Will the war expand after the assassination of Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri?

The year 2024 began and the Gaza war and its repercussions on the region continued, and in Lebanon, the second day of the year witnessed a major security event that opened eyes again to the danger of escalation in the region, which was the assassination of the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, Saleh Al-Arouri, and his companions, as a result of an Israeli strike with a UAV on the Southern suburb.

Although Israel did not acknowledge the incident, an American official revealed to Agence France-Presse, requesting that his name not be mentioned, that Israel was the one that carried out the raid that led to Al-Arouri’s assassination.

Israel had vowed, through Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to target all Hamas leaders after the attack carried out by the movement on October 7.

The Al-Arouri assassination incident was met with a series of reactions, including Lebanon submitting a complaint to the United Nations Security Council, stating that “the Israeli attack represents the most dangerous chapter in the series of attacks. It constitutes the first escalation of its kind since 2006, as it affected a very crowded residential area in the suburb of the capital, Beirut, also represents a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a matter of concern because it may lead to an expansion of the conflict and destabilize regional peace and security.”

Hezbollah threatens: Al-Arouri’s assassination will not remain without a response

On the Lebanese front, the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in his speech on the fourth anniversary of the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, considered that the response in the suitable time in the war with Israel, explaining that if Israel thinks about waging a war against Lebanon, the fighting will be without a ceiling or a ceiling, rules or limits, stressing that “the response will inevitably come.”

Arab and international warnings

Arab condemnations began in Gaza, where the Palestinian Foreign Ministry considered Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri "a dangerous escalation that shows its failure in the Gaza war."

Egypt, in its turn, informed the Israeli government of freezing its participation in mediation between Israel and the Palestinian factions, while in Jordan, Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi affirmed that “igniting the West Bank and Lebanon is the goal of the extremist agenda of the Israeli government, which continues to destroy Gaza to prolong the life of its political leadership and drag the West into a regional war.” ".

As for Western positions, the US State Department expressed its concern about the possibility of the conflict in Gaza spreading to other fronts after Al-Arouri’s killing.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that he could not give an assessment of who carried out the attack, describing Al-Arouri as a "brutal terrorist whose hands are stained with the blood of civilians."

  Opening the possibilities for security escalation on all fronts

This assassination incident was followed by many military and security scenarios and analyses. In this context, Lebanese military and security sources spoke to Hawar news agency, considering that the repeated assassinations are primarily intelligence operations, and adding that what increases the accurate and successful implementation of operations is the use of smart weapons and advanced technologies. Such as those used in the Al-Arouri assassination, such as drones, smart weapons, and ultra-precise missiles that identified the target without borders or geographical restrictions. Technology has given additional capabilities for remote targeting without the need to deploy special forces on the ground, and this has not been witnessed in any incidents. Previous assassination.

These military and security sources believed that Israel's strategic vision for the security escalation has become more precise and clear after the assassination of Al-Arouri, as it became clear that this strategy is based on targeting Hamas leaders. They also indicated that Hezbollah is likely to respond to the assassinations taking place on the territory. Lebanese, including the assassination of Al-Arouri, which makes the scene more ambiguous in the region.

T/Satt.

ANHA