​​​​​​​Tripartite meeting between Moscow, Damascus and Ankara not go further than Sochi agreement.

 On December 28, the Russian capital, Moscow, witnessed a tripartite meeting between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his counterpart in the Turkish occupation state, Hulusi Akar, and his Syrian counterpart, Ali Mahmoud Abbas.

 This is the first meeting between these three countries at the ministerial level since 2011. After this meeting, the fascist Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his desire to hold a bilateral meeting in the near future with Bashar al-Assad, whom he described as "Bashar the killer."

 At such a stage when the presidential elections are approaching in Turkey, why are they seeking to hold meetings with Damascus?  What's the plan?  What was discussed in Moscow?  And what is the position of the United States of America and Iran on this?  These and other questions, we asked the expert on Middle East affairs, Hamida Ringuz Oğlari.

Oğlari  indicated that, with the exception of the Sochi agreement, there were no other points that were discussed in the tripartite meeting between Damascus, Ankara and Moscow, and said: "The three Astana parties have been meeting until now without the presence of the Syrian state. The last tripartite meeting was without Iran, but it was the first time in which Turkey and Syria meet at the same table, and no other issues were raised at the table of this meeting except for the Sochi agreement.

She explained that Turkey is expected to implement the promises it made in 2016, saying: "Turkish, Russian and Iranian initiatives in 2016 resulted in a ceasefire decision in all parts of Syria. Both Damascus and the opposition also expressed their willingness to implement this decision. Turkey became the guarantor."  However, although Turkey has confirmed that it will ensure the continuation of this ceasefire until 2019, the crisis in the region, especially in Idlib, has worsened. HTS has expanded its control at this stage. The Astana meetings confirm the sovereignty of Syria  and the territorial integrity of Syria and the end of terrorism, but Ankara uses the groups that Damascus considers "terrorist" on the one hand, and makes them fight for its benefit on the other hand.

 “The proposed conditions are very difficult and dangerous for Turkey.”

She indicated that Putin is taking advantage of Erdogan's confusion and the pressure he is suffering from before the elections, and stated that they are acting with the logic of "the time has come to pressure Erdogan" to implement the Sochi agreement.

 Oğlari explained that Erdogan needs propaganda to “befriend old enemies again,” and continued, “Because of the collapse of the economy, there is a need for hot money from the Gulf countries and the postponement of gas debts by Putin. Putin considers all these needs as opportunities, so he made them accept.”  "On Syrian terms. What are these conditions? Turkey's withdrawal from the occupied territories? Cessation of its support for jihadist terrorism and the opening of the M4 trade route linking Latakia-Aleppo."

  She indicated that they are seeking to implement the Sochi terms, but Turkey cannot do this in the short or medium term, as it has no plan regarding the thousands of fighters it has trained, paid and used.  

Hamida Ringuz Oglari continued saying: "Why did Erdogan accept these difficult conditions, waiting for a meeting with Assad? It can be said that in this tripartite meeting an election gift was presented to Erdogan. It is a point 'Turkey and Syria will fight separatist groups together' and it is expected to be granted  Erdogan's point is 'a victory story' and 'effective election propaganda'."

 Iranian position

Oglari indicated that Iran did not participate in the meeting and said: "Instead of Iran, this time the meeting took place directly with Syria, and this indicates that they will implement the Sochi agreement in a more tangible manner."

 Oglari explained that Iran has pushed its relations with Syria to higher levels and revealed the Iranian President's visit to Damascus soon, pointing out that this visit is the first visit on this level in many years.

 What does the American position indicate?

 Oglari referred to the American position on this tripartite meeting and said: "Of course, neither Damascus nor any other party wants a rapprochement between Kurdish and Turkish politics."

