​​​​​​​Possible Damascus-Ankara reconciliation.. What Turkish occupation plan?

 There has been a lot of talk recently about talks between the Damascus government and the Turkish occupation state, after the latter's officials promoted these talks and the possibility of reaching a possible reconciliation between the two parties.

 With the arrival of Bashar al-Assad to the presidency in Syria in 2000, the relationship between the Turkish occupation and Damascus grew, leading to the occurrence of personal relations between Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad. During that period, al-Assad opened the country's doors and markets to Turks and their merchants, at the expense of Syrian industries.  Security and political affairs in 2010 were in the interest of the Turkish state and specifically targeted the Kurds in Syria and were considered as an amendment to the Adana Agreement concluded by the elder Assad with Turkey on October 20, 1998, which also targeted the Kurds.

 Despite that, with the start of the Syrian crisis in 2011, the occupying Turkish state and its president Erdogan (Bashar al-Assad's old friend), was the first to support mercenary groups and called and worked to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's regime, turning friendship into great enmity.

 With the failure of Turkish policies in Syria, especially after the Russian intervention in 2015, the Turkish occupation state entered the Astana Alliance, which includes Russia and Iran, which strongly support the Damascus government, and since that time Turkish goals have been limited to overthrowing the "Assad regime" to attacking northern and eastern Syria.

 Russia has since sought to end the state of conflict between Damascus and the Turkish occupation, but the latter has used the policy of playing on contradictions and evaded that because of the American and Western rejection of this step.

The head of National Security in Damascus, Major General Ali Mamlouk, and the head of Turkish intelligence, Hakan Fidan, held a meeting in early 2020 in the Russian capital, Moscow, the first announced meeting since 2011.

 Talks about negotiations and reconciliation between the two parties increased after the recent meetings in Sochi and Tehran, which brought together the leaders of Astana countries (Russia - Iran - Turkey).

 The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Turkish occupation, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, said on August 11, 2022, "Turkey supports political reconciliation between (the Syrian opposition) and the Assad regime," and indicated that it was conducted in October 2021, when he attended a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in  the Serbian capital Belgrade, a quick conversation with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Damascus government, Faisal Miqdad.

 Prior to that, the President of the Turkish occupation, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stated, upon his return from a meeting in Sochi with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 6, that the intelligence services of Ankara and Damascus were communicating regarding “terrorist organizations.”

 On his return from a visit to Ukraine on August 19, Erdogan made another statement in which he said that Turkey was ready to take contacts with the Damascus government to a higher level;  That is, to a political level.

 Turkish internal reasons

 A researcher in political sociology and an expert in Turkish and Kurdish affairs, Dr. Hoda Rizk, spoke about this, saying: “I think that there were meetings that began at the intelligence level more than 5 months ago, but did not reach a conclusion, but it seems that there are internal Turkish reasons that led to the development of these talks, we do not forget that there are unfavorable internal conditions for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially since the Turkish opposition said that it first wants to restore the relationship with Damascus, specifically with Bashar al-Assad.

 On the motives behind Turkey's going to these negotiations, Huda Rizk said: "The Turkish internal reality is in an economic crisis, and Erdogan won most of the elections because of his economic success, and this time there is no economic success, but rather an economic failure, and there is 79 percent of inflation in Turkey, so there is a danger to Erdogan win this election."

 She explained in this context, "It is true that there is no democracy in Turkey and there is one-man rule, but what is important for the Turkish voter first is the economy and then democracy and freedom. Therefore, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to return to a zero-problems policy, so we saw how he went to accord with all his opponents.  From Saudi Arabia to the UAE, he is trying to restore the relationship with Egypt.

And she continued, "Erdogan knows perfectly well that the Arab countries see that he is interfering in Iraq and Syria, especially in Syria, because he sponsors some of the Islamist forces against which the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia stand, such as the (Tahrir al-Sham), as well as all the Islamic groups sponsored by Erdogan, so he is trying to agree with all Arab countries in order to  be supported economically.

 Russian-Turkish joint interest

 Despite the Russian military success in Syria, Moscow has not achieved political success, so it seeks, through this reconciliation, to break the isolation imposed on the Damascus government and breach the economic sanctions imposed on it.

