​​​​​​​Researcher in international issues: Ukrainian developments heads towards Syrian and Afghan scenarios

 Russia continues its military action in Ukraine despite Western pressure on it, and media outlets reported that the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, is completely besieged from all sides, noting that there are Russian attempts to enter the Ukrainian capital from the northern region, amid violent Russian bombing of Arbin on the outskirts of Kyiv, while operations continue evacuation.

 The Washington Post reported that the United States and its allies are preparing a Ukrainian government-in-exile, and that they are providing Ukraine with weapons and equipment that could be crucial in the phase of street warfare.

 The Kremlin said in a statement that Russian President Vladimir Putin told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone call on Sunday that Russia would stop its "military operation" only if Ukraine stopped fighting and Moscow's demands were met.

 On this, our agency held a meeting with the Egyptian researcher and expert on international issues, Dr. Khaled Mustafa.

 What are the battle axes and their importance?

 Khaled Mustafa, started his speech by explaining the fighting axes and the importance of the Ukrainian cities, saying: “Russia attacked through four strategic axes according to a tightly laid military plan, the first axis from the far north of Ukraine from the borders of Belarus, and this led to the encirclement of the capital Kyiv and contributed to the assistance in conducting landing operations. This led to the forces advancing in steady steps towards encircling the Ukrainian capital."

 As for the second axis, according to Mustafa, it is “the northeastern part of the country, and it is the vital axis through which the Russian forces besieged a large city like Kharkiv, which is the second largest strategic city. This siege contributed to creating safe corridors through which the Russian forces could move between the entrances of Kharkiv to the capital, Kyiv.”

 As for the third axis, according to Mustafa, it was from “the eastern side, especially from the Donbas region, which includes the two independent republics. There is the Chernobyl reactor and the largest water plant in Europe, and also includes the largest strategic coal store in the world. The Donbass region was the largest area for heavy industries before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and this axis is very important.”  Through it, the Russian army was able to deliver supplies to the separatists in the region, who are constantly advancing towards the north of Ukraine.

 As for the fourth and final axis, it is the “southern axis extending north from the Crimea to the areas on the Dnieper River, foremost of which, of course, is the city of Kherson, which has come under the control of the Russian forces, and the city of Kherson has a strategic location on the Ukrainian and European map because it has the largest area for building and manufacturing ships in the entire eastern region, which also includes the only line that supplies the Crimea with potable and arable water, is the most important region in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Mustafa added: "To this moment, hit-and-run operations continue from one city to another, even to the most important strategic city that Russia seeks to control in the coming days, which is the city of Odessa. This progress enabled the Russian forces across the four axes to cut off all naval supplies to the Ukrainian army in the south after tightening the grip on all the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov and all of these four axes aims to impose an iron cordon on the capital Kyiv, paralyze and exhaust the Ukrainian forces, cut off supplies and open safe corridors and crossings from which Russia will send supplies during the storming of the capital Kyiv.

 Russia's goals

 Regarding the objectives of the Russian military move in Ukraine, Mustafa said: "Russia's goals before (the invasion) differ from its goals after (the invasion), before (the invasion) it had two important demands, which are Ukraine's neutrality and the removal of weapons from the Ukrainian-Russian borders because there were rockets platforms, heavy military equipment, and nearly 80,000 soldiers stationed on the Ukrainian-Russian border were causing concern for Moscow, according to the Russian President.

 As for its goals after that, Mustafa said: "The matter is completely different. Russia currently wants full control over the Ukrainian lands, changing the government and appointing a pro-Russian government. The division of Ukraine has become among the Russian priorities at this stage and also wants Ukraine to recognize the Crimea, which  occupied it in 2014.

 Not strong care for negotiation and decisiveness may turn the tables

 On the negotiation process, Mustafa said: "Any war in the world ends either with decisiveness or negotiation or with decisiveness and negotiation at the same time, until this moment matters have not been resolved in Ukraine. Secondly, the negotiation process is the only solution at this stage to end this problem, but negotiation is under the auspices of the Belarus state  what Ukraine fears in the first place will not work, the negotiation must be at a very high level, it must be under the umbrella of the United Nations and even members of Russia, the United States of America and part of the European Union participate in it, and the negotiation is under international auspices. The conditions of each party are discussed before entering the  negotiations, but the ongoing negotiations are that the Ukrainian negotiators go to the negotiation and have difficult instructions from the American side to reject all the Russian conditions and Russia is specified in the special negotiating terms."

 He added: "Until this moment, all negotiation tracks have failed. The negotiation process will take a long time, and most of the discussions and deliberations could lead to failure. The settlement process until this moment is the only process that may turn the table in front of everyone, and there is nothing left of the important strategic cities except Kyiv." If the Russian forces take control of it, I think it will be the beginning of a long and decisive negotiation process, and I think that America at this time can tell the Ukrainian president to sit at the negotiating table and save yourself and what is left of your people."

Russia is ready for sanctions

 On the subject of the sanctions on Russia, Mustafa said: "The West is tense because the issue of fighting with Russia is a very difficult issue, and therefore we have witnessed a torrent of sanctions issued by the United Nations, the European Union and the countries of the world. Every hour there are new sanctions, the only remaining sanctions are  Washinton is trying to issue sanctions for the air the Russians breathe."

