Achieving any settlement to end the Lebanon war is far-fetched

Fears are increasing about the repercussions of the ongoing war on the situation in Lebanon and the region, in light of the ongoing military escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

The ceasefire decision requires major concessions

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not accept a cessation of the war on Lebanon as long as there is a threat to the residents of the north, as he claims.

According to the writer and political analyst interested in Arab and Gulf affairs, Tariq Abu Zeinab, who spoke to ANHA's agency, he said: “The war on Lebanon is primarily concerned with the United States of America and the Israeli entity, and matters have become in terms of America’s intention and its disagreement with the Israeli entity’s government in implementing UN Resolution 1,701, which includes Resolution 1,559 at its core.”

Tareq Abu Zeinab explained that until now, the Lebanese caretaker government has not discussed the mechanism for reaching an understanding on a final ceasefire, especially the American proposal, which carries a problem related to implementing Resolution 1,701, which is how to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons, and also the question: Will the mechanism guarantee Palestinian weapons in the Palestinian camps located south of the Litani? Abu Zeinab said that the American envoy, Amos Hochstein, proposed to the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, the implementation of Resolution 1,701, including Resolution 1,559, so that the final agreement would be an understanding that includes a mechanism for implementing the resolution seriously. In this context, Abu Zeinab asks, is Hezbollah prepared to make concessions and implement all international resolutions as the United States and the Israeli government want? The dilemma in Lebanon's implementation of the international resolution and the deployment of the Lebanese army on all Lebanese territories is the fear that the Israeli side will not abide by any final agreements that occur later between the American envoy and Lebanon.

No Serious Solutions Before the US Elections

The US elections in November, as many are betting on, will be pivotal in the ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Abu Zeinab believes: "Serious solutions to stop the war depend on the US elections and the new US administration that will be in a decision-making position, especially since the entity's government is betting on wasted time and the continuation of the war and escalation, which is not in Lebanon's interest in particular."

The only solution, according to Abu Zeinab, lies in a quick ceasefire truce, electing a president for the Lebanese Republic, working quickly to deploy the Lebanese army throughout Lebanese territory, strengthening its presence in southern Lebanon with the United Nations forces operating in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), forming a strong national rescue government, and working to implement all international resolutions while seriously working to develop an economic plan and a post-war reconstruction plan.

The war will inevitably change Lebanon's demographics

The most dangerous thing about the war is the day after it, especially in terms of reconstruction, as there are no promises from the Gulf States to rebuild southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs, or the Bekaa Valley. Accordingly, according to Abu Zeinab, the Gulf States have become fully aware that allocating financial sums for reconstruction does not achieve results as long as international resolutions are not implemented and weapons are in the hands of Hezbollah, which has the power to decide peace and war. Accordingly, there will inevitably be a demographic change, and we will reach a major problem, as there is no international or Arab party that wants reconstruction after the war. As for Iran, according to Abu Zeinab, it does not want reconstruction, but will continue to invest in its militias in the region, by sending missiles and weapons for its own interests, so that these armed militias will be the front line of its defense.

Israel continues its war until its goals are achieved

The internal diplomatic efforts do not concern Israel or its prime minister, neither directly nor indirectly, according to political writer Elie Hajj, who stated through ANHA's agency that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not care about Speaker Berri or Prime Minister Mikati, and does not take the decision into consideration. He has bypassed Resolution 1,701 and will not return to it, and will put forward requests and amendments beyond its current form. Therefore, at the present time, he will not propose any solution for a ceasefire, but will continue his war by striking Hezbollah, its elements and its warehouses, and will not accept the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the south as long as Lebanon remains a state hostile to Israel. The scope of the war may expand by targeting more interests, facilities and institutions over the course of months, which means that the war will be long.

Hezbollah continues its war without caring about the fragmentation of its Shiite community

The field actually proves that Hezbollah has moved from supporting Israel to confronting it, despite its heavy losses and the strong blows that Israel has dealt it. According to Elie Hajj, Hezbollah's escalation towards Israel is very evident, and this is being achieved on the ground by targeting Israeli soldiers and destroying Israeli barracks and military bases, in addition to paralyzing a large part of Israel's normal life. In contrast, the party does not care about the losses and destruction resulting from the war it entered into with Israel. He said: "The war is taking place between two countries, Israel and Iran, on Lebanese soil, but in reality it is taking place on the land of the Shiite sect, especially in the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs. This sect has been afflicted by all standards with killing, destruction, and displacement, and the other Lebanese nation embraces it through shelter and humanitarian support."

The ongoing war has weakened the Shiite duo and internal strife is unlikely.

There has been a significant change in the balance of political power internally, especially with the Shiite duo, as they are no longer, according to Hajj, in the position of decision-maker and controller of the internal policies and decisions of the Lebanese state, and they must acknowledge this sooner or later.

As for the fear of internal strife, it is out of place, as the Lebanese army is capable of controlling the situation in any region where problems occur, and internal strife will not be in anyone's interest, especially Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, by provoking confrontations or being drawn into them with any party inside Lebanon, in these difficult circumstances, especially for the displaced Shiites in Lebanon who are suffering from displacement that may last for months and perhaps years.