Between signs of recovery, reality of rising costs: Syrians face ever widening livelihood gap

Talk of “economic recovery” in Syria has become little more than a distant echo reverberating through the corridors of international reports, while the living conditions of millions of Syrians continue to deteriorate to unprecedented levels. While macroeconomic indicators may suggest growth on paper, everyday life is becoming increasingly harsh, widening the gap between what is being said and what people are actually experiencing.

Speaking to our agency, (ANHA), economic researcher and development expert Jalal Al-Kilani said the current crisis “is not the result of a single factor, but rather the culmination of years of harsh macroeconomic policies, structural deficiencies in the financial infrastructure, and excessive dependence on imports. These factors have combined to turn the national economy into a hostage to fluctuations in the parallel market.”

Al-Kilani explained that years of subsidies had served as a lifeline for the poorest segments of society. However, the shift toward austerity measures under financial reform programmes came as a direct shock to these groups.

“Fuel prices were liberalized to bring them closer to international levels, immediately driving up transportation, industrial, and agricultural costs. The country witnessed widespread protests over fuel price increases, prompting the government to temporarily reverse some of the hikes. However, the damage had already been done,” he said.

He added that “the removal of subsidies on bread, Syria’s staple food, pushed its price up tenfold, dealing a devastating blow to low-income households. Electricity bills were also swept up in this wave, with some consumers facing enormous increases that left many unable to use essential household appliances such as refrigerators.”

Liquidity shortages and dollarisation deepen the crisis

Addressing the liquidity shortage, Al-Kilani explained that “the Syrian economy is suffering from a severe shortage of Syrian-pound liquidity, exacerbated by restrictions on bank withdrawals, with extremely low weekly limits, disruptions to electronic payment services, and a complete loss of confidence in the Central Bank. As a result, the market has increasingly turned to dollarisation, undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy and leaving domestic prices at the mercy of fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate on the parallel market.”

Al-Kilani pointed to what he described as the central paradox: “Syria imports most of its food and raw materials. Consequently, any depreciation in the value of the Syrian pound is immediately reflected in domestic prices. Cumulative inflation this year has reached record levels, exceeding 50%, while food accounts for 53% of Syrian household expenditure. This means that any increase in food prices erodes any rise in income before it even reaches the pockets of ordinary citizens.”

He added that the US dollar exchange rate had surged beyond 14,500 Syrian pounds, triggering a new wave of price increases across a wide range of goods.

Salaries cover only one third of basic needs

The true extent of the crisis is most evident in the enormous gap between what citizens earn and what they need to survive. Despite successive salary increases of 200%, followed by another 50%, which raised the minimum wage to approximately 1.256 million Syrian pounds, these increases had effectively “evaporated” before workers even received them due to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound.

In numerical terms, a newly appointed university-educated government employee earns approximately 1.13 million Syrian pounds, while the extreme poverty threshold for a family stands at around 3.11 million pounds per month. This means that a government salary covers only about one-third of a household’s basic needs.

In its latest estimates of humanitarian needs for 2026, the United Nations identified 15.6 million people in need of assistance, including 13.3 million facing food insecurity, highlighting the continued intensification of livelihood pressures and the declining ability of households to secure their basic necessities.

These conditions are directly affecting household food security and health. Many families can no longer afford balanced meals. Field reports indicate that some households rely on preparing just one cooked meal every two days, while meat and chicken have disappeared from many dining tables, replaced by vegetables, whose prices have also risen sharply.

The consequences extend beyond food to healthcare. According to residents, some families have been forced to discontinue medical treatment or forgo purchasing medication for chronic conditions, including heart disease, after the cost of such medicines exceeded their entire monthly salaries.

Hama: A case study of how rising costs are undermining production and living conditions

Hama Governorate and its surrounding countryside offer a clear illustration of the economic crisis, with local conditions adding further weight to an already heavy burden. The governorate has witnessed a sharp increase in cooking gas cylinder prices, with a domestic cylinder reaching approximately 170,000 Syrian pounds, a 40% increase, while industrial cylinders have risen to 270,000 pounds. The impact of these increases extends far beyond cooking, reaching the very heart of the local economy.

Owners of bakeries, traditional restaurants, and small workshops warn that if these prices persist, they will either be forced to raise the prices of their final products, further fuelling inflation, or reduce production, thereby exacerbating unemployment.

According to field monitoring of markets in Hama, the cost of a simple breakfast for a family of five, consisting of labneh, cheese, eggs, olives, bread, and cooking gas, ranges between 70,000 and 130,000 Syrian pounds. This represents a substantial portion of a government employee’s salary, forcing families to count every gram and replace food items with cheaper alternatives in a desperate attempt to make ends meet.

