Gaza War: fateful negotiations in Cairo; unoptimistic expectations

Egypt, which is hosting the upcoming round of talks between the warring parties in Gaza, is holding out for the possibility of reaching a deal, and is talking about its ongoing efforts with all regional and international actors to stop the fire in the Gaza Strip and work to contain the escalation in the region.

Informed sources told ANHA's agency that Hamas is particularly concerned about Netanyahu’s demand to keep Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor, a strip extending from the east of the Strip to its west, and also the presence of Israeli forces in the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow border strip between Gaza and Egypt.

The sources, who declined to be identified, added that Netanyahu’s demands could derail the negotiations at the last minute and prevent a ceasefire, noting that Egypt is expected not to accept the final conditions.

Unoptimistic expectations

University professor of geopolitics, retired Brigadier General Khalil al-Helou, spoke to ANHA's agency about the issue, and considered that "there is no horizon for negotiations, as Netanyahu insists on his conditions, especially continuing the war and eliminating Hamas. He accuses Hamas of faltering the negotiations, but everyone knows that Netanyahu is the obstructionist. As for Hamas, it no longer has anything to lose, and accepting the conditions imposed on it is unacceptable, except with a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one as Netanyahu imposes under the framework of the "truce."

America, through its efforts, is working to end the war and seeks a ceasefire, and this was confirmed by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who said: "We are working to end the war in Gaza, and time is very necessary because it puts the region in danger of escalation," describing the negotiations that will take place in Cairo as the last chance for a ceasefire.

According to Khalil al-Helou, America is asking Hamas to accept the terms of the truce as a first step, then reach a permanent ceasefire as a second step, but Hamas rejects this equation as long as it is able to confront Israel and has underground capabilities. He said: "This is what we have witnessed it for 11 months until today, as Israel has not been able to eliminate Hamas until now.

Al-Helou believes that if the negotiations succeed, “we will face many dilemmas regarding the day after Gaza and who will rule it, and whether Hamas will be removed from the political scene in Gaza. It is worth noting that there are attempts to include Hamas in the PLO and Israel’s rejection of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza.”

What is the fate of the Lebanese front, which is witnessing a high rate of escalation?

The southern Lebanese front is experiencing daily heat and continuous escalation as Israel continues to pressure Hezbollah militarily and on the ground, through its use of the policy of assassinations of the party's leaders, as well as its bombing of military sites and weapons depots, the latest of which was in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.

Al-Helou believes that the assassination of the leader of the "Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades" affiliated with the "Fatah" movement in Lebanon, Khalil al-Maqdah, is a precedent set by Israel, especially since this wing is participating in the Gaza war, and al-Maqdah is responsible for supplying the West Bank with weapons and money from Iran, according to Major General Munir al-Maqdah, the official in the Ain al-Hilweh camp and Khalil al-Maqdah's brother.

Al-Helou adds that the West Bank is turning from protest demonstrations and skirmishes into a real war through explosives, armor-piercing explosive devices, and Iranian weapons that are transferred from Jordan to the West Bank, and thus the West Bank poses a threat to Israel; There are three million Palestinians and 600,000 Israeli settlers who are trying to make it uninhabitable for Palestinians, and this assassination is the first of its kind, and a series of assassinations could follow.

What are the upcoming scenarios for the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel?

The upcoming scenarios are far from a comprehensive war according to al-Helou; Hezbollah does not want to expand this war. It is true that it was the one who initiated the opening of the southern front in support of Gaza, but later on, Israel is the one carrying out assassinations of Hezbollah leaders and targeting sites belonging to it, and we see the very rapid pace. As for an invasion, Israel is not enthusiastic.

He believes that its violation of Lebanese territory does not entail diplomatic burdens or protests, and there is no ground operation that would make it violate international laws or require a request to withdraw. Therefore, the next scenario for the war is most likely to continue the confrontation at an escalating pace. Israel wants to force Hezbollah to retreat and withdraw from the border strip to a depth of five to eight kilometers, and then Israel asked the party to retreat to the 40 km border.

He pointed out that the goal is clear, which is to restore security to the residents of the north who were displaced as a result of Hezbollah's operations. As for the party, it says that the southern front will stop if the Gaza war stops, but the indicators show that the Gaza war is ongoing, and therefore Hezbollah will continue its war, and it is likely that there will be no invasion operation unless the United States is unable to pressure Israel.

Al-Helou adds that Israel will not take any action that would harm the interests of the United States, which does not want to see Iran involved in the war if Lebanon is invaded, and does not want to get involved in a war with Iran, and this is what it has made clear in its repeated statements.

The scenario is therefore likely to escalate and ease; and it is linked to the negotiations that will be held in Cairo and the results they will bring.

What about the Iranian response?

Al-Helou believes that the response to the assassination of Fouad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh will inevitably happen, and it is not possible to know the nature of the response, as it may be collective and harsh, but an act of this type may be responded to by Israel in a destructive way by striking Iranian oil ports, and this may ignite a regional war through the exchange of strategic bombing, and here we can say that Iran, Hezbollah and the United States do not desire war, unlike Israel, which has the desire for it and wants to involve Washington in it.

Al-Helou adds that Iran is studying the possibilities of response and will choose the possibility that enables it to direct a painful strike at Israel without involving the region in a regional war, and of course there is Iranian-American communication in this regard in terms of not responding during the ongoing negotiations, so that they do not falter, and it is clear that Iran is responding in this context, as it does not want to be accused of having destroyed the negotiations, and thus the Iranian response is coming inevitably, but it is linked to the negotiations and the results they will bring.

T/ Satt.

ANHA