Syrian South arriving to al-Tanaf  ... Battle is rivaled by settlement winds

YEHYA AL-HABIB / NEWS DESK

During this period, attention is directed towards the Syrian south with finishing the battles on the fronts in the surrounding of Damascus by the regime and restoring the areas that were out of its control within the agreements of deporting the mercenaries that were called the opposition to the north, in addition to displacing the population.

The strategic importance of the South

The Syrian south has a dual and significant importance to all the parties present in the Syrian arena. For the Syrian regime, Nassib border crossing point with Jordan is the economic lifeline, and it is considered an entrance to arrange its regional state if it could formally declare its control on it.

As for Iran, the importance of the south of Syria is very important. The south which is included in the de-escalation agreement included taking out the Iranian forces at different distances whether on the Jordanian border or on the border with Israel. Observers also have said over the past few days that the Russians are trying to take away the fighters associated with Iran from the mentioned area

The Syrian south, for Iran, is considered strategic because it can use Israel's paper for the international pressure, and then, impose its agenda on the area.

The Syrian south also includes al-Tanaf area which combines borders with Jordan and Iraq, and seeks to impose its control over it to create a vast area in the Syrian Badia that would guarantee for it the freedom of movement from south to east in the area extended in al-Sham Badia which is considered one of the biggest areas in Syria and connects the borders of the country from Homs to Lebanon and from Homs to the borders of Iraq.

Iran is working hard to empty the Syrian south of any opposition presence to complete insuring the link with the Iraqi border which heads towards the south in al-Tanaf and towards the east by Deir-ez-Zor.

For Israel and its allies Russia and America, this area is considered important and must be kept away from the control of Iran and Hezbollah for its overlooking to Israel, and therefore, the Iranian concentration there means a direct threat to it and its security.

De-escalation agreement to in the south

The United States, Russia and Jordan agreed on the cease-fire and the de-escalation in southwest of Syria on July 9, 2017 during the meeting that gathered the US President Donald Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit held in Hamburg in Germany.

This agreement calls for preventing the Iranian-backed forces from the strategic expansion in the Syrian territories, specifically along the borders of Israel and Jordan.

Foreign Policy magazine mentioned at that time that the memorandum of understanding signed on the de-escalation areas in southern of Syria establishes the cease-fire between Syrian government forces and armed opposition factions.

It includes the transformation of the areas south of al-Quneitera and al-Swaida into a closed line beside the non-Syrian fighters including the Iranian military personnel and their supporters, and the fighters linked to al-Qaeda and IS mercenaries.

The viewers considered the truce agreement as a positive step and the comprehension of the idea of that there could not be a change or solution in Syria away from the cooperation between Washington and Moscow.

They considered the United States to be the winner because on the one hand, it would prevent the Iranian-backed forces from expanding strategically in the Syrian territories, specifically along the borders of Israel and Jordan, and on the other hand, it makes the Americans in the same row, even relatively, with the Russians that are stick to the cards in the Syrian file even if it was limited to the Iranian role.

The American thinking at the time was being established basing on creating isolated zones that would reduce Iranian influence in Syria. Washington realizes that Iran has infiltrated into Syria during Obama era, and that it is difficult to get it out, but it is possible to cut its land connection with the Syrian regime, as well as taking it away from the borders of Jordan and Israel.

Similarly, the agreement serves the Russians because it strengthens their credentials in Syria and the area as the agreement welcomes Jordan and Israel and weakens the Iranian influence in Syria in their favor.

The US-Russian agreement satisfies Jordan's desire for no existence of militias that would seek to destabilize the security on its borders and the same applies to Israel.

Al-Tanaf.. A desert geography rich in regional and international attraction

In the light of the talk and the great importance given by Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran to the south of Syria, their eyes are heading towards al-Tanaf area.

During 2017, the Syrian al-Badia has turned into an arena of international and regional conflict, especially between the United States of America, Russia and Iran.

As the base of the International Alliance in al-Tanaf is located within the military pocket of a circle of 55 kilometers, and the Pentagon banned to approach it under the threat of destruction.

Al-Tanaf area is of paramount importance as it combines the borders of countries such as Syria, Iraq and Jordan. However, these borders, for al-Assad's allies in Tehran, have a different importance.

Al-Tanaf, by Iranian eyes .. A corridor to the Mediterranean

Tehran considers al-Tanaf crossing as a corridor for military and ideological goods as al-Tanaf is considered for it as a way to transfer weapons from its territories through Iraq, to ​​Syria and Lebanon, and to other countries.