The crisis is not limited to consumers; producers are also bearing its consequences. Farmers in the Hama countryside are struggling with deteriorating infrastructure, particularly several damaged bridges. This has increased the cost of transporting crops and agricultural supplies fourfold, forcing farmers to take longer and more exhausting routes. The situation threatens their primary source of livelihood while driving up agricultural production costs in a sector on which local markets depend.

Voices from markets, homes, and farmland

First-hand accounts reveal another dimension of the crisis. Statistics alone cannot tell the whole story, just as individual testimonies may not be sufficient on their own. Together, however, they paint a picture of the crisis as people actually experience it, rather than as it appears in reports.

In Hama’s Al-Hader neighbourhood, Iyad Al-Zaeem wipes the flour from his hands before explaining the impossible choice he faces: either raise the price of bread or turn off the bakery’s oven. This comes as domestic cooking gas cylinders have reached 170,000 Syrian pounds, while industrial cylinders cost 270,000 pounds.

“Gas is not a luxury in a bakery; it is the lifeblood of the business. When its price goes up, everything else goes up too: bread, pastries, even the cup of tea I sell,” Al-Zaeem said.

He opted for a compromise by introducing a modest price increase, but immediately paid the price as the number of customers began to decline. He summed up the situation by saying: “Hama is no different from anywhere else, but the pain here is greater because people were accustomed to a simple life. Now, even simplicity has become expensive.”

Meanwhile, Sawsan Brazi, an employee at the Hama Directorate of Education and a mother of two, has been forced to reorganize her monthly priorities around the electricity bill lying before her. She says her salary of 1.3 million Syrian pounds “melts away” by the fourth day of each month, consumed by electricity, gas, bread, infant formula, and transportation costs.

While her salary remains fixed, her husband's income from daily-wage work is irregular, with only a few working days available. As a result, meat has been absent from their dining table for months, while chicken has become “something we can only afford on holidays.”

Brazi describes how she responds to her children's questions: “God willing, next month. But next month comes, and everything becomes even more expensive. I end up borrowing money from relatives at the end of every month. This is our life.”

Transportation, rent, and clothing costs further narrow household choices

While the crisis in the city can be measured by the electricity bill, in the Hama countryside it is measured in distance and fuel costs.

In the village of Al-Tuwaini, Salem Shaheen sits outside his home beside sacks of harvested crops awaiting transportation. He explains how a bridge that has remained destroyed for years has become a permanent economic burden. The alternative route now makes the journey four times longer, while transportation costs have quadrupled.

“I am a farmer, but all the profits go towards the vehicle and fuel. Before the crisis, we used to take our crops straight to the market and sell them. Today, I spend more than I earn from selling them,” Shaheen said.

The losses extend beyond his own land. Some of his neighbours have abandoned farming and moved to the city, although he adds bitterly: “There is no work in the city either.”

Elsewhere, 29-year-old Samer Hijazi has been searching for an apartment for three months, but the figures have repeatedly put an end to his efforts. Rental prices in Hama range from 800,000 to two million Syrian pounds, while his combined income with his wife does not exceed 2.5 million pounds.

“How am I supposed to pay the rent and feed a child? Some landlords demand six months’ rent in advance,” Hijazi asks.

He explains that circumstances have forced the family into a temporary arrangement: living with their parents in a single room. He acknowledges that “it is not a solution, but it is the only option available.”

Meanwhile, Mufida Sijri, a mother of four, has seen the cost of winter clothing become a matter of survival rather than a luxury. According to her calculations, clothing her four children this year would cost 5.5 million Syrian pounds, equivalent to approximately 400 US dollars, at a time when her husband's working days in the construction sector have become increasingly scarce.

“I went to the second-hand clothing market and found some used items at lower prices, but even those were not cheap. I bought clothes for only two of my children. The others will have to wear last year's clothes, even if they have become too small,” she said.

She concluded with a sentence that captures a mother's priorities in times of soaring prices: “What matters is that they do not get sick. Medicine is more expensive than clothing.”

As the costs of food, energy, housing, transportation, and clothing continue to rise, while the purchasing power of salaries steadily declines, pressure on Syrian households continues to intensify. Field testimonies reveal that talk of economic recovery does not necessarily translate into improvements in people's lives. Instead, basic needs are forcing families to reassess their priorities on a daily basis, as the gap between economic indicators and the harsh reality of everyday life continues to widen.

ANHA