Political Analyst: restricting weapons to Iraqi State requires comprehensive measures

Iraqi political analyst Ahmed Al-Mayahi told (ANHA) agency that Iraq is currently experiencing a state of political and security stability, despite economic repercussions that have affected salaries and social welfare. He attributed part of the economic difficulties to disruptions in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and instability in Iraqi oil exports.

Speaking about Iraq’s political and security situation, Al-Mayahi explained that the situation in the country is “much better than in neighboring countries,” considering that political and security stability remains in place despite the challenges facing the country.

Regarding the issue of restricting weapons to the hands of the state, Al-Mayahi described it as a “complex and significant” matter, questioning whether restricting weapons refers only to armed forces and factions, or whether it also includes the Peshmerga forces, tribal weapons, the personal protection details of officials, and other armed formations.

He pointed to the large number of armed personnel serving in the protection details of officials, considering that these weapons also fall within the category of weapons existing outside the framework of state institutions. He also spoke of the presence of fighters training under the supervision of Turkish forces, in addition to tribal weapons.

Al-Mayahi stressed that any project aimed at restricting weapons to the hands of the state must include “everyone,” arguing that subjecting one side to the measure while exempting another would amount to targeting a particular component while ignoring other aspects of Iraq’s security reality.

Factions and integration into State institutions

Regarding the future of armed factions and the possibility of integrating them into state institutions, Al-Mayahi said that the integration process is already underway, noting that a number of factions have been incorporated into the Popular Mobilization Forces or the security forces. However, he considered that the process is not necessarily proceeding in line with the aspirations of those responsible for the security portfolio.

He said that the main obstacles to building a unified military and security institution include “political discrimination,” rather than sectarian discrimination linked to the country’s components, in addition to restrictions imposed by the United States on the development of Iraq’s military capabilities, particularly in the field of arming the forces.

He added that Iraq faces restrictions in obtaining certain advanced military equipment and technologies, while airspace control, surveillance, and radar detection remain linked to U.S. and coalition forces, considering this one of the reasons limiting the development of Iraq’s military capabilities.

He also pointed to widespread corruption within institutions, considering it an additional factor hindering the establishment of strong and unified military and security institutions.

The U.S.–Iranian conflict and its impact on Iraq

Regarding the impact of the U.S.–Iranian conflict on Iraqi decision-making, Al-Mayahi said that Iraq is an independent state, but its geographical and political position makes it highly affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran.

He noted that Iraq is among the countries most affected by the repercussions of this conflict, both economically and in terms of security, explaining that Baghdad is constantly seeking to prevent its territory from becoming an arena for regional confrontation.

He said that Iraq “always takes the initiative to ensure that it does not become a zone of fire,” pointing out that escalating tensions in the region have a direct impact on Iraq’s security and economy.

Baghdad and Hewlêr

Regarding the future of relations between Baghdad and Hewlêr, Al-Mayahi criticized what he described as the federal Kurdistan Regional Government’s failure to comply with some central government decisions and constitutional provisions. He considered that developing relations between the two sides requires respect for obligations and commitments and adherence to the Constitution.

He stressed that achieving a balanced relationship between Baghdad and Hewlêr requires both sides to adhere to constitutional and legal frameworks, considering that the continuation of disputes over these issues is hindering the achievement of stable understandings between the two sides.

Stability or Tension?

In his assessment of the coming period, Al-Mayahi predicted that Iraq’s political and security stability would continue, pointing to indications of an improvement in the economic situation, particularly with the continued flow of Iraqi oil.

He expected the current government to remain in place during the next phase, with the possibility of resolving a number of government-related issues and ministries currently being run in an acting capacity. He also expressed his belief that the country may witness developments in the coming period in the urban development, political, and economic fields.

He considered that having a clear economic vision and working to improve and develop the state’s sectors are among the most important requirements of the next phase, contributing to strengthening stability and improving overall conditions in the country.

ANHA