Politician: Syria is not party to war against Iran; may benefit from its outcome

Amid the rapidly escalating tensions between Iran and its allies on one side, and the United States and Israel on the other, concerns are growing that the confrontation could spread to new arenas. At the same time, there is increasing discussion of regional and international efforts to reshape the balance of power across the Middle East.

In this context, questions have emerged about the possibility of Syria becoming involved in the conflict, the potential impact on its security and internal stability, its political and social balance, and the possible scenarios for shielding the country from the repercussions of a broader regional confrontation.

Syrian writer and political analyst Ghassan Al-Muflih argues that the removal of Iran from Syria, the curtailment of its influence in Iraq and Yemen, and the campaign against Hezbollah marked the beginning of the current escalation. According to him, Iran was forced to withdraw from Syria rather than leaving by choice.

Al-Muflih believes that the factor which clearly brought the first round of the war to a halt was Iran's missile capability. He argues that Iran placed Israel under an unexpected barrage of missile fire, to the extent that, during the final days of the conflict, Israel's military lost much of its ability to intercept the attacks. In his view, this was the fundamental reason the fighting stopped at that particular moment.

He notes that, in the current phase of the conflict, Israel is no longer directly participating. He believes that Iran will ultimately lose the war against the United States, even if it continues launching attacks on certain sites in the Gulf states, and that the consequences of this defeat will eventually be reflected in future agreements.

He further explains that the United States' military power in this round relies on stealth capabilities, meaning that Iran is not confronting an enemy deployed on the ground or a neighboring state, but rather what he describes as "ghost-like firepower from the sky." He also points out that the United States has introduced new weapons into the conflict.

Regarding Syria, Al-Muflih says that regardless of the outcome, the war will not affect the country's social fabric. He argues that Syria's various communities will remain unaffected because Iran's influence in Syria has been curtailed through an international decision, not merely an American one.

He believes that Syria stands to benefit from the consequences of the conflict, regardless of how its final outcome reshapes the regional landscape.

On another point, Al-Muflih maintains that Ahmad al-Sharaa will not intervene militarily in Lebanon against Hezbollah. He explains that any authority in Syria has numerous ways of influencing developments in Lebanon without direct military involvement, citing the disruption of Hezbollah's land, maritime, and financial supply lines as an example. In his view, such measures alone would be sufficient to alter the balance of power.

Ghassan Al-Muflih is a Syrian writer, journalist, and political analyst born in Daraa Governorate in 1960. He spent approximately 12 years in Syrian prisons because of his political activism and currently resides in Switzerland.

He is widely known for his writings on Syrian affairs, focusing on issues of democracy, the civil state, and political transition. He offers critical analyses of the Ba'ath regime, critiques the performance of the Syrian opposition, and addresses issues related to freedoms, human rights, and the future of the Syrian state, in addition to discussing the Kurdish issue and the regional and international dynamics influencing Syria.

ANHA