Researcher: no winner in war on Iran, truce paves the way for new power balances

Amid rapidly unfolding developments following the announcement of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, political and military assessments of the war’s outcomes vary, raising questions about the balance of power and the future of regional stability in the coming phase.

In a statement to ANHA agency, Syrian writer and Middle East researcher Abdulrahman Rabbou said that the recent war on Iran did not produce a decisive winner, emphasizing that “this war has caused heavy losses for all parties, including the international community, which has suffered economically.”

He explained that the United States and Israel are attempting to present themselves as victorious; however, “this has not truly happened, except for the partial destruction of Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure.” He added that the Iranian regime “has neither collapsed nor changed, and its military capabilities have not been decisively weakened.”

Control over the Strait of Hormuz

Conversely, Rabbou argued that Iran has emerged stronger, as it “thwarted the primary objective of the war, which was regime change,” adding that it has become “the primary and ultimate controller of the Strait of Hormuz.”

In his analysis of the truce’s objectives, he stated that “Tehran forced Washington into this truce,” describing it as a “strategic truce aimed at reaching a comprehensive agreement,” rather than a temporary tactical step.

Repositioning under new power balances

Regarding the next phase, he indicated that the region will witness “a repositioning based on new balances of power,” with the possibility of new arrangements to regulate navigation in the Gulf.

He also expected the truce to continue, as it is “in everyone’s interest,” while suggesting that comprehensive political stability in the Middle East is unlikely. “Iran will continue to support its military proxies, while Israel will keep strengthening its military influence.”

Rabbou concluded by emphasizing that the truce provides an opportunity for de-escalation, but “it will not fully end conflicts,” given the ongoing regional and international competition for influence in the region.

ANHA