate that it left completely empty-handed, except for some seats that may exceed ten, after it had 47 seats in the last parliamentary session, compared to the Sadrists owning 54 seats in the same session.

 The scene of the Sunni-majority provinces (Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Anbar) is still ambiguous, and whether the balance will tilt towards the "Azm" or "Progress" alliance, given that the electoral results are not fully visible, especially in the governorates of Baghdad, Basra and Anbar.

 On the other hand, the Electoral Commission was subjected to severe criticism, despite the observers' praise for its work during the polling day. The criticism came against the background of its breach, first, of the date for announcing the participation rates, and its confusion in announcing the election results.  It was subjected to harsh criticism after it announced a participation rate of 41%, and the former member of the Electoral Commission, Adel Al-Lami, believes that the percentage does not exceed 34%, if the total number of people entitled to vote, which amounts to more than 26 million citizens, and not from the number registered in the electoral process.  The voter register of about 22 million citizens, as did the Electoral Commission.

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