Foreign, Arab researchers assesses intl, regional and Arab events

2021 year witnessed many events, in this context ANHA’s agency interviewed with several researchers of the Arab and foreign those who evaluate the events in this year.

Globally, the highlight of 2021 was the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the escalation of American tensions with China. (in Taiwan) and Russia (in Ukraine) after this withdrawal, but both Beijing (with its economy) and Moscow (with its weapons) have not stood idly by about current American politics, are seeking a multipolar world, and a new world order is in the process of being formed, in which the three States are striving. (US, Russia, China) to adopt new strategies in the Middle East.

In this context, the senior researcher at the American NEW LINES Institute, Nicholas Harras, argues that China and Russia have clear goals that challenge the United States globally.

For now, Russia relies on military force, while China focuses on trade and diplomacy, according to Harras.

He adds" there is a multipolar international system, but US still preserves its ability to be stationed in several parts of the world, including Asia and Europe, where it can pose a major challenge to its strategic competitors".

Harras asserts that in the Middle East, China is playing a game of a long breath, cautiously focused on trade and energy, while Russia is firmly active in a way that has not happened since the start of the Cold War.

According to Harras, the United States is trying to control its presence in the region and refocus on Asia and Europe, but "no other actor has the same influence as the United States has in the region."

United States is likely to be strongly present in the Middle East for a long time, in the context of global events and conflict between the great Powers.

Regionally, the conflict between Israel and Iran has raged, marked by mutual targeting of ships and Israeli targeting of the Iranian presence in Syria, at a time when international powers are negotiating with Iran to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement from which Trump withdrew and Israel's threats to target Iranian nuclear sites and its military preparations.

On his assessment of these events in 2021, will there be changes in the confrontation over the coming year? Will the nuclear agreement succeed after a major takeover of the rule in Iran, and will Israel carry out its threats to strike Iran? Lebanese writer and scholar Serkis Abu Zeid says: "The transition to 2022 is not just some days, it is a transition from one stage to another. In 2021 there were challenges, caution, fear and anticipation of military actions and challenges that could lead to major breakdowns, knowing that the beginning of 2022 would be the beginning of settlements or containment of crises in the region."

Abu Zeid adds: "An all-out military confrontation between Iran and Israel is unlikely. Wars are no longer a picnic, they have become major losses. States can no longer control the consequences. But the consequences of the wars have become devastating, costly and perhaps surprising, so despite the challenges, triviality and threats, I am ruling out an all-out military confrontation because of the cost and damage that will result. "

Abu Zeid is likely to see the year 2022 "the beginning of a settlement, understandings or possibly a containment of major crises, which will have a bearing on the conflict in the region, with the possibility of a comprehensive settlement that will stabilize without eliminating the existing competition between States."

With regard to the success of the nuclear agreement, Abu Zeid expects that "this is going to some sort of understanding, and at a minimum it is to contain or surround crises so that they do not go far and threaten a comprehensive military confrontation."

Abu Zeid adds: "The second level is a limited agreement, and the third level is a general settlement that may require more time and negotiations, in short, I would likely go to some kind of understanding on the nuclear subject."

The international relations scholar and Iranian policy specialist, Pro. Eyad Majali, said in the same context that "the tension in the political landscape that Tehran is leading at the meetings of the 4 + 1 Group in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear agreement has grown."

According to Majali, "The challenges facing the talks are deeply rooted in the form of the relationship between the United States and its ally Israel on the one hand and Tehran on the other, which makes it difficult to reach a consensus that would end the instability in the region."

He added, "Tehran, has been practicing, since the UN withdrew from the nuclear agreement in June 2018, the brinkmanship strategy. And has pushed European partners to maximum pressure, in hope of gaining a position in support of the agreement and protecting it from collapsing, which made the political leadership in Tehran announces its disengagement from the commitments of the agreement and withdrawal gradually and in steps that will then be able to raise the rate of uranium enrichment and increase the number of centrifuges in the facilities of Natanz Warak, This challenge made the international community, led by US, to return again, to the time of President Biden's assumption of his authority as President of United States, to start the ideas of returning Tehran to negotiating table again with a will to prevent Tehran from militarizing its nuclear program and adding the ballistic missile file to the negotiation file and empowering new regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, this American position is supported by Israel that places all obstacles in the way of reaching a nuclear agreement, because of the fear of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon.

