M4 Highway: Gateway to Syria’s economic revolution

As a result of the Syrian revolution that erupted in 2011, Syria experienced many military and political changes, among which was the economic field that underwent the most profound transformation. In those regions where the fighting has slightly stopped, a new kind of warfare has started that revolves around trade routes, energy pipelines, crossing borders, logistics, and transport infrastructure. The center of this war is the M4 international highway.

The M4 is a strategic corridor that is 682 kilometers long.

The M4 highway is 682 kilometers long, extending from the port city of Latakia on the Mediterranean coast and going through Jisr al-Shughur, Ariha, Saraqib, Aleppo, Raqqa, Tal-Tamer, Hasakah, and Qamishlo until it reaches Tel-Kocher (Rabia) on the Iraqi border.

This highway is one of the most important strategic corridors in the regional economic battle, given the fact that it is located 20-30 kilometers near the Turkish border.

Connection between Iraq and the Mediterranean

M4 is the shortest route linking the oil reserves, agricultural zones, and border crossings of North and East Syria to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The M4 road acts as an outlet to the Mediterranean through the port of Latakia up to the border crossing of Tel Kocher with Iraq.

In its full operational capacity, this route will allow the transportation of merchandise from Iraq to the Mediterranean and then onwards to Europe via the sea route. It can be used as an important junction for overland commerce between the Gulf States and Turkey.

Another important feature that gives strategic value to the road is its linkage with the M5 International Road at Saraqib, linking trade between Damascus, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo to the east-west line provided by the M4, making it one of the most important logistical assets of Syria.

Thus, domination of the road is not only a security issue, but also an economic resource that can influence trade worth billions of dollars.

Years of war in Syria

In the years of war in Syria, the M4 international road underwent many changes of control between different parties, including the forces of the Ba'athist regime, the jihadist groups, ISIS/Daesh mercenaries, the Syrian Democratic Forces SDF, and the Syrian National Army factions supported by Turkey.

The road became an important axis for supply lines in military matters on the fronts of Aleppo, Idlib, and Raqqa, thus becoming the subject of many military operations because of its significant effect on the balance of power on the ground.

After the military operation undertaken by Turkey and its allies against the towns of Serê Kaniyê/ Ras al-Ain and Girê Sipî/ Tal Abyed in October 2019, some parts of the road were put under new strict security measures. As per the understandings between Turkey and Russia, joint patrol was carried out in parts of the M4, while security corridors were established along the route. Other parts of the road remained shut off to the civilian population for many years due to the military and security situation.

Military occupation turns into economic control

While the struggle for the M4 highway in the early years of the Syrian conflict was mainly about military and security matters, the struggle in modern times revolves more around gaining economic control.

The reconstruction of Syria after the war is seen by the regional and international actors as an ideal opportunity to benefit economically from Syria. Turkey, the US, the UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states are trying to increase their influence in the economy of Syria in different ways.

On the contrary, other political actors at the local level see this as “economic occupation.”

The Turkish plan

Turkey sees the M4 highway as a symbol of the economic policy that the country pursues in northern Syria. The road runs on the Turkish-Syrian border and plays an important role for the region as an artery for trade and logistics with fast and more convenient access. As a part of its policy of promoting the project of the "Middle East Highway", Turkey hopes to get direct access to Jordan and Gulf countries through the territory of Syria. In case the plan comes true, Turkish goods will have access to Gulf markets faster. In addition, reviving the M4 highway will allow integrating the logistics of a considerable amount of Iraqi and Gulf trade into the logistics of Turkey.

January 29 Agreement and resumption of M4 Highway traffic

The M4 international highway was opened to transportation between Hasakah and Aleppo on March 10 following the January 29 agreement made by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Interim Government.

Approximately two months after that, in May, the first caravan of trucks coming from Turkey crossed the Girê Sipî/ Tal Abyed border crossing, traveled down the M4 highway and reached the Tel Kocher border crossing before going into Iraq.

Conversely, oil tankers from Iraq started crossing the Tel Kocher border crossing via the M4 highway to enter Syria ports in Tartus and Banias.

M4 is now used continuously by commercial trucks from Iraq and Turkey.

Economic Importance from Markets and Industrial Centers on the Way

The M4 highway is becoming economically more important due to the presence of commercial centers, industrial zones and local markets along the route.

These include the industrial regions of Aleppo, agriculture of Raqqa, wheat and energy of Hasakah, and the border trading possibilities of Qamishlo. All these help increase the economic importance of the M4 highway.

It is expected by many businessmen and investors that during the post-war era, many major centers of commerce would be built along the M4, thus making the regions lying along the road candidates for significant economic and commercial development.

There emerges a new corridor from Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea.

The resumption of traffic across the border of Tel Kocher (Rabia) has sparked an interest in the energy and trade routes that connect Iraq with the Mediterranean Sea through Syrian territory. The significance of such developments is particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of preparation for the transportation of Iraqi oil to the ports of Tartus and Banias.

According to data from the General Directorate of Customs and Border Crossings, an average of 700 tankers per day enter Syria from Iraq through the border crossing of Tel Kocher (Rabia).

The Syrian Interim Government forecasts revenues from customs taxes and transit charges on such tankers to be about $30 million per month, with plans for increasing the numbers in the future.

Infrastructural issues, security considerations, and key challenges

While trade routes have been re-opened, Syria still encounters a number of issues in the sphere of security, politics, economy, and society.

Some of the political and military developments taking place during the interim government's rule include attacks on Swedia, abuse of Alawites, delayed implementation of the January 29 agreement, Israel's occupation of part of southern Syria, ISIS mercenaries, and many more. In addition to this, there is much destruction caused by years of warfare in terms of roads, bridges, and infrastructures which is another issue to be faced while opening trade routes.

Thus, the maintenance services continue working on rehabilitation of bridges, junctions, and road segments heavily damaged during the war. Infrastructural upgrades in the framework of the Aleppo-Latakia axis are necessary for full restoration of the trade route.

At the moment, the interim government focuses on the M4 and M5 highways.

Claims regarding long-term operating rights in favor of Turkey

Recently, the M4 highway has gained more geopolitical attention, with unverified rumors and allegations of the awarding or leasing of long-term operating and administration rights of certain parts of the highway to Turkey. These rumors imply that Ankara has gained extensive powers in the fields of logistics management, customs procedures, and security operations on the Aleppo-Latakia axis.

Nevertheless, nothing has been officially verified regarding the accuracy of these rumors by the concerned authorities. At the same time, official pronouncements by both Syrian and Turkish parties revolve around boosting the trade, restoration of infrastructure, and fostering economic cooperation.

M4 and the new phase of conflicts in Syria

During the new phase of conflicts in Syria, which is related to economic influence and control, M4 is an important route for trade and transit and can become the main driver of the post-war Syrian economy.

The route passes through the area in which energy pipelines, trade routes and logistic systems meet with the balance of regional power from the Mediterranean to the Iraqi border.

In fact, the importance of the M4 route as an important strategic axis in the region increases in connection with the appearance of new trade and oil projects and corridors in the Middle East. There are forecasts that full operation of the M4 can allow the creation of a new logistics chain that would connect ports in the Mediterranean, Iraq and Gulf countries.

It means that M4 will play a major role in the economic, political and geopolitical processes in Syria in the coming years. In addition, further development of this road will be the criterion of the economic model in Syria after the war.

ANHA