Researcher: war on Iran could reshape balance of power in Middle East

The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel continues in a conflict that is no longer limited to military confrontation alone, but also involves intertwined political, economic, and ideological dimensions. Amid rising tensions, questions are increasing about the consequences of this conflict for the peoples of the region and its stability, as well as the potential shifts it may bring to the balance of power and the future of the region.

ANHA agency conducted an interview with researcher in Iranian affairs Hani Suleiman, who confirmed that the continuation of the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran will have repercussions on the political and economic levels of the region. He noted that the consequences of this conflict could reshape the balance of power and affect the stability of the Middle East for many years.

Political implications

Suleiman says that “the war will have a direct impact on the structure and nature of regional power balances, as the outcomes and results of the conflict could lead to a clear change in the balance of power and relations among the countries of the region, particularly regarding the future roles of Israel and Iran in the Middle East.”

He adds that “an important part of the repercussions is linked to the nature of Iran’s regional relations. Iranian policies over the past years, and the interventions associated with them in some neighboring countries, have created significant tension in its relations with several states. This may leave long-term effects, particularly in its relations with the Gulf countries.”

Suleiman believes that “political regimes in the region may increasingly move toward strengthening individual and collective security systems, especially among Gulf states that have been subjected to attacks. This will push them to develop new security approaches, either individually or through frameworks of regional cooperation such as the Gulf Cooperation Council.”

The researcher also expects the region to witness a noticeable arms race, as countries seek to increase their military spending and invest more heavily in defensive capabilities, particularly advanced missile defense systems.

Inside Iran, Suleiman considers it likely that the continuation of the war will strengthen the influence of the hardline faction in the decision-making process, with a trend toward greater rigidity in positions and efforts to further develop military capabilities and the missile program something that could keep the region in a state of tension for a long time.

He notes that these developments may be accompanied by multiple scenarios, including the continuation of the Iranian regime’s current policies or internal changes. However, in his view, what is certain is that the region is entering a complex phase that may witness a redrawing of the political power map.

Economic repercussions

On the economic level, Suleiman confirms that “the war will have a direct impact on the economies of the region’s countries and their peoples, especially if it continues for a long period, as the cost of the war and the associated losses will be difficult to absorb.”

He adds that “the continuation of the conflict may affect development programs and economic transformation plans adopted by some countries, such as the economic plans in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, including Saudi Vision 2030, which is fundamentally based on the equation of stability.”

He believes that this equation could be shaken, which may necessitate a reformulation of some economic priorities, with the possibility of directing greater resources toward defense and military spending instead of development projects.

He also expects that labor markets in the region will be affected, particularly regarding expatriate labor and financial remittances, which could in turn impact the economies of neighboring countries that rely on these remittances.

He points out that the energy sector will be at the heart of these repercussions, whether in terms of oil production and securing its supplies or the possibility that the conflict could shift into competition over energy resources and maritime routes.

He adds that this could lead to disruptions in international trade and maritime navigation, as well as potential impacts on global supply chains, rising prices, and declining economic growth rates in the region.

He also notes that some countries could face direct repercussions, such as Egypt if navigation through the Suez Canal is affected, or Gulf countries if their oil and gas exports face disruptions.

Ideological dimensions

Suleiman stresses that the war also carries clear ideological dimensions that will be reflected in beliefs and identities within the societies of the region.

He explains that Iranian discourse is based on ideological foundations linked to the literature of the Iranian Revolution, such as the idea of “exporting the revolution” and the discourse of “resistance” against the American and Israeli projects.

In contrast, he believes that “the Israeli side also operates within an ideological context associated with the project of Greater Israel, while attempting to exploit the regional moment to reduce threats and expand influence, especially after the developments witnessed in arenas linked to Iran, such as Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Syria.”

He adds that “these ideological dimensions may even influence public opinion within the countries of the region, where popular sympathy with Iran may appear in some societies, while opposition to it may emerge in others, particularly in light of previous tensions between Iran and some Gulf states.”

Suleiman believes that “the issue of identity and beliefs may become an influential factor in managing the conflict and shaping its outcomes, as the region may witness a return of political and religious discourses associated with resistance or ideological confrontation.”

Hani Suleiman is an Egyptian researcher specializing in Iranian affairs and the managing editor of the journal Political Horizons. He is also the director of the Arab Center for Research and Studies. He holds a master’s degree in civil–military relations and has numerous research contributions published in Arab and international journals.

ANHA