Weekly panorama: Ball is in Astana guarantors' court, international intentions to pin presence of mercenaries in Libya

During the past week, Arab newspapers discussed the Syrian situation, in addition to the crisis in Libya and Tunisia.

'A Russian-Western diplomatic clash over Syria'

To start with the Syrian issue, and in this regard, Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper talked about the failure of the UN Security Council to adopt a presidential statement on Syria, in the first Western-Russian confrontation since the US President John Biden taking office, and said: “The warnings of the UN envoy Geir Pedersen reinforced division. On the one hand, and the ball was transferred to the court of the "guarantors", Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, in Russian Sochi in the middle of next month, to save what is left of the political track, on the other hand.

After a closed session for the members of the Council, in which Pedersen delivered a presentation of the results of the fifth round of the "Constitutional Committee" in Geneva late last month and the representatives of the 15 countries presented their interventions, Tuesday night - Wednesday. During the British presidency this month, a draft presidential statement was presented.

And it stated that after Pedersen briefed “the members, following the first session of the mini-committee of the Constitutional Committee on January 29, of the latest developments,” it suggested that “the members welcomed the brief report and expressed their support for his efforts, and regretted that after ten months after launchin the committee, which is owned and led by Syria, the process of drafting constitutional reform has not yet begun, in accordance with Resolution 2254.

In the same context, diplomatic sources said that the draft did not win unanimity due to Russia and China’s objection to some phrases, especially with regard to the election clause and “welcoming” Pedersen’s brief, who came close to holding the “government-backed” delegation headed by Ahmed Al-Kuzbari responsible for nonprogress in the round. The fifth of the "constitutionality" in Geneva late last month, and the issue of fighting terrorism was also raised.

Pedersen had said after the closed session that “the divisions of the international community must be overcome,” and considered that there was “a necessity to adopt constructive international diplomacy on Syria. The discussion of the Syrian file is open, but after the "disappointment" of the "constitutional" meeting, it was decided to make it closed. Pedersen said that the fifth round was a "missed opportunity" and constituted "disappointment."

He explained, "Some suggested continuing to work using the same mechanism, while others demanded a complete change of the frequency and duration of meetings, and the setting of a timetable." He considered that there is a "lack of confidence and intent to settle as well as the political space available for making settlements."

And while Western countries were unanimous in denouncing the "failure" of the adopted political track and the failure of the commission to accomplish "within 18 months" due to the "procrastination" of Damascus, the Russian and Chinese sides noted the process and the need to support the committee despite its slowness.

'Mercenaries are out of the new Libyan government'

Regarding the Libyan issue, Al-Arab newspaper said: “The features of the coming period, which will be transitional in Libya, began to become clear gradually after the election of the transitional authority last Friday, which produced figures close to Ankara similar to the former Libyan ambassador to Greece who was expelled by Athens after the maritime border demarcation agreement was signed between Libya and Turkey; Mohamed Al-Manfi as Chairman of the Presidential Council, and Misratan businessman Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba as Head of the Interim Government.

In his first speech following his election as Head of the Interim Government, Al-Dabaiba avoided touching on the mercenaries and militias file, as he pledged on Saturday evening to “work to support the role of women and provide the opportunity for young people to contribute to building state institutions and providing them with blood and new competencies,” stressing that his government is "keen to fulfill its obligations," in an indication to the election due scheduled for December.

It seems that the intentions of the international parties that supported the Libyan factions are moving towards imposing the staying of mercenaries in the country torn by chaos, especially as Turkey rushed to promote that the new government does not oppose the Turkish military presence there, in addition to its support for Ankara's role.

Observers believe that the recent understandings that took place at the Libyan political dialogue forum and which culminated in the election of a new presidential council and an interim government will lead the transitional phase until the organization of general elections next December and will not end the foreign military interventions, so it will be forced to work within the mercenaries who the parties to the conflict called out for earlier.

The statements of the Turkish President's advisor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, regarding Ankara's role in Libya, reflected this desire to keep the mercenaries, who had not yet succeeded in the 5 + 5 Joint Military Committee in forcing the parties to start withdrawing them.

In the statements that did not surprise the observers, especially in light of the failure of the 5 + 5 Committee to implement the understandings that were reached, most notably the expulsion of mercenaries from Libya, Yassin Aktay, Advisor to the Turkish president, said, “The new Libyan government supports Ankara’s role in Libya, and is not opposed to the Turkish military presence in the country.”

Observers believe that the success of the political track set by the United Nations Support Mission to Libya remains dependent on the cessation of foreign interventions that deepened the differences among the Libyan factions.

However, the intentions of the parties that have significantly interfered in the crisis, such as Turkey, which brought thousands of mercenaries to Libya, raise doubts about the ability of the ceasefire agreement and the UN agenda to succeed.

 ‘Tunisians rise up against Brotherhood on the anniversary of Belaid's assassination’

On the Tunisian issue, Al Bayan newspaper said: “In light of a tight security blockade, Tunisians went out in a massive march, raising loud slogans denouncing the Brotherhood’s rule and the failure of the government and the political elite that has dominated the public scene in the country since ten years."

The security forces pushed massive reinforcements to close the streets in front of thousands of demonstrators on the occasion of the eighth anniversary of the assassination of the Leftist Opposition Leader Shokri Belaid, and the Tunisian General Union criticized what it described as the militarization of Habib Bourguiba Street in the center of the capital, and its Assistant Secretary-General Sami Al-Taheri said that the closure of the street is due to the horror of the rulers and those in the ruling coalition, in reference to the Renaissance Movement and its allies.

The Leader of the Democratic Bloc in Parliament, Mohamed Ammar, stated that he had contacted the Prime Minister Hisham Al-Mechishi, and had spoken to him about the issue of closing all roads leading to the capital at the level of the main streets.

Ammar said, “I have informed the Prime Minister of my condemnation of these dangerous practices, who said that he will communicate with the security units to find a solution to this,” noting that “it is unreasonable to close all outlets leading to the capital, close the main streets, disrupt the interests of citizens and even return to their homes."

The opposition forces criticized the government agencies' intention to prevent protesters from inside the country from joining the march called for by 66 organizations, parties and associations, including the Tunisian General Labor Union, in which a number of opposition and trade union leaderships participated.

A / D.H