US can no longer maintain its position - Seevan Saeed

One can easily see that since October the 7th, security and political events have profoundly impacted the global order. While the USA consistently urged Russia to cease its war against Ukraine and labeled Vladimir Putin as a war criminal; conversely, the USA has shown reluctance in addressing the Gaza massacre and atrocities against the Palestinian people. Moreover, Washington is refraining from calling Netanyahu a war criminal. On the other hand, both Russia and China, emerging as robust challengers to the USA hegemony. They are drawing closer to each other, expanding their resistance against Western dominance led by the USA and NATO. 

Arguably, this conflict between the three global powers encompasses three aspects: economic, military, and diplomatic. Additionally, various regional and local actors and proxies exert their influence on events in the several regions such Middle East, Black Sea, and South China Sea regions.

As mentioned above, there are three aspects of the conflict. 1- economic and financial aspect. 2- Military presence and Security aspect. 3- Deplomatic  maneuverers and imposing hegemony. Them three aspect are reflecting in the tactical behaviours and strategic plans of all the three global powers in all the regions. In terms of economic aspect, both Belt and Road Initiative with the leadership of China and the development Road with the leadership India are intertwined project that could make complicated mixture of interests overlap  and conflict among all global powers at the same time.

In terms of Military and security aspect, it can be easily noticed that the USA can no longer maintain its status as the sole global power and dictate major interests. In the Middle East especially, the USA’s hegemony is diminished that made her rethink of its strategy and tactics even to an extend that the USA is prompting a reconsideration of withdrawing its Military presence in the region, or at least in Syria and Iraq. However, the events in Gaza have slowed down the plan of withdrawing its Military presence and served as a wake-up call for the USA, highlighting how the Gaza crisis could potentially enable Russia and China, along with their regional proxies, to gain an advantage.

In terms of Diplomacy, One can easily understand that this is aspect getting more active as the USA difficulties in managing the case of the Middle East making it almost certain that it’s no longer in its hand. Meaning that, Russia and behind Russia, of course  China have cleverly created another hot and fresh crisis that made almost everyone forget about Black Sea conflict and south china tensions.. Now the USA is under attack of Chines and Russian proxy powers such as Iran and its proxy Shia militia groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and even in the red sea and of course to some extend Turkey could be used as proxy by Russia and China to serve the purpose. Hence, the USA is actively seeking diplomatic solutions to navigate through this crisis.

The frequent trips of Antony Blinken to the middle East since October the 7th, is the result of this wakeup call of the USA that is swiftly loosing its hegemony in the region. However, the good news for the USA is that almost all arabic states accepted its plan for militarily eradicating Hamas and finding a solution for the besieged people of Rafah- Gazza and rescue Netanyahu from the justice due to his war criminal charges. In this case, both Egypt and UAE as two main Arab countries are happy with the plan; let alone all humanitarian crises of Palestinians and more than at least 25000 casualties since October the 7th.

Conversely, China and Russia are leveraging BRICS and regional powers like Iran and Turkey to back Russian plan and undermine the hegemony of the USA and NATO in the world. Arguably, to a certain extend, they have been successful in their strategy. Therefore, this active counter diplomacy of Russia, heading the USA to compelling with changing its plan again.

As witnessed in 2011, the Arab Spring unfolded, bringing about significant changes to the Western agenda in the region. However, this time, the USA is seeking strong and reliable allies as it considers reducing or ending its military presence in the region. The aim is to find trustworthy forces capable of safeguarding its interests. Initially, the USA explored alliances with Sunni groups in Iraq and Syria, but this inadvertently empowered Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Subsequently, attention turned to Kurdish and pro-Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria. Yet, the Kurds in Iraq struggled to demonstrate a robust presence to earn the USA's trust. Currently, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) appear to be the most viable option for protecting American interests in Syria while maintaining a balanced relationship with the USA in the region.

Furthermore, this shift in the USA's strategy may have broader implications, potentially altering the situation for Kurds in Turkey and prompting new political dynamics within the Turkish state. Recently, a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted several noteworthy points. The report suggested that the PKK made significant contributions in the fight against ISIS alongside US forces. It also criticised Turkey for its counterterrorism efforts, arguing that they pose challenges for NATO and the USA in the region. Consequently, there is a possibility that the PKK could be removed from the list of terrorist organisations, paving the way for a new round of peace talks between the Kurdish people and the Turkish state. Given the current circumstances and the failures of radical political transformations attempted during the Arab Spring, this represents a new facet of the USA's regional strategy.

Given the formidable presence of Russia and China in the region, the USA faces obstacles in fully executing its new order. Consequently, diplomatic manoeuvring is essential, whether in the Security Council or across regions like the Black Sea and the Middle East. The aim is to reach agreements with Russia and China on the issues mentioned earlier. This diplomatic approach is crucial for navigating the complex geopolitical landscape and finding common ground amidst differing interests and agendas.

Seevan Saeed, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Shaanxi University in China, is a researcher at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.

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