Arab press: Turkish fears to re-take Damascus of Idlib, and moral, circumstantial Gulf reconciliation

On Wednesday, Arab newspapers discussed the situation in Idlib, in addition to the results of the Gulf summit, as well as the Libyan crisis.

'Turkish occupation anticipates Damascus' attempt to re-take Idlib

The beginning of the Syrian issue, and in this context Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper said: “Turkish forces continue their intensive movements in the (de-escalation) zone in northwestern Syria, extending from the north-eastern Lattakia mountains to the northwestern suburbs of the city of Aleppo, passing through the countryside of Hama and Idlib, between implementing withdrawals from the military points established under the de-escalation agreement in Astana and subsequent agreements between Turkey and Russia, and relocating to other areas, especially in Jabal al-Zawiya, south of Idlib.

It explained, "Currently, more than 12 thousand Turkish soldiers and more than 8 thousand military vehicles are deployed in 64 points in Idlib, especially in its southern countryside and limited areas in Hama, after their points were withdrawn from its north after they became besieged by (the regime forces), and expectations prevail that the military moves Turkey and the intensification of reinforcements over the past three months is due to Turkey's attempt to prevent a major military operation (of the regime) with the support of Russia targeting Idlib, the last stronghold of (the opposition.

According to the newspaper, "Turkey has strengthened its forces' presence in Jabal al-Zawiya region, and established about 20 military points on the front line between the regime and opposition forces during the past two months, in an effort to make them an obstacle to any possible movement of the regime forces."

'Moral Gulf reconciliation'

Regarding the results of the Gulf summit, Al-Arab newspaper said: “The Gulf summit was satisfied with the affirmation of solidarity and stability in the Gulf, and a complete return to diplomatic relations between the Quartet of the boycott and Qatar.

The closing statement of the summit, delivered by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, released a set of general provisions on "non-interference in internal affairs" and commitment to "strengthening cooperation in combating terrorist entities, currents and organizations", and "jointly addressing any threats to Gulf security." But without indicating any direct obligations from any party to implement them.

Saudi media reported, in detail, the reception, meetings and the tour between the Crown Prince and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, to confirm that the relationship between the two countries has entered a new phase.

Absent from the summit statement, any reference to the demands of the boycotting countries and how Qatar is committed to implementing them, while reference was made to Egypt incidentally.

Follow-up Gulf circles said that the summit aimed to achieve a moral reconciliation rather than a political one that would take place after discussing the causes of the crisis and the way out, and identifying the elements of the concessions and the party that is supposed to start the first step.

These circles did not rule out that the goal of the summit was to achieve "circumstantial and rapid reconciliation" linked to the challenges faced by the administration of the new US President Joe Biden, amid talk that what is important in the Gulf region is to dispel fears of the coming pressures, provided that this reconciliation will then be developed in detail. And it takes the sufficient time to allow the various parties to balance their positions according to their accounts and relationships.

Observers say that the moral authority of Saudi Arabia and King Salman has contributed to the summit taking its collective aftermath, which is a method that, although it is able to alleviate the obstacles facing the Gulf meeting, does not guarantee that the solution will be permanent and comprehensive. The Gulf will wait after the summit to know the truth about what was agreed on regarding reconciliation, and whether the matter was based on personal pledges from leaders and notables or whether an agreement was reached that remains secret to not embarrass any party regarding concessions and mutual guarantees, such as what happened with the Riyadh agreement in 2013 and 2014, Where the documents, which were signed between the various parties, appeared in the midst of the boycott crisis.

Observers say that the Qataris may accept to some extent curb the reign of Al-Jazeera, and they may make Doha a less welcoming place for the Muslim Brotherhood, but beyond that they are unlikely to accept its discussion, which may raise the concerns of the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, and could open the door to the return of the crisis. The Gulf Arab states quickly reached the tension that prevailed for more than three years.

The challenge for the Saudis will be to extract enough concessions from both sides in order to show that everyone is ready to enter into a meaningful dialogue.

Observers of the Gulf affairs believe that the silence that accompanied the summit on the issue of Qatari concessions cannot be evidence that the boycotting countries, including Saudi Arabia, have accepted a loose settlement from which Qatar comes out without providing any guarantees, which is not accepted by countries such as Egypt that Dealing with this ambiguity is very embarrassing.

Cairo did not present a clear position on the substance of the Gulf summit, contenting itself with loose phrases and statements that appear positive, but its final meaning varies according to the political vision, and suggests keenness to ensure that the reconciliation is comprehensive for the four countries, and takes into account their demands, and not a bilateral reconciliation.

Egyptian sources said that Cairo deals with the file of reconciliation with Qatar in a "very complex diplomatic way, which hides more than what is hidden, and for regional and international considerations, it has taken a timid supportive stance, for fear of being accused of standing against reconciliation."

The participation of Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in the summit expressed this meaning, after previous leaks that went as far as not ruling out President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's attendance at the Gulf summit, which came in support of a number of statements in which Cairo seemed closer to holding the political stick in the middle of it, “No acceptance Clear and no categorical rejection.

Al-Arab learned that until the morning of the summit, the presence of the Egyptian Foreign Minister, or any other high-ranking official, had not been resolved, and the position changed at the last minute, to avoid the accusation that Egypt stands against a reconciliation that knows more than others that it will not change much in the Qatari behavior.

'Libya...the deployment of international observers is part of the Geneva Accord outcomes'

Regarding the Libyan issue, Al-Bayan newspaper said: "An informed Libyan military source confirmed that the National Army Command does not object to the deployment of international observers under the umbrella of the United Nations to monitor the ceasefire agreement, and considers it an important part of the outcomes of the Geneva Agreement concluded last October."

The source said that the issue is not related to a new proposal, as much as it is a prior agreement that was stipulated in the JMC agreement (5 + 5), where he indicated that the joint committee agreed on monitoring readiness measures, including international observers.

Yesterday, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, recommended the deployment of international observers in Libya under the umbrella of the United Nations to monitor the ceasefire agreement. In an interim report to the Security Council on the proposed arrangements for monitoring the ceasefire, he stated that an advance team should be sent to the capital, Tripoli, as a step. The first is to provide the foundations for a UN ceasefire monitoring mechanism, based in Sirte, to provide the basis for the UN monitoring of the ceasefire in a scalable manner.

T/S

ANHA