Oglari commented on the policy pursued by the United States of America in the Syrian crisis, saying: “As has happened many times before, the United States of America has always undermined the Kurdish dialogue process with Damascus through Russia. This resulted in giving both the United States and Russia the light green for Turkey to carry out "limited" operations. The United States has undermined the Kurdish rapprochement with Damascus on the one hand and flattered Turkey on the other. Russia, for its part, has warned the Kurds through Turkey. The current stage is different. The United States cannot accept any rapprochement between Turkey, a member of the  NATO and its necessary ally and Damascus, so it expressed its strong rejection of this.The main reason for this firm stance and more severe than the stance taken regarding the Turkish air operation is that the US sanctions on Syria will be partially eased.Because the opening of the M4 highway and dialogue with a neighboring country that has the longest border with it will relieve Syria  in all respects, it contributes to the improvement of its situation.”

 "The mercenaries in the occupied territories will direct their weapons towards the Turkish state."

  Oglari indicated that the meeting discussed the situation of mercenaries as well, and said: "The issue of the fate of these jihadist groups remains a problem that no one knows its solution. Turkey may be able to deal with some groups within the Syrian National Army and dictate their orders to them, but it can never convince them all.  Many groups have expressed their rejection of this normalization and went out in protests saying, "We will not reconcile. These angry groups have great energy. On the other hand, there are groups that Turkey did not guarantee, but it has been supporting since 2012. In Idlib there is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and in northern Latakia  there are members of the Turkistan Islamic Party. No one can guarantee that they will not point their weapons at Turkey."

"The Turkish state plans to hand over the occupied territories to mercenaries"

 Hamida Ringuz Oglari explained that the Turkish state plans to withdraw from the occupied areas and she said: "It is as if Turkey had concluded a secret agreement several months ago with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham."

 Ringuz Oglari continued her speech, referring to Turkey's negotiations with the mercenary groups, and said: "The Hamza Brigades, Suleiman Shah and Sultan Murad, which are currently closest to Turkey, joined Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham seized the areas under Turkey's control. It is possible that the Justice and Development Party  plans to withdraw from Syria and leave this area to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.The groups within the Syrian National Army that refuse to lay down their arms also join Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Justice and Development Party says that it has withdrawn from Syria and in turn escalates the war in Syria through this jihadist army.I think they have  plans of this kind, but this is very dangerous, as the anger of the jihadists who were left alone may affect Turkey as well.”

 'The goal is to eliminate AANEA

 Hamida Ringuz Oglari continued her speech, saying: "The Syrian definition of terrorism differs from the Turkish definition. The jihadist groups that Turkey considers "moderate opposition" are considered terrorist groups by Damascus. On the other hand, Turkey considers the Democratic Union Party and the People's Protection Units to be the only terrorist group, while it does not consider  the PYD in this way.I think they are now associating them with the PKK, seeking to reach a common point with Turkey.It is not yet clear to what extent this will be achieved, but there is information that the first condition for Damascus is that Turkey takes concrete steps,  Will Turkey withdraw from Syria? Will it abandon support for the jihadists? These steps are being followed up."

Oglari explained that Damascus doubts whether such steps will be taken after the elections or not. "There are rumors that the negotiations will not go beyond mere electoral propaganda," she said.

  Oglari concluded her speech by saying: "Before now, Trump's Special Representative James Jeffrey made this proposal 'It is not permissible to anger an important ally like Turkey because of the PKK. Turkey's security concerns are real'. Trump had a model in this field, which is the liquidation of the movement's personalities and groups  Kurdish, which Turkey does not accept, and the establishment of a copy of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is a friend of the Justice and Development Party in Rojava. Trump tried hard for this, but he did not achieve anything. The American formula that is being discussed these days does not include the Kurds.  The revival of the Raqqa Revolutionaries group, which disintegrated after the elimination of ISIS and their deployment on the border between Turkey and Syria instead of the Syrian Democratic Forces, but it seems that this is in line with the method of the United States of America.  Turkey too. Expectations are very different, but the facts are on the ground, and they have been waiting for a solution for 11 years.

 A

 ANHA