AKP witnesses a state of disintegration since 2013

In its research on the status of the ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey, the Emirates Policy Center said that the party has been in a state of prolonged disintegration of its traditional social base since 2013, following the disengagement between it and the service movement led by Fethullah Gülen.

Large sectors of the conservative Turkish class began to turn away from the party, and then, in the summer of 2016, the "failed coup d'état attempt" deepened this disintegration after the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directed to deepen the alliance with the national movement within the framework of the "people's alliance," and this led to the rise of nationalist tendencies within the party and in the policies of the Turkish regime, in contrast to the withdrawal of historical leaders from AKP.

According to the research, and in the face of the dead end reached by the party organization for AKP, the Turkish president is trying to rapprochement with the Felicity Party, the official representative of the Necmettin Erbakan movement inside Turkey, and through this rapprochement Erdogan wants to restore momentum to the conservative base of the alliance by obtaining the support of the Felicity Party, cutting off the road for the "Democracy and Progress" (Diva) parties founded by Ali Babacan and the "Future" party founded by Ahmet Davutoğlu, in order not to benefit from the solid social base of the Erbakan movement in the upcoming elections.

The research found that this rapprochement, which Erdogan is betting on, to restore the "old spirit" of the ruling party and to strengthen the "people's alliance" faces many challenges, the most prominent of which is the rejection of a wide sector of the movement leaders - whether within the Felicity Party or in the Millî Görüş movement - of this alliance, and the success of the Party of Democracy and Progress "(Diva) led by former minister Ali Babacan in winning important sectors of the social base of the Erbakan movement, especially the independents.

On the implications of this rapprochement if it happens, the research said, "Erdogan regime’s orientation towards the confusion and its social bases will have potential repercussions on the internal political scene in Turkey, most notably the possibility of a deep split within the Felicity Party and Millî Görüş movement, which leads them to the dispersion of their social base, and the weakness that the people's alliance can suffer from.".

In addition, any actual rapprochement between Erdogan and Erbakan movement may lead to weakening the relationship between Erdogan and the leadership of the military institution due to the historical disagreement between the army and the Erbakan movement.

D.H