Tehran deals with al-Tanaf as a vital point of importance to the Mediterranean Sea, especially since the Syrian regime had agreements with it, some of which gave Tehran the right to explore and invest in Syrian phosphate in Homs area. A group of railways that connect Homs Badiya to its city and it also speeded to establish a new railway between the port of Tartous on the Mediterranean Sea, and the area of ​​Homs’s Phosphate. It was said that this is to accelerate the movement between the two areas. However, the link between Homs’ Phosphate and the Mediterranean port of Tartous can be used in more than one domain providing Iran with the military transport line and its associated extension.

The Russian position on al-Tanaf has long been negotiated

Moscow considers al-Tanaf base as suspicious, as the Russian Defense Ministry accused in a statement last October al-Qaeda of playing a suspicious role in Syria.

On the suspicion of Russia from the base of al-Tanaf, observers believe that America considers the base as an important point to threaten the land route of the forces of Iran's towards Damascus, and to a lesser extent, to threaten Russian interests in al-Badia, and it may be used as a bargaining chip in the final solution in Syria.

The bombardment of the coalition forces led by Washington against the Syrian regime’s forces that took place close to the al-Tanaf crossing was condemned by Russia\ through official statements, while Washington's warning to the regime not to approach al-Tanaf area was understood as the beginning of a possible agreement with the Russians to determine a safe area in the south of Syria.

Beside the complex regional and international conflict of interests that Syria is witnessing, it appears that the reality imposed by the international war on IS mercenaries which resulted in the control of the regime and the forces loyal to Iran on the Syrian Badia would not be final, and al-Tanaf’s base would have an important role in determining who will control the Syrian Badia in the future.

In spite of that a great battle is about to be erupted in the Syrian south, the Syrian regime is getting ready to carry out it within the strategy to re-control on the largest area of the ​Syrian territories, especially after it has controlled on al-Ghouta in Damascus and Duma and later in Yarmouk camp against IS, But there are many serious threats about this anticipated battle.

The regime, with Russian support, is mobilizing its forces without clear prospects.

Russia is aware of the concerns of the opening of the Syrian south front and its impact on its relations with America, Israel and Jordan, so long ago, in cooperation with the forces of the Syrian regime, exerted pressure on the factions and the people of southern Syria to achieve reconciliation with the regime.

However, the scenario of starting the battle of the South of Syria remains a scenario, given the complex calculations of the players in the area. Jordan is the party most affected by these battles in the event of their occurrence, due to security reasons associated with the consequences of the emergence of more chaos on its borders, in addition to possibilities of displacement which is no longer borne by Jordan within an escalating economic crisis and a real inability to carry out the burden of refugees since the beginning of the Syrian crisis.

There is no doubt that there is a high level of Jordanian readiness to deal with any developments in the event of the battle of the south. However, all the post-battle scenarios, if signed, will impose new burdens on Jordan, which requires opening the door again to discuss options for Syrian asylum in the way of Turkey, Lebanon and Europe.

Syrian south; settlement winds seem closer to battle

In this context, writer Farah Merka pointed out that the hour of decisiveness seems to be decreasing in the south of Syria, while the Jordanian capital Amman is watching. Although the Syrian embassy in Amman, Ayman Alloush, said on Saturday night that his government "may not have to fight" In the area, praising the Jordanian role in it, but the United States is fully preparing its capabilities in the south, while withdrawing Iranian or Iranian forces, as Israel is prepared, and the Syrian army warns, and armed groups.

All parties are alarmed, and the absence of the Iranian presence has made no real difference in Israeli monitoring or American reactions, and the news from the south increases the likelihood of the battle and seeks it, although in that region it is more like dancing on ropes, which are still at high levels despite the Iranians' withdrawal from the scene in the south practically.

A potential threat to the region as soon as a battle is launched against the US threat to take "tough" measures against Damascus in the event of a violation of the cease-fire, the day after the regime threw leaflets over the southern province of Daraa, warning of an impending military operation.

The more dangerous aspect is the Israeli preparations, whether they can be carried out by Israelis or even by Israeli-backed agents in the Syrian south, which is no longer concealed by Israeli officials, which could constitute an insurmountable front against the Syrian army.

To avoid all this, a "peaceful approach" may be more beneficial to all, which the Syrian regime has begun to show its will through leaflets in Daraa bearing the image of dead fighters with the comment "Do not be like these. This is the inevitable end for anyone who insists on continuing to bear arms ... Let the weapons go before it is too late. "The leaflets went to the people of Daraa calling on them to join the army in" expelling the terrorists. " And signed on behalf of the "General Command of the Army and Armed Forces".

Publications in this sense are trying to neutralize what is known as the tribal army, in a way that ensures the transition to the second node of the American base in Al-Tanf.

In any case, the winds of settlement appear stronger than the battle, although no guarantees for anyone to win the settlements in an area as complex in the South.

T/S, D.H

ANHA