Syria has now entered a phase long forewarned: the peak of regional competition over its fate. On one hand, the Turkish occupying state perceives itself as the decisive force behind the weakening of the Assad regime through its support for armed groups and terrorist organizations. On the other hand, Israel claims that its operations targeting Iran and its affiliates have significantly undermined the regime, thereby enabling the advance of these same armed factions.
Despite differing motivations and objectives, both narratives hold truth. Without Israel’s impactful strikes in Syria and Lebanon, and without the weakening of the Iranian axis, the Turkish-backed gangs groups would likely not have achieved such swift and successive control over Syrian territory.
Contest for Influence on Syrian Soil
This obvious reality has not prevented Turkey and Israel from competing to capitalize on the shifting dynamics in Syria. Turkey aims to consolidate its military presence by establishing bases and operating under the guise of training a so-called "Syrian Army," which in fact remains in the conceptual stage. Conversely, Israel views the Turkish presence as a threat to its own influence and strategic depth in Syria, concerned that it could bolster radical Islamist groups deemed unreliable and potentially hostile.
Malign Interference from the Outset
This analysis underscores the detrimental role played by external actors—particularly the Turkish occupying state—in perpetuating the conflict and obstructing peace initiatives in Syria. From the beginning of the crisis, Turkey pursued direct intervention, facilitating the influx of thousands of foreign mercenaries. This significantly empowered extremist and radical Islamist factions, including ISIS and al-Qaeda, at the expense of national and democratic forces. Turkish forces entered Syrian territory, occupied substantial areas, and supported loyal mercenary groups such as the so-called "Syrian National Army."
As a result of sustained backing, these extremist gangs were able to entrench their influence and seize the opportunity to assert control in various parts of Syria. While the Damascus government seeks to portray itself—both domestically and internationally—as committed to moderation and reform, its efforts are undermined by the continued presence of thousands of foreign mercenaries brought in by Turkey, as well as the many factions Ankara continues to support directly. This has been evidenced by a string of crimes along the Syrian coast, in addition to acts of assassination, revenge, and extrajudicial killings across towns and villages, all of which hinder the state’s ability to implement a more conciliatory policy.
The Uyghurs in the Syrian Scene
In a report, the American magazine Foreign Policy reviewed the dimensions of the Uyghurs' presence in the Syrian scene following their participation in the revolution and involvement in governance. It pointed to Chinese concerns over this matter and stated: "Over the past decade, thousands of Uyghurs have arrived in Syria from China via the occupying state of Turkey. Their leaders in Damascus today claim that the Uyghur community numbers about 15,000 people, including 5,000 fighters." Most of them live in Idlib city, and they are known among Syrians as “Turkistanis.” They have established schools, and they run gas stations and restaurants.
The Libyan Model Looms Before the Syrians
As mentioned earlier, even if the Damascus authority desires openness and behavioral change, the presence of foreign mercenaries and armed groups directly supported by Ankara poses a significant obstacle. This is similar to what happened in the Libyan crisis, where the issue of mercenaries, foreign fighters, and militias linked to the occupying state of Turkey remains unresolved. This has hindered international efforts to end the Libyan crisis and launch a genuine political process.
Furthermore, the presence of these extremist foreign mercenaries in a country like Syria—built on religious, sectarian, ethnic, and national pluralism—threatens civil peace. The influence and power of extremists have become evident through suspicious activities in Syrian territory. Reports have spoken of so-called Hisbah patrols wandering through Christian neighborhoods in the Syrian capital, Damascus, imposing restrictions on residents. Unknown individuals have also made extremist calls while roaming these areas, and foreign elements have been seen manning checkpoints on the outskirts of Damascus, questioning civilians about their religion and sect.
Political and Military Turkish Penetration
The occupying Turkish state seeks to exploit the presence of foreign mercenaries and various factions as leverage against international powers working to resolve the crisis, and as a means to pressure the Damascus authority and threaten rebellion if Turkish policies are not followed. So far, these groups refuse to surrender their weapons to the Damascus authority. Turkey aims to maintain its role as a dominant force in Syria through these groups, asserting that it alone can control and contain them.
Turkey has not limited its involvement to mercenaries and factions. It has also attempted to legitimize its presence and influence over the Syrian political scene by forming a legal committee tasked with drafting a constitutional declaration. This document excluded various democratic Syrian political components and advocates the Islamization of the Syrian state. By examining the nature of individuals within this committee—and the one that managed the so-called national dialogue—it becomes clear how deep Turkish influence runs.
Following the fall of the Assad regime and the arrival of a new authority in Damascus, and in light of the Turkish influence on Syrian soil and Ankara’s ability to pressure this authority, Turkey has begun discussing early political, military, and economic agreements with this authority, despite the country still being in a transitional phase. Therefore, any such agreements are considered illegitimate and lack any legal foundation.
Turkey is also pursuing a border demarcation agreement with Damascus and aims to sign long-term deals that allow it to build additional military bases deep inside Syria—beyond its previous border-only deployments. This increases Turkey's grip on Syrian affairs and expands its influence and hegemony. It also seeks to control the Syrian army and security forces under the pretext of training them, which poses a threat to Syria’s independence and its military and security institutions.
As part of its efforts to dominate Syria, the Turkish Ministry of Defense has announced plans to appoint a military advisor to the Syrian army. This means Turkish officers would direct the political and military leadership of the Syrian army and train its officers, creating an ideological army tied to Turkey at the expense of Syria’s own military doctrine and interests.
Moreover, arming the Syrian army with Turkish weapons and equipment means military dependence on Ankara, ensuring long-term Turkish hegemony over Syria. Turkey’s efforts to establish two airbases in central Syria would give it the freedom to move within Syrian territory and conduct military operations in line with its own interests.
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