Syrian politician: failure of transitional justice could push Syria toward "Somalization"

Transitional justice is seen as an essential component of turning the page on Syria's conflict since transitional justice will bring accountability, ensure justice for victims, seek the truth and reform state institutions. In the context of this framework, the success of the transition process is believed to be the best guarantee of stability for the country in the future and the failure of the process can threaten the unity of the country.

Against this backdrop, Ali Rahmoun, deputy co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), said that the process of transitional justice in Syria is highly complicated yet crucial after the fall of the Ba'ath criminal regime.

He stressed that transitional justice can only succeed if it rests upon several key pillars, foremost among them criminal accountability through prosecuting those responsible for serious international crimes, including genocide and crimes against humanity, while ensuring that no perpetrator enjoys impunity.

He added that revealing the truth, acknowledging the suffering of victims, and officially documenting all violations committed against Syrians are equally essential, as victims and their families have the right to know the truth. In addition, reparations should include both material and moral compensation, restoration of victims' dignity, and guarantees of non-repetition through deep institutional reforms, particularly within the security and judicial sectors to prevent future abuses.

Rahmoun further argued that these principles require strengthening both the legal and institutional framework by having the legislative council enact a comprehensive Transitional Justice Law rather than relying solely on executive decrees. Such legislation, he said, should clearly define the mandate of the National Transitional Justice Commission, guarantee its independence and legal competence, and grant it the authority to address all violations. He also proposed establishing transitional justice units within every government ministry to embed accountability across state institutions.

He emphasized that the commission must be inclusive and representative of all segments of Syrian society, ensuring meaningful participation by civil society organizations and victims throughout both the design and implementation of the transitional justice process.

Rahmoun also called for benefiting from international expertise, particularly through cooperation with the United Nations' International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM), especially in investigations and the prosecution of perpetrators of serious crimes.

At the same time, Rahmoun warned against the dangers of excessive executive interference and the politicization of justice. He argued that prosecuting only one party while ignoring others would undermine the credibility of the entire process. Likewise, delaying the implementation of justice would deepen public frustration and could encourage acts of personal revenge outside the framework of the law.

He stressed that Syria's future largely depends on the success of this difficult and complex process. Rebuilding trust, he said, is like repairing a torn social fabric, as the current lack of trust is not merely an emotional response but the cumulative result of decades of repression, killings, displacement, and societal division.

According to Rahmoun, restoring confidence requires the executive authorities to recognize that trust is earned through concrete actions rather than political statements. Rebuilding trust among citizens also requires creating space for mutual acknowledgment of suffering through a genuine and inclusive national dialogue involving all Syrians.

In this regard, he called first for rebuilding horizontal trust among citizens and between Syria's diverse communities by promoting community-based justice and local reconciliation initiatives instead of waiting for major national trials to conclude.

He proposed supporting local reconciliation committees in neighborhoods and towns with religious and ethnic diversity. These committees would document minor local violations, organize public apology sessions between neighbors, and provide material and moral compensation to those affected within their communities. Such efforts, he argued, could help contain feelings of revenge before they escalate into renewed violence.

Rahmoun also stressed the importance of ending all forms of hate speech, sectarian rhetoric, and incitement against any Syrian community. He further advocated launching joint local economic initiatives that would bring together displaced families and local residents through agricultural and vocational projects, thereby strengthening shared interests and breaking down barriers of fear.

On the level of vertical trust between citizens and the state, Rahmoun called for a comprehensive and exceptional amnesty for political detainees, the restoration of their civil rights, and the release of everyone imprisoned or prosecuted for political reasons or for expressing their opinions. He also urged the reinstatement of public employees who had been arbitrarily dismissed and the dismissal of legal cases against activists based solely on their previous political views, provided they had not been involved in crimes involving bloodshed.

He further described the issue of forcibly disappeared and missing persons as one of Syria's highest national priorities. He called for the establishment of an independent body operating with full transparency and in cooperation with international organizations to determine the fate of the missing, identify them, and provide urgent compensation to their families. He emphasized that this issue affects nearly every Syrian household and that addressing it is indispensable for rebuilding public trust.

Rahmoun also advocated restructuring the police and internal security services by establishing a complete separation between policing and intelligence functions. He recommended introducing a legal framework for community oversight of the police while ensuring safeguards against abuse and arbitrary practices.

