Political Analyst: Russia recasts its presence in Syria while retaining Tartus, Hmeimim

While some reports suggest that these developments signal a decline in Russian influence, political researcher and analyst Dr. Mirzad Hajim argues that Moscow’s approach is fundamentally different. He believes Russia is pursuing a carefully planned restructuring of its presence that preserves its strategic interests while minimizing political and military costs.

Hajim noted that Russian academic circles and decision-making centers view current developments with considerable pragmatism. He explained that the issue is neither a withdrawal nor a display of power, but rather “the story of a state that knows exactly where its vital interests lie and how to protect them at the lowest possible cost in a rapidly changing world.”

He added that the model of Russian presence established in 2015 has completely outlived its usefulness and no longer serves anyone. During the peak of the war, Moscow managed more than one hundred military positions across Syria and acted as a “firefighter” protecting multiple fronts, a role that has become an unjustifiable burden under peacetime conditions.

According to Hajim, the new formula being discussed with Damascus is based on the principle of “preserving the core and shedding costly margins.” Russia is focusing on the Hmeimim and Tartus bases as the two pillars of its presence while reducing direct military visibility and converting parts of the facilities into joint logistical, commercial, and humanitarian centers.

He added that this approach serves both sides. “Damascus needs to reinforce the image of full sovereignty before the Syrian public and neighboring states, while Moscow does not wish to appear as a patron power.” Transforming the bases into trade transit hubs and joint training facilities would provide Syria with economic and sovereign benefits while guaranteeing Russia a strategic presence with deeper legitimacy and lower political costs.

On growing American interest in the future of Russian bases in Syria, Hajim argued that concerns within the U.S. Congress are not driven by a commitment to Syrian sovereignty but rather by what he described as “the shock of miscalculations.”

He explained that decision-makers in Washington expected political change in Damascus to lead quickly to Russia’s expulsion from the Eastern Mediterranean and the disappearance of its influence in warm waters. Instead, the reality has shown a continued Russian presence and Moscow’s success in establishing direct communication channels with the new Syrian government.

According to Hajim, U.S. concerns stem from two main reasons. The first is related to breaking maritime isolation. He noted that the continued operation of the Port of Tartus helps Russia circumvent efforts to isolate it at sea by maintaining a secure outlet for Russian ships and cargo bound for global markets.

The second reason concerns the central role played by the Tartus and Hmeimim bases in supporting Russia’s growing activities in North and West Africa, as well as Libya, rather than serving Syria alone.

He pointed out that the two facilities constitute a major logistical hub for Russian supply networks extending across Africa. Therefore, any attempt to close or restrict them would directly threaten Russian interests on the continent, something Moscow would not accept.

Discussing the future of Russian-Syrian relations, Hajim said the relationship is shifting from one between “a military protector and a party indebted to it for its survival” to one between “pragmatic partners,” a transformation he considers healthier and more sustainable for both sides.

He stressed that the Port of Tartus is Russia’s only naval facility on the Mediterranean outside the territory of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, abandoning it is not an option within Russian decision-making circles, as doing so would amount to geopolitical suicide and a voluntary relinquishment of Russia’s status as a global naval power.

He added that Russia’s flexibility in negotiating the form of its bases is a smart maneuver aimed at preserving the essentials—the naval berth and the airfield—while sacrificing military appearances that belong to a bygone era.

Hajim also noted that Moscow does not oppose Damascus opening up to its Arab neighbors or Western countries for reconstruction and investment purposes. On the contrary, Russia sees such engagement as an opportunity to reduce its own economic burdens.

He emphasized that Russia’s role in Syria is no longer based on monopolizing the security file. Instead, it is evolving into a strategic partnership focused on protecting trade and energy routes and ensuring a balance in Syria’s international relations that prevents it from falling under the absolute dominance of any regional or global power.

In conclusion, Hajim said that Russia is not withdrawing from Syria but is merely changing its attire—from heavy military uniforms to the suits of economic and logistical diplomacy. He added that the same bases that played a key role in preventing the collapse and fragmentation of the Syrian state during the war are now being repurposed to secure a lasting and influential Russian presence in the strategic equations of the Eastern Mediterranean during peacetime.

Dr. Mirzad Hajim is a political researcher and analyst, Director of the Center for Public Diplomacy, and an expert at the Center for Scientific Research and Applied Consultations.

ANHA