Elections, deep arrangements.. Who rules, what is future of regime in Iran?

Smoldering developments.. what is future of regime in Iran?

Study centers and observers have worked during the period to try to extrapolate the future of the regime in Iran in light of the acceleration of developments: between the offensive statements among the pillars of the state and the escalating protests on the one hand, and talk about the deteriorating health of the Supreme Leader and the search for his successor on the other hand, things may go off track at any time.

Ongoing disagreements

With every situation, some indications of a disagreement within the pillars of the regime in Iran emerged into the open. The most prominent of these differences between the current President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the nuclear file.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani defended the nuclear agreement, which his country signed with international powers, and his open policy to the West, saying earlier that his "revolutionary" opponents were looking for their own interests, not the interests of the people.

Prior to that, the disputes between Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei escalated, which were like embers under the ashes.

A few years ago, Ahmadinejad accused the Supreme Leader of looting Iranians' money, estimating the wealth of institutions that are subject to Khamenei "without oversight" at the equivalent of about $190 billion, in an unexpected escalation of a dispute that has been kept secret between them.

Ahmadinejad wrote two messages published by the Dolat Bahar website, which is close to him, in which he said that the leader looted these funds through institutions that directly report to his office and are not subject to any oversight.

Disagreements within the regime's pillars have returned to the fore with the dispute between Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on the one hand and the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader on the other.

This dispute erupted after an audio recording of Zarif talking about several issues was leaked, most notably the broad role that Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guards, played in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic.

The New York Times, which said it had obtained a copy of the recording, cited some excerpts from it.

Zarif said, "In the Islamic Republic, it is the military field that rules (...) I sacrificed diplomacy for the sake of the military field, instead of serving the diplomatic field."

The newspaper also quoted him as saying that Soleimani worked closely with Russia to oppose the agreement on the nuclear program concluded between Tehran and the major powers in 2015, after difficult negotiations in which Zarif was the most prominent representative of Iran.

This sparked a state of controversy, disagreement and accusations among government officials in Iran.

On this, Hani Suleiman, an expert in Iranian affairs and Gulf studies, said: “Yes, there are differences, although the Iranian regime is interconnected over the totality of the revolution’s ideas to a large extent, but at the same time there are sub-details and differences between the different parties, such as conservatives, hardliners, and differences between Rouhani and Zarif and between the Supreme Leader and the Guard, especially with the statements of Foreign Minister Javad Zarif that his total contributions to foreign policy are weak and the Guard controls everything and Qassem Soleimani was managing matters and that the formation of the Foreign Ministry is dominated by the security character, and his contribution to foreign policy is weak.

He added: "There are differences between the regime itself and between the reformists and conservatives. This thing is very clear in more than one position in the past, and therefore the regime may appear to be one bloc, but it is cracked and fragile from the inside, especially in light of the growing internal conflicts, and this state of marginalization and exclusion, I think, will lead to more complication and divide the Iranian regime, especially that it is under pressure during this period.”

He explained, "Certainly, the killing of Qassem Soleimani is due to the pressures surrounding Iran, the pressure of the nuclear file by Israel, or the confrontations in Arab capitals. I think that this will greatly affect its policy."

He added: "This could have an impact on the results and context of the elections, because Soleimani's absence caused great confusion, because it was expected from my point of view that the presidential candidate would be the most fortunate, but his killing turned the table.”

How will the elections affect the country's policy?

On the impact of the elections on the country’s policies, Suleiman said: “For sure, the foreign policy will be affected by the position of the president and the presence of a president from the hardliners. It is expected that at the internal level, there will be more repression and closure of the public sphere, and that there will be priority for security files away from the economic file and improving the living situation.” Especially if there are no chances to restore the nuclear agreement, and therefore there will be more closures of public shops and this may lead to protests."

He added: "The regime will try to control the security situation and will persist in it, and this may cause problems for the Iranian regime. I think that the regime may fail to solve the economic file and the aspirations of the Iranian people in the coming period."