Dr. Majali stressed that "the scene include many scenarios, most prominent one is the failure to reach an agreement, especially with the administration of Ebrahim Raisi, the leader of the hardline movement in Iranian political regime, who arrived at the Iranian government,  and since seven months Iranian newspapers have been circulating that there are Iranian demands that were conveyed to Vienna talks that make the Iranian position more stringent against United States, leading to lifting economic sanctions. On the other hand, the visit of Israeli Defense Minister to Washington sends symbolic messages that lead to Israel's readiness to launch military strikes targeting Iranian regime in a scenario of not reaching a nuclear agreement at the maximum speed.

As for Arab world, the battles have continued in more than one country (Syria, Yemen and Libya), and rivalry between Iraqi parties has continued, and a government has not been formed yet. And in Lebanon, the government is still unable to solve its problems, while Maghreb witnessed the fall of Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia and Morocco and Egypt strengthened its military capabilities, while UAE resorted to make relations with Iran and Turkey.  

In this context, the director of Arab Center for Research and Studies, Hani Suleyman, says that the state of uncertainty, as no peace - no war continued, some issues, such as Yemen, Syria, and Libya, continued to deteriorate. However, the degree and size of this crisis witnessed a significant decline, but it did not rise to the level of peace.

Secondly, the disappearance of political Islam movements, the previous years witnessed significant regressions of these movements, but 2021 confirmed their loss of remaining opportunities for them, especially in Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya, to join the organization in Egypt.

Thirdly- changes in the balance of power and movement of alliances, some countries have increased their military capabilities, such as Egypt. While other countries moved towards the path of expanding the capabilities of action and influence, such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Suleyman added: "The important phenomenon here is presence of movements in the path of worsening Arab relations after an agreement between Qatar and the Gulf states, and between Qatar and Egypt, in a way that establishes understandings in many Arab files, consolidating relations and heading east."

The relations witnessed opening of communication channels with Turkey and reformulation of its foreign policy with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, The emerge of the role of UAE and its understanding lines with Iran and Turkey, which paves the way for calm and the stability is expected in 2022, according to the director of Arab Center for Research and Studies, Hani Suleyman.

In Turkey, Ankara continued its military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya and prevented stability in these countries through its mercenary groups. With this intervention, the Turkish economy was collapsing. Will Turkey change its strategy next year? Will it follow the same policy with America and Russia??

In this context, the writer and researcher in Turkish affairs, Dr. Huda Rizq, says: "In the beginning, we have to separate the internal situation in Turkey and the Turkish expansion, except in one point, and that the expansion in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Africa comes at the expense of  Turkey internal treasury, Turkey pays the price for this expansion from Turkish money and taxes imposed on Turkish people, and this is what the Turkish opposition criticizes, in order to limit Erdogan’s actions, but the problem is that there is a large nationalist and Islamic movement that supports Erdogan, especially that the Ottoman problem is still dominant in the minds of some Turks , and see no harm in these interventions 

she added, " for pressure on Erdogan to change his policies, there is American pressure on Turkey to change its policy, and the European Union sees it expanding in many regions (Kara bakh and Mediterranean). France is also dissatisfied from Turkish expansion in Africa, France has influence in this region and sees Turkey as a competitor."  

Regarding Erdogan’s policy with Russian and American, the Lebanese researcher says, "The American position forced Turkish president to take a position, which is not to allow him to play on (Russian-American) contradictions. Therefore, today he has problems with Russia in Syria and Libya, as well as problems with United States, which is the expanding of Erdogan in Eastern Mediterranean and his intervention in Kara bakh, Therefore (the researcher) believed that this prevailing relationship (before Biden), i.e. playing on contradictions between Moscow and Washington, has become limited, and there is no longer room for play, because Washington has determined its next battles, and determined its enemies (China and Russia) and its position from him (Erdogan).

T\S- Sh-S

ANHA