​​​​​​​Years of intervention in Syria ... What Russia achieves

Russia intervened militarily in the Syrian crisis at the end of September 2015, which had started years earlier.

The Russian intervention came after a visit by the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard at the time, Qassem Soleimani, during which he was able to convince Russia's Putin and his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu that the intervention became necessary as the Damascus government was receiving painful blows from the armed groups in the country.

At that time, Russia was experiencing a phase of violent clash with the West over the situation in the Crimean Peninsula, and as a result, the West imposed harsh economic sanctions that exhausted its economy. It also felt that it was deceived by the West in Libya, in which the Muammar Gaddafi regime was overthrown.

Results of the Russian intervention

With the beginning of the Russian military intervention in Syria, its mission was to preserve the so-called beneficial Syria, and despite the great military support of the Damascus government, it was unable to achieve great progress due to the generous support of Turkey, Qatar, and Britain and America behind them for the armed groups.

But Russia was able to end the so-called "Syrian opposition and the armed groups affiliated with it," after the conclusion of an agreement called de-escalation during the fourth round of Astana meetings with Turkey and Iran in May of 2017.

Russia has partially succeeded in transferring the Syrian file from the hands of the United Nations and the Geneva decisions to the Astana Pact (Russia - Turkey - Iran).

This resulted in the expansion of the Damascus government’s control in the country, while the mercenary groups affiliated with Turkey withdrew from vast areas.

The armed groups affiliated with Turkey have also turned into mercenaries for the latter  to occupy the areas of Syria such as Jarablus, Al-Bab, Afrin, Serêkaniyê and Girê Spi, in addition to Libya and Azerbaijan now.

Has Russia achieved what it wanted?

Despite the great Russian military and political support for the Damascus government and great control over the field, the Russian gains were unsatisfactory for several reasons.

With the expansion of the control of the Damascus government, Western political and economic pressure on it and on its backers (Russia and Iran) increased. According to observers, Russia has become unable to dispose of its military success politically, as it needs international recognition of the Damascus government, and it cannot start its investment and reconstruction projects because of Economic sanctions, especially after the Caesar Act came in force in June 2020.

On the other hand, Russia has entered into a war of competition with the allies of necessity (Turkey and Iran) on the Syrian arena.

What did the Russians gain?

During the years of Russian intervention, Russia enabled Turkey to occupy many Syrian regions, and it also allowed Iran to expand.

Russia has also put its hand on all vital Syrian facilities at a time, Syrians are experiencing a suffocating economic crisis.

What is the fate of the Russian presence?

Now, on the fifth anniversary of the Russian intervention, Moscow is seeking to arrange its cards in its areas of influence, by banishing Iran, stopping the Turkish intervention, and trying to restore the crumbling structure of the Damascus government.

According to observers, Russia is now forced to negotiate with the West, especially the United States of America, to solve the Syrian crisis, which during a previous period sought to unilaterally do so.

(A)

ANHA