​​​​​​​Many developments followed the previous round... What will the next Astana tour discuss?

The Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Russian President's envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Mikhail Bogdanov, announced days ago that the next round of the Astana track (Russia-Turkish Occupation-Iran) around Syria would be held on 22 and 23^rd November.

Following the previous round and 18 Astana meetings held in Nur-Sultan in mid-June, and the Tehran summit last July, the issue of the rapprochement between the Government of Damascus and the Turkish occupation, accompanied by the control of the occupied Afrin canton by Hayat Tahria al-Sham (HTS) mercenaries and the recent bombing in the Turkish city of Istanbul, has emerged. What will the next round discuss in light of the aforementioned developments?

No serious outputs for the next session

The head of the Syrian First Party, Salman Shabib, spoke about the next round, saying: "Astana's next tour, theoretically presumed to be somewhat different; Because the period that separated it from the previous round was marked by a number of developments and events associated with or affecting the Syrian file, but I excluded in the final outcome. that the new meeting succeeds in breaking the stereotype that has prevailed in all recent rounds, which reflects the current stalemate in the Syrian issue in general, with the absence of regional and international understandings as a definite result of the Ukrainian war and its significant repercussions, which deepen and become more dangerous to the entire global atmosphere and exclude serious outcomes. "

He added: "The next round will be a mere announcement that Astana's path still prevails and a final statement will be issued stressing the commitment of the three parties to Syria's unity and sovereignty. as they undermine this sovereignty and divide apart the unity of the land and the Syrian people.”

The rapprochement between Damascus and the Turkish occupation is the most important file that will lead the discussions

One of the most important things that could be on the agenda of the next round of discussions is the convergence between the Government of Damascus and the Turkish occupation, which, despite the latter's intensive promotion, is moving very slowly.

Turkish occupation Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu spoke of the possibility of upgrading contacts between "Ankara" and "Damascus" to the diplomatic level.

In response to these remarks, the Foreign Minister of the Government of Damascus, Faisal Mekdad, said: "We are listening to their statements, but this can begin with the elimination of terrorism, the lack of support for terrorism, the military withdrawal from Syrian territory and the cessation of any support for Jabhet al-Nusra and ISIS/ Daesh, all of which demonstrate the true intentions of this Turkish administration, despite all discussions over the past period."

On this, Shabib said, "Turkish statements are trying to suggest that there has been progress as a result of security meetings in Damascus and elsewhere between Turkey and Syria and that there is reasonable ground to move to another stage in relations. This has been expressed by a statement by the Turkish Foreign Minister that security talks may soon be moved to political in the sense of moving them to a new and higher level."

He added: "Despite the Russian push and Iran's continued encouragement to improve and develop the relationship and build an atmosphere of trust. This is my view of a Two-State factor. Syria remains reserved. There is a deep doubt with the Syrian leadership about Turkey's real intentions and objectives and any progress is contingent on a number of steps. in general, there could be clearer indications of any progress that might have been made in the profile of relations between the two countries during the next Astana round.”

Convergence of Economy Portal

Developments on the ground indicate that negotiations between the Government of Damascus and the Turkish occupation are moving towards an economic dimension.

In this context, the Damascus Government newspaper al-Watan said a few days ago: "Things are moving towards the opening of the Abu al-Zindin corridor, which links the areas of control of the Turkish regime's militias south-east of the occupied city of al-Bab with areas of control of the Syrian government north-east of Aleppo Governorate, and as the first results of the convergence between Damascus and Ankara.

On this, Shabib says: "For some time I have written that it is being done to reflect the normalization of the relationship between Turkey and Syria through economic crossings of great importance to all parties; As a result of the blockade, the difficult economic conditions it is experiencing and perhaps the complexity of the file and to move away from the complex issues between the Syrian and Turkish parties Russia has begun to build confidence by creating a mutual benefit formula, one of which is the crossing points. There are also modest steps being taken on the subject of the exchange of prisoners and detainees. I expect that these aspects will become more frequent as meetings continue whether they remain secure or move to the political level. "

Discussion of developments in the north of Syria

Shabib said: "Events in the north of Syria from bloody fighting between armed groups operating under Turkish auspices, including (HTS) the latter extends to new areas, most notably the city of Afrin and its surrounding, the dangerous dimensions carried by this expansion and the subsequent announcement of the operationalization of the previously announced Turkish plan and more than once the desire of the Turkish occupation to unite the factions and place them under a unified command, thereby facilitating their control and further activation in the realization of Turkish plans and aspirations in the Syrian territory. "

He explained: "The process of merging these groups helps him recycle groups classified as terrorists, and Turkey has been quick to exploit what has happened. It is certainly not far from their arms and their will to place him within their own vision and convene a meeting of Gazi Antab under the direct supervision of Turkish intelligence MIT, which has developed its decisions and will work to implement them in the order it deems appropriate. I expect that developments in the North will be discussed in the next round in connection with this and its impact on previous understandings, especially between the Russian and Turkish sides, reached within the framework of Astana itself. "

Astana's next tour. Platform to launch accusations and threats against North and East Syria

"He could exploit it as part of his ongoing attempts to strike the Peoples' Democratic Party and paralysing its considerable capacity and role in the upcoming elections, in which Erdogan's situation seems uncomfortable. It also gives him an opportunity to resubmit his occupation project for more Syrian land. This terrorist act will inevitably be exploited in the upcoming Astana tour to try to change the Russian and Iranian positions on this strongly rejecting project and warning of its results.

He added: "The whole Turkish narrative was not convincing, especially to charge Kurdish factions; all its history attests to the fact that it has not targeted civilians and has not acted in such a brutal and indiscriminate manner. Most importantly, it cannot be the beneficiary of such acts and the basic legal and criminal rule of criminal activity that I am looking first for the beneficiary.”

Astana's path has exhausted its role and energy

Syrian politician Salman Shabib, at the end of his speech, assessed Astana's path in general, saying: "Astana as previously drafted and its working mechanism thought that it had exhausted its role and energy and so far Russia has not succeeded in activating a new role for it to move from a path of calming fronts, extinguishing fires, finding military and field technical solutions and turning it into a maker of a political solution to the Syrian issue after the cessation of international efforts and the absence of any prospect of its return, which was announced during the Tehran conference between the countries of the Astana Group and the Sochi Summit that followed between Putin and Erdogan.

T/ Satt.

ANHA