He highlighted what he described as the crucial link between horizontal and vertical trust, arguing that the two are inseparable because both depend on meaningful public participation in local decision-making. To this end, he proposed empowering citizens to establish neighborhood councils with planning and oversight powers to monitor the performance of government institutions in their respective areas. Such councils, he said, would enable Syrians of different backgrounds to work together in solving local problems, strengthen mutual trust, and reinforce confidence in state institutions.

Rahmoun concluded that the path toward a safe and stable future begins with acknowledging past mistakes before asking for forgiveness. He suggested that the authorities issue an official declaration recognizing the grave violations committed by the former regime, as well as abuses committed by other parties to the conflict and begin compensating victims even before prosecuting perpetrators. Such a step, he argued, would create the first breach in the wall of fear and gradually restore public confidence. By contrast, denial or continued delay would leave Syrians trapped in a cycle of waiting for the downfall of their opponents rather than working together to build a shared future.

Rahmoun warned that if the transitional authorities fail to achieve transitional justice, the consequences would extend far beyond a missed opportunity. Instead, Syria could be drawn into a prolonged cycle of crises, where the devastation of war evolves from physical destruction into a deep structural crisis that threatens the very existence of the state.

He explained that one of the most immediate consequences of such a failure would be the entrenchment of a culture of revenge and communal retaliation. In the absence of credible trials and meaningful reparations, families and tribes may seek justice on their own, leading to an increase in extrajudicial killings and acts of vengeance. At the same time, organized criminal networks could expand their influence, exploiting the vacuum to gain control over various aspects of public life.

Rahmoun further warned that the failure of transitional justice would accelerate the collapse of Syria's social fabric, prompting the continued emigration of highly skilled professionals, including doctors, engineers, and academics, while cities become increasingly segregated along sectarian lines. He cautioned that an entire generation could grow up without a shared sense of national identity.

He also noted that the absence of transitional justice would seriously hinder reconstruction efforts, as major international donors, including the European Union and the World Bank generally tie financial assistance to the existence of credible accountability mechanisms. Without such guarantees, economic sanctions could persist, foreign investment would remain limited, cities would continue to suffer from destruction, and poverty rates would rise.

Rahmoun outlined three possible scenarios for Syria's future should transitional justice fail.

The first, which he described as "Lebanonization," would see the emergence of a weak central government incapable of exercising authority beyond the capital, while foreign powers, including Russia, Iran, Türkiye, the United States, and Israel continue to divide the country into competing spheres of influence. Under this scenario, political paralysis and recurring security crises would become the norm.

The second scenario, referred to as "Somalization," would involve the collapse of Syria's formal state institutions, including the army and the central bank reducing them to little more than symbolic entities while armed factions assume effective control over territory and governance.

The third scenario would involve the re-emergence of authoritarian rule through the rise of a military actor claiming that security must take precedence over justice. While such a model might impose temporary stability through force and repression, Rahmoun argued that it would remain inherently fragile, rooted in fear rather than legitimacy, and would ultimately lead to renewed cycles of popular unrest while deepening Syria's international isolation.

On the regional and international levels, Rahmoun warned that the failure of transitional justice would likely prolong the flow of refugees toward Turkey and Europe, fueling the rise of far-right political movements and turning migration into a recurring source of political pressure. He also cautioned that continued instability could create fertile ground for the resurgence of extremist organizations, including remnants of ISIS and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, enabling them to exploit widespread frustration and lawlessness for recruitment. In addition, Syria's desert regions could once again become launchpads for activities threatening regional stability.

Concluding his remarks, Ali Rahmoun, deputy co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council, stressed that without meaningful progress on transitional justice, Syria would have no safe path forward. Instead, he warned, the country could become an enduring humanitarian and governance crisis, managed through recurring emergencies and deepening despair, leaving future generations trapped in an open-ended conflict.

He concluded by emphasizing that transitional justice is not a moral luxury but the only viable mechanism capable of defusing internal tensions and laying the foundations for lasting peace. Without a genuine, comprehensive, and inclusive process of transitional justice, he said, Syrians will remain prisoners of their past and unable to build a stable and shared future.

ANHA