Idlib in front of settlement areas' scenario or decisive military campaign

SULAIMAN AHMAD / NEWS DESK

The Syrian regime controls the largest area of ​​Syrian territory after the displacement and settlement reached by the Syrian government with mercenaries in Damascus, Daraa, Aleppo and Homs, while the Syrian government collected all the mercenaries in Idlib, which became the main incubator for Jabhet al-Nusra's mercenaries in Syria.

About Idleb

Idlib governorate is located in the northern part of Syria and considered as a northern gateway to Turkey and Europe, it covers six thousand and one hundred square kilometers and is divided into five administrative areas: Idlib, Areha, Muarat al-Numan, Jeser al-Shogour and Harlem ", and Idlib is its center.

Idlib is bordered by Iskenderun and Turkey on the northern side. The border extends to 129 km, on the eastern side, Aleppo has a border of 159 km, on the southern side, it shares 158 km to the west side with Latakia governorate.

Idlib on the field

After the glow of mercenaries in Idlib, the city became chaotic as a result of the accumulation of all mercenaries. Every mercenary faction controls parts of the city, towns or villages in Idlib, while Jabhet al-Nusra's gangs controlled the largest land in Idlib.

From time to time, the city witnesses violent clashes and mutual clashes between the gangs, not to mention assassinations of mercenary leaders.

Currently, IS mercenaries carry out successive assassinations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gangs to restore their control of the city, as earlier after they had left it during the battles of Kobanî.

There is no doubt that the multiplicity of mercenary factions and their different ideologies, references and sources of funding are far greater than the possibility of coexisting in a single geographical area like Idlib, which has begun to appear publicly in the ranks of mercenaries in Idlib through fighting and conflict, and continuous liquidation operations between the mercenaries of Jabhet al-Nusra and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

The countryside of Idlib, near Lattakia province and Hama, witnessed bombardment and mutual clashes between the Syrian regime and the mercenaries, in the last 10 days, dozens of both sides were killed and wounded, not to mention the gangs targeting Hamimim airport, where Russian forces are present with mortars.

While the fronts near the towns of "Fuaa and Kafriya" Shiite loyalists of the Iranian regime have witnessed mutual clashes between the parties from time to time, and the result of shelling and clashes between the parties, especially the mercenaries' gathering in Idlib will provide an opportunity for the Syrian regime and Russia to launch a large-scale military campaign.

Turkey's position

There is no doubt that the first to agree and convince the mercenaries of the Syrian and Russian settlement is the Turkish state in the first agreement on the settlement operations in the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo in the winter of 2016, and then the mercenaries came out of the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo and many areas and handed over to the Syrian regime, which is criticized by many that Turkey is which put a dagger in the back of the Syrian revolution.

The current situation Despite the "De-escalation" agreements between the guarantors of the agreement "Turkey, Iran and Russia" Turkey has published 12 monitoring points to tension reduction in Idlib, but Turkey has been unable to control the mercenary gangs and the fighting between mercenaries on the one hand and the Syrian regime on the other hand and the situation In Daraa, which was within the areas of tension reduction did not bring further bad progress to the Syrian regime.

Before the attacks by the Syrian regime, the Russians may present the scenario of settlement, i.e., national reconciliation, as the Syrian regime calls it. In this scenario, Turkey will be in a very embarrassing position in front of its mercenaries in Idlib.

Why Idlib

The Syrian regime is trying to launch attacks on Idlib to secure Aleppo -Damascus international road, as Aleppo-Khansir road is not suitable for large trucks and military equipment for the Syrian regime and its allies in Aleppo.

The Syrian regime, through its attacks on Idlib, also wants to protect the city of Aleppo, Hama and Lattakia, as these areas are occasionally attacked by mercenaries, especially after Idlib became the largest incubator of mercenary and extremist gangs.

Russian forces want to protect Hamimim airport, where there are hundreds of soldiers, not to mention warplanes and helicopters.

The Iranian forces intend to control and lift the siege on the towns of al-Foa’a and Kafriya Shiites, as it did in the towns of Nubal and al-Zahra previously.

H/S

ANHA