Syrian researcher warns of dangerous trajectories for Syrian scene, calls for social contract

After many long years of crisis in Syria, and with the fall of the Baathist regime and the rise of al-Sharaa in its place, questions are increasingly being raised about the country’s future under the current governing mentality whether Syria is moving toward building a modern state capable of restoring its sovereignty and unity, or toward reproducing old patterns of rule in new forms.

Syrian political researcher Mohammad al-Huwaidi has warned of dangerous paths the Syrian situation may take in the coming phase, affirming that all scenarios currently under discussion share one common result: “the absence of the state in its modern sense, and the persistence of Syria as an arena rather than a cohesive political entity.”

In his reading of the Syrian scene, al-Huwaidi believes the first of these scenarios lies in the “reproduction of authoritarianism in a collective or institutionalized form, where crude individual despotism disappears but is replaced by a closed power network that monopolizes politics, the economy, and security.”

The second scenario, according to al-Huwaidi, involves “the transformation of the state into a de facto authority incapable of imposing its sovereignty, subject to regional and international balances, and managing crises instead of resolving them.”

The Syrian researcher warns of a third path, which he describes as “the most dangerous”: the accumulation of social and sectarian tensions, opening the door to delayed civil confrontations that may not be organized but would be devastating.

Regarding possible solutions, al-Huwaidi stressed that Syria “does not need an imported model or a ready-made ideology, but rather a realistic system of governance that stems from its social structure and political history.”

He explained that the first pillar of any national project is a civil, constitutional state in which the law is above everyone, powers are separated, and individual and collective rights are guaranteed without religious, sectarian, or ethnic discrimination. He emphasized that a civil state in this context is not an intellectual luxury, but a prerequisite for managing a diverse society such as Syria’s.

He also noted that political and administrative decentralization has become a necessity rather than a choice, pointing out that extreme centralization was one of the reasons for the collapse of the state. He stressed that decentralization is not a prelude to division, but rather a guarantee of unity, as long as core sovereign matters remain in the hands of the central authority within a unified state.

In the same context, al-Huwaidi called for a new social contract based on individual accountability rather than collective punishment, on transitional justice rather than revenge, and on mutual recognition among all components of society. He stressed that it is impossible to build a state with a victor-versus-vanquished mentality, or to mend a shattered society through rhetoric of accusation and betrayal.

Regarding the transitional phase, the Syrian researcher affirmed that any transitional authority must have clearly defined powers and a limited timeframe, with its primary task being to prepare the country for a genuine democratic transition through a consensual constitution, fair elections, and the rebuilding of state institutions on national not factional or ideological foundations.

Al-Huwaidi concluded by saying that Syria today stands at a rare historical moment: either it transforms into a state of citizens, or it merely topples the head of the regime while preserving the same logic of rule. He added that the Syrian experience, with all its pain, confirms one fundamental truth: there is no stability without justice, no unity without partnership, and no state without citizenship.

He further stressed that the governing mentality is the first battle, even before any constitution or elections, warning that any authority that views Syria not as a diverse homeland but as political spoils is doomed to fall, sooner or later.

ANHA