Political Analyst: Iran conflict will shape Syria's future

Syrian writer and political activist Ali Al-Amin Al-Suwaid believes that the outcome of the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel will determine the future of the region and Syria.

Al-Suwaid explained what he sees as the roots of the Western conflict with Iran and the criteria for victory for both sides, saying:

"Since the clerical regime came to power in Tehran in 1979, Iran has sought to secure international legitimacy and gain acceptance as a nuclear state. Knowing that joining the nuclear club was unlikely, Iran shifted the pressure to its regional environment by establishing what it describes as terrorist organizations whose declared aim was fighting Israel and what it calls global arrogance represented by the United States, and more recently ISIS and Al-Qaeda, which he claimed were themselves created by Iran."

He added:

"Iran has continued what he described as its regional interference in one of the world's richest and most strategically important regions. It established Hezbollah in Lebanon under the banner of resistance to liberate Palestine, supported Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Iraq and Syria, backed the former Assad regime, and supported the Houthi movement in Yemen. As a result, much of the Arab region fell under Iranian influence, leaving its peoples hostage to Iranian policies and ambitions."

Al-Suwaid argued that the current military confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other reflects what he considers a decisive effort by the United States, Western countries, and Israel to end Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons.

He said that a U.S. and Israeli victory would end Iran's nuclear ambitions, while an Iranian victory would consolidate its nuclear project and secure its entry into the ranks of nuclear powers.

On the consequences of Iran's resilience or victory for the Middle East and Syria, Al-Suwaid stated:

"Iran's victory would mean international acceptance of it as a nuclear power with an expansionist political agenda in the Middle East. The region after such an outcome would be very different from what it was before."

He added that Iran has long supported its allies and affiliated groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gulf countries through its economic resources, and that a victory would further strengthen its influence across the Arab world through various political and economic means.

On Syria specifically, he said Iran would likely impose strict conditions to ensure its interests, including preserving economic agreements signed during the Assad era and requiring Syria to repay debts owed to Iran.

He also argued that Iran would become the leading player in shaping regional policies and that political Islam would gain greater influence in neighboring countries, contributing to prolonged instability.

Discussing the possible consequences of a U.S. victory, Al-Suwaid said:

"A U.S. victory over Iran would end Iran's nuclear project. Whether the clerical regime remains in power or falls, the Arab region would be freed from what he described as an eastern expansionist threat. However, the region could then become an arena for new forms of rivalry between Turkey and Israel."

He added that eliminating what he called the "head of the Iranian octopus" would weaken Iran's allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and other Gulf states, and would permanently reduce the opportunities for political Islam to expand in the region.

On Syria's future, Al-Suwaid stressed that more than a year and a half after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria remains far from achieving security, political stability, and social cohesion.

He warned that unless the transitional government adopts policies that promote national unity and rebuild a shared Syrian identity respected by all citizens, competing regional agendas will continue to gain influence inside the country.

He concluded by saying that, regardless of whether Iran wins or loses, Syria should focus on winning the trust of all its citizens, strengthening internal unity, ending unilateral rule, and establishing a modern democratic system that encourages Syrians to defend their country.

Al-Suwaid also noted that the outcome of the confrontation between Iran and the West would have direct consequences for Syria. In his view, an Iranian victory would have negative effects on the country, while Iran's defeat could reshape the political balance both within Syria and across the region, potentially intensifying political competition and polarization, with possible negative impacts on Syria's security and economy.

a.k

ANHA