Tension in Iraq, calls for the withdrawal of American forces...goals, paths

Tension has been rising in Iraq as a result of the continued targeting of International Coalition bases in Iraq by armed factions loyal to Tehran, and the subsequent American counterattacks on them since mid-October. This has raised questions about the future of the American military presence in Iraq and the nature of the relationship between Washington and Baghdad.

What is noteworthy is that this tension was followed by calls for the exit of these forces. In this context, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani said that Iraq wants a quick and orderly exit of the US-led military forces from its territory, through negotiation, but he did not set a final date.

Al-Sudani described the presence of these forces on his territory as destabilizing in light of the regional repercussions of the war between Israel and Hamas, according to Reuters.

The motives and importance of these calls

These calls come in conjunction with attacks launched by pro-Iranian forces on American bases in both Iraq and Syria, and this is what gives the calls a kind of importance and gives them media and political momentum. These attacks constitute field pressure that strengthens calls to remove American forces.

It also coincides with the escalation of tension between Iran on the one hand and the United States, the West and Israel on the other hand, and this is what could give these calls additional momentum and strength, considering that these calls and attacks are planned and ordered by Iran, and therefore these calls and attacks could increase in this case with the escalation of tension between Washington and Tehran, and that Iran’s goals in Iraq should develop from pressuring Washington through these moves to resolving this file and working to seriously end the American presence.

At the same time, the political forces representing the forces loyal to Iran feel that they are in a stronger state internally that allows them to issue these calls, as they are able to put pressure on Iraqi official circles, including the current Sudanese prime minister, to a greater extent than previous prime ministers, and this is what has been shown. Through the movements and statements of Al-Sudani, who responded quickly to these calls and said that the Iraqi government is moving toward ending the presence of the International Coalition in Iraq, in addition to the Iraqi army’s condemnation of the American bombing of the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces, where the spokesman for the Iraqi armed forces, Major General Yahya Rasoul, said that the American attack “An attack similar to terrorist acts,” according to what the Iraqi News Agency reported on January 4.

  What increases the strength of these pro-Iranian political forces is what they achieved during the recently held local elections, which are considered, according to reports and opinion polls, to have achieved a historic gain that enables them to consolidate their dominance over power without a competitor.

The course of these calls: American rejection and repercussions for Iraq

Despite this, there are several indications that the United States of America is not about to withdraw. On the one hand, Washington has intensified its diplomatic movements with the countries of the region in conjunction with field movements announcing the formation of an alliance in the Red Sea, in addition to the escalation of its targeting of official headquarters of the forces loyal to it. For Iran, it appears to be decisive in its decision to maintain its influence inside Iraq.

On the other hand, there are several obstacles and limitations facing Iran’s efforts, the most prominent of which is that decisive escalation with American forces could lead to more division and tension among Iraqis, with the possibility that forces opposing this path will emerge. What encourages this option is the repercussions of escalation with the United States. Especially economic, leading to the possibility of the collapse of the Iraqi economy due to the Iraqi government’s reliance on banking and financial support from Western Company, as the American side controls Iraqi financing. Meaning the amounts that come from American banks for oil prices, and this is what complicates the mission of Iran’s influencers.

In this context, the Independent Arab newspaper believes in a report published on January 3 that one of the indicators of the non-withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is the change in the rules of engagement by the latter, as these rules went through several stages, the first stage of which was the response to those forces, and then Responding directly to the perpetrators of the attacks, until it reached the point of targeting the headquarters and strategic centers of those groups, as happened during the past weeks when the headquarters of the "Hezbollah Brigades" were targeted.

T/ Satt.

ANHA