Syrian analyst: No Turkish-Russian dispute, next stage is most dangerous

 Regime forces controlled under Russian support Maart Al Numan in Idlib countryside, it is preparing for an offensive on Aleppo countryside following Turkish- Russian meetings that announced a truce that didn’t last long.

Despite the escalation in statements between the two countries, it is said there is a deal between them on Syria, and about that, the Syrian analyst and opponent Ghaith Naissa, spoke to  Hawar News Agency.

'There is no deep difference between Russia and Turkey

 Naissa started his speech by commenting on the recent Russian-Turkish statements,: 'I do not think that there is a deep disagreement between Russia and Turkey. Regarding Idlib, as long as the Turkish state interest has not been touched. Turkey occupied Afrin and other areas of Syria with a green light from both Russia and America ".

"Turkey has been carrying out a process taking over the Syrian territory for three years, with the blessing of the two countries. Turkey has more than 12 checkpoints in and around Idlib province that contain troops," he said

Therefore, the advance of regime forces and its allies in their current attack on Idlib and Aleppo countryside  did not affect the Turkish army presence at these checkpoints. Therefore, the Turkish regime is not a loser in its swaps with both Russia and America."

"The regime is interested in keeping theTurkish threat  the Autonomous Administration areas

 Concerning the consequences of that on the northeastern of Syria areas Naissa said "On the other hand, the regime, contrary to  what it claims in its media, is interested in keeping the Turkish threat on the Autonomous Administration areas because, this project weakens and pushes the Autonomous Administration to make more concessions  ."

"The Syrian regime believes that in the worst case, if it did not make an agreement with the Autonomous Administration, it will not hesitate to attack in a joint operation the areas of northeastern Syria in coordination with the Turkish regime," he said.

"The point I would like to focus on is, with regard to the Autonomous Administration project in northeastern Syria, all the involved parties in Syria conflict are hostile to this project, in one way or another," he said.

Erdogan and the Syrian regime are explicitly hostile towards that, the first one is cautious because of his current situation and focus on Idlib battles, Erdogan is rude and obviously aggressive towards the Autonomous Administration and the Kurdish people."

"On the other hand, America is not in favor of the political aspect of the Autonomous Administration, It rather hates  such a model of a liberal political and social nature. It is interested in dealing with the military aspect (SDF), because in its opinion, it saves its lives, stay in the oil regions and ensure continuity of its role as a key player in determining Syria's future at the lowest cost, as well as restricting Iranian influence in the region."

"Russia is interested in expanding the regime control, Turkey sacrificed its mercenaries

As for Russia's position, Naissa said: "What it is interested in, is expanding the Syrian regime control, which it sponsors, the expending the deployment of its bases and forces all over the Syrian geography in particular. The Turkish last October invasion and occupation of more Syrian territory provided a golden opportunity for the regime and Russia; they entered areas in northeastern Syria  

As for Turkey's position on Idlib attacks, Erdogan's regime sacrificed his jihadist factions in Idlib to Russia and the regime, for making greater concessions in his interventions in northeastern Syria in return, from the latter.

'The next phase will be the most dangerous and harshest on the Autonomous Administration'

Concerning the rapprochement goals between Russia, Turkey and the regime, Naissa says "From my point of view, I think  that Autonomous Administration in the North and East of Syria is in the eye of the storm from the regime and its allies, Russia, Turkey. America is only concerned about its interests are not under threat," he said.

 "This blockade and ongoing attacks from Turkey and its mercenaries, and later from the regime and its allies, will increase the siege,restrictions and difficulties on the administration project. The enemies of the Autonomous Administration project hope that this will aggravate its repercussions internally,  either by attacking the Autonomous Administration or bringing her under control at least." 

The Syrian analyst and opponent tried to predict the future of the events, : "The coming period will be the most severe and dangerous phase for the Autonomous Administration. It requires a clear strategy based on evaluating the previous stage and getting lessons from it, correcting the committed mistakes , putting people at the heart of "The project, and getting support from all Syrians for this project as the most credible and the best for the future of our country."

 "Putting people's concerns and interests, and their rise in an orderly and conscious manner to capture the crucial issues that worry them, are a condition of being able to face these great challenges, defeat them, and to achieve victory."

A.J

ANHA