Egyptian researcher: Isolation hinders peace process, weakens chances of political solution in Turkey

The Kurdistan Liberation Movement confirmed on May 5, the anniversary of the PKK's declaration of its own dissolution, that in order to advance the peace process and build a democratic society in Turkey, the status of leader Abdullah Ocalan must be determined by a political decision, alongside taking legal steps that ensure the free development of the democratic path. It also emphasized that the laying down of arms and full engagement in democratic political work are linked to these legal measures.

The talks between the two parties have been at a standstill for some time now, in light of the continued isolation imposed on leader Abdullah Ocalan. In this context, the researcher in Middle Eastern affairs and identity politics, Dr. Taha Ali Ahmed, spoke to ANHA agency, highlighting the main challenges facing this path.

Taha Ali Ahmed began his talk by emphasizing the necessity of implementing the peace process, pointing out that any serious peace process requires an environment that allows active parties to genuinely contribute to the dialog. He added, "In this context, enabling key figures like Abdullah Ocalan to communicate and express themselves may contribute to building bridges of trust, which is an essential element in any negotiation process."

He explained: "The success of the process requires the Turkish authorities to show more seriousness through serious steps within a broader framework that includes political will, legal guaranties, a general climate supportive of peaceful solutions, and the Turkish side adopting the logic of 'partner in the homeland' and moving away from a sense of national superiority, treating the elements of the peace process as an inevitable necessity imposed by the interests of the Turkish state, and also as a guarantor of the security and stability of Turkish society."

The absence of Ocalan and its impact on the effectiveness of negotiations

Regarding the possibility of any negotiations succeeding in the absence of physical freedom for leader Abdullah Ocalan and his inability to communicate, and the lack of granting him the "right to hope," Ali Ahmed explained: "The one who formulated the general framework of the initiative from Mr. Abdullah Ocalan's side is the same person, meaning he understands all the details and intricacies of the initiative. He also has a precise vision of the regional context and its intersections with the local Turkish reality, in addition to his established position among the Kurds throughout the Middle East and around the world, due to the role he played in keeping the Kurdish issue alive on the map of regional interactions over the past decades."

Pointing out that "international experiences show that direct and transparent communication between the main parties in any negotiation process enhances the chances of success, especially in complex issues related to the security and stability of societies, and in turbulent moments like those experienced by Turkey and its regional surroundings."

Continuing: "Therefore, the absence of Mr. Abdullah Ocalan as a negotiator and key actor in overseeing all the details of the peace process he originally prepared may limit the effectiveness of the dialog and weaken the ability to build sustainable understandings." And although it is possible to achieve some steps through indirect channels, the absence of Mr. Abdullah Ocalan and his continued imprisonment will make any effort less effective, and his absence will hinder any desired progress.

Isolation deepens complexities and hinders solutions.

The researcher Taha Ali Ahmed believes that the continuation of isolation constitutes an obstacle to reaching a political solution and establishing the foundations of a democratic society, saying: "Isolation, in any political context, hinders the flow of ideas and the exchange of visions, negatively affecting the chances of reaching consensus solutions." In the case of Abdullah Ocalan, the continuation of restrictions is likely to complicate the situation further, especially since we are talking about a central figure as the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its historical leader, who holds a firm position among its various levels and bases.

He adds that: "Political solutions are always based on dialog and mutual trust between the parties." And if we look today at what the Turkish side has offered, despite the steps taken by PKK to prove seriousness over the past months, we find that the official response from the Turkish side has not reached the expected level, creating a supportive negotiating environment for a political solution that would bring stability and enhance security both within Turkey and in the regional neighborhood such as Syria and Iraq as well.

Conditions for turning the initiative into a practical path

The researcher Taha Ali Ahmed emphasized that the freedom of leader Abdullah Ocalan is a fundamental condition for starting a serious peace process, saying: "The freedom of Abdullah Ocalan is an important condition for the serious progress of the peace process." And if we look at previous experiences, specifically the negotiation process that took place between 2013 and 2015, despite the progress made, one of the reasons for its incomplete execution was the lack of full freedom for Ocalan.

He added: "Therefore, the issue of Ocalan's liberation and release cannot be underestimated, as he still possesses historical, symbolic, and organizational legitimacy within the party, and his ability to influence ceasefire decisions or regulate the negotiation pace is not a 'theoretical' matter, but has been proven in previous instances." Therefore, providing conditions for more free and effective communication with him can contribute to building an initial level of trust between the parties, accelerating the response within the party's organizational structure, and reducing the risks of division or differences in positions within the Kurdish movement.

On the other hand, he pointed out that "the continued characterization of the Kurdistan Workers' Party as an 'enemy' in the official Turkish discourse reflects the dominance of the security approach, which weakens the negotiating environment and undermines trust even in the presence of positive signals." On the other hand, any symbolic steps, such as reducing armed actions or declaring intentions for de-escalation cannot be considered a "final victory" as sometimes promoted. He focuses his research on issues of geopolitical conflicts, the Druze, and the influence of minorities in the Syrian and regional arenas.

Researcher Taha Ali Ahmed emphasizes the importance of Abdullah Öcalan's free participation in transforming his initiative into a practical political path, which requires distinguishing between the symbolic-political dimension and the actual ability to achieve a breakthrough. He explains, "First, we must have a distinction between the 'symbolic-political importance' and the 'practical ability to make a breakthrough.'" In terms of symbolism, Abdullah Ocalan still constitutes a fundamental intellectual and political reference within the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). This was proven by the experiences of the 2013 and 2015 processes, especially the Newroz 2013 declaration, where his direct intervention could quickly translate into field calmness and a relative regulation of the organization's pace. This precedent means that his "active" (not just symbolic) participation remains an important tool for creating a moment of initiation or revival for any negotiation process.

He adds: "Despite the multiple circles, levels, and centers of decision-making within the Workers' Party, ranging from the Qandil Mountains to the political networks linked to it within Turkey, Ocalan's central position remains akin to a cornerstone in this framework."

He points out that the Turkish political environment has undergone significant transformations since the collapse of the negotiation process in 2015, with the rise of a security approach and the shrinking space available for political solutions, alongside the state's sensitivity toward any form that could be interpreted as negotiations with an armed organization.

On a broader level, he points out that the changes in Syria and Iraq have complicated the issue and linked it to security balances that go beyond the internal Turkish framework. He said, "From here, Ocalan's participation freely can be an important enabling factor, but it will not automatically turn into a viable political path unless three parallel conditions are met:

First, the existence of a political will within the Turkish state to transition from a purely security approach to a political-social approach.

Secondly, developing a discourse and program that is accepted not only within the Workers' Party but also by all legitimate Kurdish political actors within Turkey.

Thirdly, building a clear institutional framework for negotiation that includes mutual guaranties, implementation mechanisms, and a timeline, so that the process does not remain hostage to personal trust or informal communications.

The Middle East and identity politics researcher concludes that "Ocalan's freedom of movement opens the door, but it will also require sincere efforts to build the path, which necessitates redefining the rules of the game between Ankara and the Kurdish movement, and transforming the issue from a purely national security matter to a political and societal issue that can be managed within state institutions." Without that, any efforts will be prone to falter or collapse as happened in previous instances.

Who is Taha Ali Ahmed?

Dr. Taha Ali Ahmed is an Egyptian researcher and political expert specializing in identity studies, minority affairs, and Middle East and North Africa policies. He writes strategic analyzes and assessments, focusing his research on issues of geopolitical conflicts, the Druze, and the influence of minorities in the Syrian and regional arenas.