Escalation threatens the collapse of truce in Yemen

Following an attack launched by the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group on government forces’ positions in the Al-Ab area in the border Saada governorate, which resulted in the death of 27 of their fighters, government sources observed the group continuing to amass personnel and weapons toward three main fronts: Marib, Lahj, and the western coast. This signals a threat to the truce sponsored by the United Nations since April 2022.

The recent attack is considered one of the largest violations of the ceasefire and coincided with broad military movements by the Houthis toward the Marib fronts, Hodeidah governorate, and southern Yemen areas.

Field information indicates plans to besiege Marib city from several axes and cut supply lines, under the pretext of releasing a tribal leader detained by government authorities.

Meanwhile, the Yemeni government succeeded in repelling the attacks and foiled several advancement attempts, amid security warnings urging residents to avoid desert roads between Al-Jawf, Marib, and Hadramout governorates.

On another front, security sources in Aden reported uncovering cells cooperating with the Houthis that are recruiting youth from government-controlled areas. Local reports also confirmed the arrival of Houthi military reinforcements to contact zones south of Hodeidah, supported by modern weapons likely supplied through Iranian-backed channels.

These movements, according to UN warnings, reflect the fragile military situation and the unpredictability of its developments. The increasing escalation threatens the collapse of the truce, especially as the Houthis exploit the Gaza war to intensify mobilization efforts, as confirmed by Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in his recent speech.

ANHA