  Rizk said about this: "There is pressure from Russia on Erdogan to reach an understanding with the regime in Syria. This issue is in Erdogan's electoral interest and it is in Russia's interest that an agreement is reached between Turkey and Syria and that there be a re-production of an agreement similar to the Adana Agreement, but that  the agreement is being expanded, there is also the problem of refugees. The Turkish interior is restless about the presence of 4 million Syrians, most of whom are economic refugees, meaning that they work in Turkey, which led to the uprising of the Turks because they claim to take job opportunities from them, as well as they (the refugees) spend in the Turkish infrastructure,  This is also very important for the Turkish president, but he wants to return some of those people to the areas he prepared to be a buffer zone."

 Big differences .. Erdogan does not want to withdraw and Damascus will not accept

 On the plans of the Turkish occupation, she said: “Erdogan does not want to withdraw from Syria at the present time, but he wants security arrangements with Damascus to be in these areas that he considers safe for refugees who are loyal to Turkey.”

Regarding Damascus' position, Huda Rizk says: "The question is, is it possible for the Syrian state to accept this reality and to have a buffer or safe zone as he calls it? He suggests 30 km, and of course the Syrian state does not accept that there be such a buffer zone. This is impossible,  there are negotiations and we do not know what these negotiations are and where they reached, but we know that the Syrian state did not accept 30 km and will not accept a Turkish presence on Syrian territory.”

 She said, "Turkey is serious, but the proposal does not mean withdrawal, but rather security arrangements. Under these security arrangements, the Turkish army can withdraw, but there are understandings that must be made. These understandings are not only security arrangements, but there are understandings concerning (the Syrian opposition) and of course Russia is considered as  the Syrian state that there are so-called terrorists, such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and some other militants.”

 She added, "The question is, is it possible to achieve reconciliation with the terrorists? This is a question around which there is a question mark. Some terrorist militants who belong to external forces have been initially disposed of, some of them have been disbanded, but Turkey is trying to polish the image of al-Julani and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. The question here is whether the state accepts  Syria and Russia on this issue, this is also a question mark.”

And she added, "There is also an important issue, which is the understanding of the Syrian state with the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Syrian state and Russia consider this to be an internal Syrian issue, and they are sponsoring the dialogue with the SDF, and this is what was mentioned about the meetings and meetings."

 Turkey cultivates influence in Syria

 From the beginning, Turkey worked, in parallel with its military attacks, to consolidate its presence, whether by changing the demographics of the Syrian regions and forming mercenary groups under its orders, or by forming political parties and entities under the name of the opposition to intervene in the Syrian political process and represent Turkish interests in the event that Turkey was forced to withdraw.

 Observers believe that what is happening in the so-called safe areas of displacement of the indigenous population and the settlement of other people loyal to the Turkish occupation, is part of the Turkish strategy based on consolidating influence with the aim of controlling the future of the Syrian state, whether through elections and voting or by creating chaos that serves Turkish interests.

 This is similar to what Turkey did before the annexation of Iskenderun, where a formal referendum was organized to include the Liwaa in the Turkish state, where thousands of Turks who were transported in trucks participated in it, and the original residents of the Liwaa boycotted it.

 On the so-called Syrian opposition, Huda Rizk said: "Recep Tayyip Erdogan considers himself responsible for the opposition and he speaks in its name. He wants some amendments to the Syrian constitution, but it seems that Tehran and Russia do not want to have a derogation from the powers of the president, but it also seems that Russia wants  To satisfy the Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, and that is by giving some powers to the prime minister or the vice president of the republic, so there are talks that take place in succession.

 And she continued, "Will these talks succeed? Of course, the circumstances in which the Turkey is present are not conditions that allow him to maneuver much, but I also do not think that the Turkeu will leave Syria without having security gains for the opposition and what they call a moderate opposition. Therefore, the talks will be difficult and will not be easy. I think that we will not wake up tomorrow and see the talks completed, but it will take time.”

 Huda Rizk concluded her speech, saying: "I think that the issue has been put on the path to a solution, but is it possible a quick solution? No, because there are big problems in Syria, but it seems that just as the issue was resolved in southern Syria between Jordan and the militants, and Russia entered the line of reconciliation, this can be done."  The issue is in the north, but the north is more complicated than the situation in the south."

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