Political Researcher: Attacks on Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh block peace efforts

Mercenaries of the Syrian interim government, backed by the Turkish occupation, continue to shell the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh, and Bani Zaid in the city of Aleppo, following the failure of their attempts to enter these areas, as the Internal Security Forces there respond to the attacks. The ongoing shelling has so far resulted in the martyrdom of 9 civilians and the injury of more than 60 others, whose names have been documented by our agency.

Fragility Amid the Absence of a Comprehensive National Settlement

Commenting on this, political studies researcher Samer Dahi said:

“The clashes in Aleppo point to the fragility of partial settlements resulting from repeated political deadlocks between the Autonomous Administration and the Damascus government, in the absence of a comprehensive national settlement based on genuine national dialogue. They cannot be viewed as an isolated security incident, but rather as a direct reflection of a political vacuum that has not been filled with consensual solutions capable of consolidating stability.”

He added:

“On the other hand, the clashes represent a negotiating pressure tool aimed at breaking the stagnation affecting closed negotiation rounds, as escalation is used to rearrange power balances and influence the negotiation track. It does not appear that either party seeks military decisiveness at this stage. They also reflect a conflict over the interpretation of negotiation outcomes, in the absence of clear and binding agreements, which explains why the intensity of the clashes remains within a controlled ceiling by both sides.”

Search for Security Dominance

On the direct causes, Dahi believes that “the failure to implement the March 10 agreement stands out due to fundamental disagreements that were not resolved from the outset, in addition to a race for security dominance in an area that the government views as hosting formations outside its control, while its residents see them as their only security guarantee.”

According to him, the clashes reveal “the failure of the process of integrating or reorganizing security forces within areas of ethnic, political, and religious diversity, and the persistence of mistrust, making centralized settlements unworkable without deeper handling of the issue of non-regular forces—bringing us back to the moment of the ‘Victory Conference.’”

Reproducing Cycles of Violence and Obstructing Stability

He explained: “If we broaden the analysis, the clashes constitute a dual test of the state’s ability to extend its administration without wide escalation, and the Autonomous Administration’s ability to protect its local security. They also cannot be separated from the regional context, as escalation in Aleppo intersects with international moves that may reopen the northern Syria file, and each party’s efforts to mobilize its allies ahead of upcoming negotiation rounds.”

He concluded by saying: “Ultimately, the continuation of this pattern of escalation warns of reproducing local cycles of violence that are liable to expand, and confirms that the current political track, in its fragmented and unstable form, remains incapable of producing real stability.”

a.k

ANHA