Iran escalation threatens war of attrition, tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz

Today’s international press addressed the risks of the Iran war turning into a long war of attrition, as Tehran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran war at risk of turning into a “Ukrainian Quagmire”

An analysis by the American magazine Foreign Affairs suggests that the ongoing war with Iran is moving toward a “war of attrition” model similar to the Russian war in Ukraine, placing the United States at risk of being drawn into a prolonged conflict without a decisive outcome.

According to Foreign Affairs, Washington and Tel Aviv had bet on a swift strike to weaken the Iranian regime and impose a new reality, but Iran’s intensive response with missiles and drones has turned the conflict into a battlefield stalemate, where neither side has a clear ability to achieve decisive victory.

The analysis, written by James Jeffrey, indicates that this type of war, like in Ukraine, relies on the gradual depletion of military and economic capabilities rather than quick resolution, increasing the political and economic cost of war for all parties.

The magazine notes that Iran is adopting a dual strategy: exhausting its opponents’ air defense systems and waging a “war of pain” by threatening energy supplies and raising oil prices—an approach already impacting U.S. allies in Europe and Asia.

On the other hand, Washington faces significant constraints, most notably the difficulty of launching a ground war, widespread domestic opposition to prolonged involvement, and the absence of nearby launch bases as was the case in Iraq, making military options limited, according to the magazine.

The analysis suggests that the most realistic exit lies in a political settlement, including a ceasefire in exchange for permanent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and missile arsenal, potentially achieving relative stability without reaching the ultimate goal of regime change.

Foreign Affairs warns that continuing the war without clearly defined, achievable objectives could lead to a years-long open conflict, as seen in Ukraine, emphasizing that accepting a compromise now is better than falling into a prolonged “quagmire” that drains U.S. power and undermines its global influence.

Iran seeks to impose restricted transit system in the Strait of Hormuz amid war

Iran is working to impose a new mechanism to control ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes, in a move that could extend beyond the current war, according to an analysis by the British newspaper Financial Times.

According to the report, Tehran has proposed an “approved transit” system allowing only “non-hostile” vessels to pass, excluding ships linked to the United States, Israel, or any parties it considers involved in the conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran seeks to impose new arrangements for safe passage reflecting its sovereignty over the strait.

The analysis points to a sharp decline in maritime traffic, with the number of transiting vessels dropping by about 97% since the escalation began. Some ships have resorted to special arrangements, including paying fees that may reach up to $2 million to ensure passage.

It also explains that transit now requires prior governmental coordination with Tehran, followed by issuing special identification codes for vessels to broadcast through maritime channels, along with Iranian scrutiny of cargo destinations and crew nationalities.

While some Asian vessels and “dark fleet” ships benefit from these arrangements, Western companies face legal dilemmas due to sanctions imposed on Iran, complicating any potential fee payments, according to the newspaper.

Legal experts believe that any Iranian attempt to impose fees or restrict transit may conflict with international navigation freedom rules, despite Tehran’s right to regulate passage for security reasons.

The newspaper warns that continuing this approach may push Gulf states to seek strategic alternatives, such as pipelines, which could gradually reduce the long-term strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. 

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ANHA