 He explained, "Since 2014, Russia has established a specialized financial system in preparation for its exit from the global SWIFT system, China has also established the same parallel financial system, and Russia hopes that it will not exit the global financial system because it still considers itself an essential partner for all European Union countries, but Biden knows full well that  If Russia gets out of the global Swift platform, it will fall into the arms of the Chinese dragon, and therefore they will constitute a major financial power that could eliminate the dominance of the dollar during the next stage. Therefore, Biden does not want to completely remove Russia from this system.”

 The confrontation will be difficult

 On the outbreak of the confrontation between the two parties, Mustafa considered that “the confrontation will be difficult, but the beginning of the confrontation if the European Union officially accepts Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it will be the first spark for the outbreak of the confrontation, and if the United States of America, Britain or the European Union countries send soldiers on  the land to confront Russia within the Ukrainian borders, I think it will be the first start or the first spark for the beginning of World War III and I know fully that the American administration, the European Union and Britain do not seek direct confrontation with Russia within the Ukrainian borders, but unfortunately Ukraine fell into a trap or some kind of little mouse  among the great giants.

 He added, "The Ukrainian president did not fully realize that Ukraine was overthrown into the unknown because of his attachment to the US administration, and the reason is the delusion that he is currently living inside his hideout in Ukraine."

 Turkey plays on the middle of the rope

 Regarding Turkey’s position, Mustafa saw that it “always plays on the rope from the middle, always holds things from the middle, as it is not with or against, it is with its personal interests.  There was something in secret, and it was wholeheartedly against the United States of America, but he did not appear and will not show its loyalty, and he is wholeheartedly with the Russian regime.

 He added: "Turkey has already closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits in the face of Russia so that Russian ships do not cross into the Ukrainian lands, and this is what we and the whole world understood, but the true meaning or the real reason for closing the straits is not only in the face of Russian warships, but in the face of all global warships .However, at the Russian level, closing the two straits will not affect Russia at all, because all Russian equipment and missiles are all present, whether on the Russian-Ukrainian border or inside Ukrainian territory.”

 And he added, "So the Turkish behavior is apparently in the interest of the world, the interest of the coalition countries and the interest of Ukraine as well, but in secret it is in the interest of Russia by one million percent, but Erdogan has always promised us that he seeks his personal interests only, even if he does not have a personal interest between him and the Russian administration."  He would not have taken this action, because in the beginning he refused to close the two straits, and I think that there were consultations between him and the Russian in secret, consultations that no one knows about, and therefore I think based on that I issued a statement closing the two straits, and closing the straits until this moment is in Russia's interest and not against it.  ".

 How will the world be affected?

 Regarding the world’s impact on these developments, Mustafa said: “Indeed, the entire region will be affected by this war, and if the war lasts for a long time, the impact will increase in a terrifying way, because Russia has contracts in the field of oil and energy with Libya, with Saudi Arabia, even Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, and it has some large investment projects in  Many African countries and the major industrial zone that will build and establish east of the Suez Canal in Egypt, and there are arms deals that were concluded with many Arab countries that wanted to diversify the sources of arms during the last stage so that the dominance of American weapons would not continue to dominate the Middle East, as the absence of Russia  In the Arab region, it will have a profound impact on the Arab economy."

 He added: "As for Ukraine, it is considered the first food basket in the world, and it is the first source of wheat, and if some Arab countries do not have sufficient stocks, they will be affected within several months if this problem is not resolved through a military or military settlement on the entire territory of Ukraine."  or through negotiations.

 Developments are heading towards escalation, with the Syrian and Afghani scenes coming to the fore

 Regarding the course of events, Mustafa considered that "developments are heading towards escalation. Russia will not leave Ukraine except in one case, which is to completely neutralize the Ukrainian administration."

 He added, "Among the expected scenarios is the formation of the International Legion. Currently, the Ukrainian diplomatic missions receive hundreds of calls daily from Islamist militants, and this is what the United States of America and Britain wanted. Here in Britain, about 30,000 militants hold British citizenship. No one imagines that Europe and America  Britain will send their white-skinned sons and nationals, but they will send the extremist Islamists who have caused panic in the world, even at the European level.  More than ten years, and the Syrian scene, for example, or the Afghan scene will be repeated in the event of a street war and the presence of mercenaries that the United States of America aspires to, but the scenario of negotiations is still the clearest and closest to the truth, but there must be an international umbrella to sponsor these negotiations until they reach  to the desired result.

 He added: "Britain cannot send troops to participate in the war in Ukraine for two important reasons. The first reason is that Britain is outside the European Union system, and the second reason is that the British administration does not want to enter into a direct confrontation with Russia inside Ukraine. In the past two days, there were some statements by the British Foreign Secretary urging some citizens  The British to participate in the international legion called for by the Ukrainian president, but the Ministry of Defense decided this matter by the Minister of Defense and the leaders of the main branches of the Ministry of Defense and said that we will not send any soldiers.”

 He continued: "But it is possible that some hard-line Britons who hold British passports and accept the invitation of the Ukrainian president and participate in the war, the chaos that will sweep Ukraine in the event of the formation of the international legion, which is expected to include some radical Muslims, Arabs of Ukraine and Muslims in Eastern Europe, if it is done.  Indeed, this will prolong the war for a period that no one knows."

 Birth of a new world order

 The researcher and expert on international issues, Khaled Mustafa, concluded his speech by saying: "This war may be a reason for the birth of a new world order because the world is witnessing an important transformation these days and everyone has become aware that the American empire is no longer the only player on the international scene now, the existing war  Currently, the cycle on the Ukrainian territory is considered a historical moment and a watershed moment in the history of mankind at the world level, and it is possible that this war, in a real way, is a strong reason for the birth of a new world order.”

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