At the level of Iranian foreign policy, Suleiman said, “there will be interest in arming, investing in and supporting militias, and completing what Iran has started some time ago, and this will continue at the expense of the Iranian citizen, and most importantly is financing militias and groups loyal to Iran and achieving its policy away from supporting the Iranian citizen and internally directing expenditures greatly.

He added, "The relationship with some regional powers will be tense and subject to escalation, such as the United States of America, especially if negotiations to return to the nuclear agreement do not succeed. There are also some relations that will have problems, such as Israel in particular, and there will be many skirmishes and confrontations."

Talking about possible opportunities for dialogue between Iran and the Gulf, he said: "The presence of a president of the hardliners may undermine such efforts or re-escalate the confrontation with Saudi Arabia, especially in Yemen, and this will have very negative repercussions on instability in the region, and the regime will follow an arrogant and hostile tone to export the revolution leading to instability and more problems."

future of the regime?

Hani Suleiman tried to extrapolate the future of the Iranian regime, "It suffers from many problems. The future of the regime is at stake. It is a strong but fragile regime, meaning that it contains glitches that may blow it up at any time and may hasten its fall, but this fall is not expected at any time or anywhere, and the possibility exists, but it cannot be confirmed.”

He explained, "the regime is losing a lot and there is a state of decline in its capabilities and the ideological discourse that was convinced of it no longer exists. There is an attack on the sanctity of some positions such as the leader and the clergies, as well as coup against the constants and a rebellion against them, and this is dangerous for the Iranian regime."

He added: "The regime suffers from a generational crisis related to the fact that the first generations who experienced the revolution are in a state of decline, and the new generations are the ones who enjoy the same sufficient amount of ideological and revolutionary enthusiasm and belief in the principles of the revolution. There are new generations with different aspirations and they see the regime not applying the principles of the revolution, on the contrary, it oppresses the people, does not achieve justice, and does not achieve any of the goals that the Iranian citizen seeks, and therefore I see this as dangerous. The generational crisis and the difference in viewpoints and generations is a major threat to the regime and the Iranian revolution."

Who will succeed the Supreme Leader?

In addition to these problems and disagreements, there is a major challenge to the regime in Iran, which is the talk about the deteriorating health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his successors.

Iran International website quoted what a senior security official said earlier about reports regarding the physical condition of the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, and said that the leader's health is critical and that this could create a new situation in Iran.

Commenting on this, Suleiman said: "There is a major problem related to the position of the Supreme Leader in light of the deteriorating health condition of the Leader, given that at any time there may be a stage that requires reconsidering the issue of the Supreme Leader on the grounds that whether his authority will be reduced."

He added: "I think that this is difficult because the constitution stipulates it and the principles of the constitution will be shaken, but some reports talk about abolishing the position of the leader. It is at stake because there are no great convictions in the capabilities of some of the elements that exist now and the people themselves no longer hold to this same view that holds the qualitative sanctity of the Supreme Leader and the clergy, and these perceptions have become a thing of the past, and I see that this is dangerous for the Iranian regime.”

He pointed out that the regime in Iran, in light of Khamenei's deteriorating health, began making arrangements and talking about bringing his son Mojtaba Khamenei.

Where is the situation heading?

Regarding the course of events, Suleiman said: “If a nuclear agreement is not reached, I think that protests will increase and there will be a problem for the Iranian regime. It may accelerate the presence of some protests, but the regime collapses completely. I think that this is an issue that has possibilities, yes, but it is not certain, and the Iranian regime has different tools: including the official police or the regular army, there are riot police, the “Basij Forces”, the People’s Defense Forces, and the Revolutionary Guards, which carry out security tasks and succeeded during the recent period, and therefore the regime has its tools and capabilities of repression and may succeed in suppressing protests as happened in the past.

Hani Suleiman concluded, "However, every time there are new developments, the regime loses in the face of the people, and we may reach a point where the regime may not be able to cope with the situation, and there will be surprises, and I think we have to wait for a long time."

J.O

ANHA